October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I never thought if I wanted to visit Rob I could do so by boat, but here we are. (Or Jet-Ski)

It also isn't just warm SW flow too

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Trend north! 

No.  I want to be on the cold side with this.  Could be a really raw / wet day.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

It also isn't just warm SW flow too

This certainly has a 1990 flavor.  Both quite wet and chilly.

[snow_wizard]

38 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Nice surprise PSCZ rain here. Interesting that the preceding front only gave a bit of drizzle this morning, but the PSCZ is producing an hour and counting of steady rain here. It’s a nice surprise when the CZ is this far south. It would be nice for this area to get in on a CZ following an arctic front this Winter!

We do get them from time to time.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I never thought if I wanted to visit Rob I could do so by boat, but here we are. (Or Jet-Ski)

I can't even believe we MIGHT see this much rain. Even half of that. What a colossal pattern reversal.

5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

That's some SERIOUS powder! WOW!

[snow_wizard]

51 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Plz don’t Jim us 

Good lord dude.

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Tuesday looks pretty DYNAMIC on the GFS!

If this were December people would be freaking out on here right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

15 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I suggest Atmospheric Wrath.

or my really old name, Gradient Keeper

6z GFS in 4 hours 10 minutes

[Anti Marine Layer]

54 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Plz don’t Jim us 

Can I MML you?

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

If this were December people would be freaking out on here right now.

And a decent windstorm for Portland as well

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I can't even believe we MIGHT see this much rain. Even half of that. What a colossal pattern reversal.

That's some SERIOUS powder! WOW!

I was called insane by some people for saying the pattern would flip hard when it did.  Someone got some egg on their face it appears.

[Sonny Summers]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

or my really old name, Gradient Keeper

6z GFS in 4 hours 10 minutes

11 degree blizzard

[Kolk1604]

On 10/1/2022 at 12:14 AM, snow_wizard said:

Might be a huge transition.  Definitely not for a while though.

For those keeping score at home.

[Front Ranger]

47 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

PDX is still 5.8 degrees above their monthly record after today.

That means the next 11 days will have to average 49.7 or lower to avoid a monthly record there. Pretty unlikely given that there will be plenty of cloudy nights coming up and likely few opportunities for lows well into the 40s there.

I think we can all agree that the important thing is OLM is in no danger of having a record warm month.

For those keeping score at home, record warm months the past couple years:

PDX: 3

OLM: 0

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

or my really old name, Gradient Keeper

6z GFS in 4 hours 10 minutes

I'm hoping for a good snowstorm with strong east wind this winter! February 2014 was really nice, 6pm temp of around 18 degrees and heavy blowing snow. 2016/2017 also had a lot of east wind here.
Sometimes the problem with wind is it's hard to figure out how much snow has fallen but while it's snowing it's very fun.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was called insane by some people for saying the pattern would flip hard when it did.  Someone got some egg on their face it appears.

I never doubted ya, but wow I wasn't expecting this extreme of a pattern flip.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

I think we can all agree that the important thing is OLM is in no danger of having a record warm month.

For those keeping score at home, record warm months the past couple years:

PDX: 3

OLM: 0

 

[Omegaraptor]

13 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Record early ski resort opening?

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Record early ski resort opening?

That would be insane after what we just went through.  The weather has been psychotic the last couple of years.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That would be insane after what we just went through.  The weather has been psychotic the last couple of years.

And then late November maybe we'll see a record breaking arctic blast/snowstorms!

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The CPC winter update clearly shows they expect the core of the winter to have the highest chance of being cold here.  Nov - Jan shows equal chance, but Dec - Feb has a solid chance of cold.

The evidence points to January, but the ongoing January curse certainly mitigates that to some extent.

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If this were December people would be freaking out on here right now.

[MossMan]

Time to bring back this classic! 

 

[snow_wizard]

Taking a quick look at the GFS based meteograms for the rest of the month it appears SEA would average about 49 point something for the remainder of the month if it's correct.

[Omegaraptor]

Would be nice to have this as the default background state until end of November then switch to continental cold. Then hopefully with how insanely persistent the patterns have been this year we’ll get consistent Yukon air pipelined into the Western states until March

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Must've been a wet one.

snowy and super cold

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I never doubted ya, but wow I wasn't expecting this extreme of a pattern flip.

I wasn't referring to you in that post in case you were wondering.

[Snownerd3000]

29 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Time to bring back this classic! 

 

LMAO that one car :40 to 1:20 hit every damn thing in sight like a car pinball game smacking off other cars and power poles. I laughed so hard I got tears.

[NWbyNW]

Mr. Cliff Mass had some pretty astounding images in his blog recently.

First here is a graph of air pollution in Seattle and it's actually long enough we can see years worth of data including 2020.  I found this very interesting. It also shows the longevity of our smoke now compared to 2020.  

Then this one blew my mind.  I've never seen imagery of the smoke from 2020 before.  He had a photo of the smoke in this current event, and the smoke layer in 2020.  That is... amazing.

2022

2020

Just figured you all might want to see these.  Pretty astounding to me.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Deweydog]

Sweet Baby Jesus (in a tuxedo t-shirt)

AQI down to 12! Going below zero perhaps if the clouds hold off?!!

[Deweydog]

RIP trees thanks to all the ground saturated by the tears of rain lovers over the last several weeks.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looks very wet for Portland. Enjoy    

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

RIP trees thanks to all the ground saturated by the tears of rain lovers over the last several weeks.

Obviously you’re joking I know, but drought stress on trees could lead to more extensive tree damage than usual if we see an even modest windstorm in the next few months. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Obviously you’re joking I know, but drought stress on trees could lead to more extensive tree damage than usual if we see an even modest windstorm in the next few months. 

Between the leaves and brittleness, it probably won’t be pretty. Survival of the fittest!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4