October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS looking solid? Welp, that's it for me. Up at 5:30 AM then start work outside before 8. Hoping 6z/GEFS is a blockbuster! Good night!

[Jbolin]

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah LOL. I'm not sure which year I started that.

2014

[Jbolin]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

EPS looking solid? Welp, that's it for me. Up at 5:30 AM then start work outside before 8. Hoping 6z/GEFS is a blockbuster! Good night!

Has your knee given you any insight as to when we should expect our first arctic blast?

[Iceresistance]

7 hours ago, Cloud said:

What makes Oklahoma difficult to forecast? For example: it’s difficult for us here because of our microclimates. 

A lot of things, conditional severe weather setups, shallow Arctic air that is not usually picked up very well on the models, and could have a tale of two seasons in a single day! Winter in the NW and Panhandle, and Spring here and to the Southeast!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

No windstorm on the GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

4 hours ago, JBolin said:

2014

Ohhh, much sooner than that. Way back on Mark's Fox12 Blog probably 2007.

4 hours ago, JBolin said:

Has your knee given you any insight as to when we should expect our first arctic blast?

Not even a little. Nothing cryptic. It has been real nice and cooperative for quite awhile now.

12z ECMWF in 4 hours 34 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS ridiculously wet

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

6z GEFS ridiculously wet

Not surprising to go into a wet pattern for a bit tbh 

[Gradient Keeper]

10/21/22 6:39 AM Satellite Imagery

Look at all of that moisture aimed right at us. Nice.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 hours ago, JBolin said:

2014

Oops. Yeah the "C'MON!" thing. Might have been then lol. I must be tired I thought you meant the Gradient Keeper name.

[RentonHill]

Anyone gettin wet yet??? Heading over Stevens later this morning hoping to catch some flakeage will keep y’all updated with endless shittie pics and gifs 

[Gradient Keeper]

10/21/22 6:57 AM Winter Weather Advisory

.... and so it begins!

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Portland OR

415 AM PDT Fri Oct 21 2022

Cascades in Lane County-

Including the cities of McKenzie Pass and Willamette Pass

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET...

 

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Cascades in Lane County above 4000 feet.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Willamette Pass along Highway 58 will likely be impacted by snow covered roads, especially early Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest accumulations will be above the Cascade passes.

[The Cats Meow]

I traveled through Yellowstone and the Grand Tetons this summer.  Looks like areas of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming are about to get their winter on!  If you've never been you should go.  It's a great drive and the natural beauty is stunning.

On the drive back we went through the heaviest thunder and lightning storm I've ever been in near Butte.  Wow!  Almost had to pull the car over.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

I traveled through Yellowstone and the Grand Tetons this summer.  Looks like areas of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming are about to get their winter on!  If you've never been you should go.  It's a great drive and the natural beauty is stunning.

On the drive back we went through the heaviest thunder and lightning storm I've ever been in near Butte.  Wow!  Almost had to pull the car over.

Beautiful pictures! Love your username too

[Meatyorologist]

It really is a shock to the system out there. 51F and cloudy with a light breeze and the "smell" of fall. Definitely looks and feels the part.

We've had overnight lows this cold this fall, but not with clean air and clouds, and definitely not with a breeze.

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

I traveled through Yellowstone and the Grand Tetons this summer.  Looks like areas of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming are about to get their winter on!  If you've never been you should go.  It's a great drive and the natural beauty is stunning.

On the drive back we went through the heaviest thunder and lightning storm I've ever been in near Butte.  Wow!  Almost had to pull the car over.

Great pics! I've only been to Yellowstone once and Montana twice as a kid. I must go back. It is truly majestic all of the beauty and wildlife.

[Meatyorologist]

I can not WAIT until the grass is green and the biosphere has had its proper drink.

It's just setting in now that we're about to head into a truly active wet season pattern. Not scrambling for the smallest scraps of dead systems, not wading through weeks and weeks of torching so we can get a day that is one degree below normal. Real wind, rain, cold.

I think the weird, apocalyptic weather of the last month has taken a toll on me. It ending is certainly helping with my mood.

[Jbolin]

39 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Oops. Yeah the "C'MON!" thing. Might have been then lol. I must be tired I thought you meant the Gradient Keeper name.

Nah,

[Jbolin]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I can not WAIT until the grass is green and the biosphere has had its proper drink.

It's just setting in now that we're about to head into a truly active wet season pattern. Not scrambling for the smallest scraps of dead systems, not wading through weeks and weeks of torching so we can get a day that is one degree below normal. Real wind, rain, cold.

I think the weird, apocalyptic weather of the last month has taken a toll on me. It ending is certainly helping with my mood.

Ohhhhh, you said biosphere.

Ha, my bad,

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 hours ago, Dave said:

I recognized the "C'mon!" instantly. It's been trademarked.

I recognized him as Rob from the PDX Fox 12 Weather Blog years ago.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

No windstorm on the GFS

But plenty of rain! Yay!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

The PSCZ in action.

[Doinko]

KPTV is mentioning a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms tomorrow?

[Jbolin]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The PSCZ in action.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 43 here. Pretty strange to get one of the coldest lows of the season so far with overcast skies and a well mixed atmosphere.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, JBolin said:

 

Actually was a good illustration of the c-zone... with wind to the north and south clearing out the smoke and calm under the c-zone area and very smoky.     

The c-zone was lifted north by increasing SW flow ahead of the incoming system and that is when the Seattle area was finally cleared out of smoke.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

At last! Rain and 48˚F. And an AQI of 10. What a delightful morning!

And more of the same to come…

[Jbolin]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually was a good illustration of the c-zone... with wind to the north and south clearing out the smoke and calm under the c-zone area and very smoky.     

The c-zone was lifted north by increasing SW flow ahead of the incoming system and that is when the Seattle area was finally cleared out of smoke.   

DUDE, have you not had a chance to selectively pick out all the "dry" periods over the next 10 days on the ECMWF?

It was a joooooke.

[Gradient Keeper]

12 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

KPTV is mentioning a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms tomorrow?

Yup. Cold air aloft 500mb temps -30c. Slight chance.

[Gradient Keeper]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Low of 43 here. Pretty strange to get one of the coldest lows of the season so far with overcast skies and a well mixed atmosphere.

Strange, but dang nice! Looks more like a Winter sky this morning to me.

12z GFS in 46 minutes

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, JBolin said:

DUDE, have you not had a chance to selectively pick out all the "dry" periods over the next 10 days on the ECMWF?

It was a joooooke.

Ahhh... got it.   I was thinking last night that it was a perfect illustration of the c-zone.   

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Ahhh... got it.   I was thinking last night that it was a perfect illustration of the c-zone.   

F***in-a Tim

[Jbolin]

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Strange, but dang nice! Looks more like a Winter sky this morning to me.

12z GFS in 46 minutes

It's got that hint of, diffuse-ness that we so rarely get to enjoy.

[FroYoBro]

Waking up the clean air and 43 degrees. 
 

 

Ahhhhhh, the long summer is finally over!

[Anti Marine Layer]

Wet your appetite. Rainy season has arrived.

[Phishy Wx]

turned the heat on this morning for the first time due to wife nagging.

 

It's coming

[Chewbacca Defense]

I can confirm real live actual raindrops are falling on my head here in Bellingham!  And I can join @MossMan with giving wet deck reports!

[Randyc321]

14 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I like NW flow.  A lot more variety and chances for cold nights than WSW flow.  It blows my mind some people want gross SW flow at this point.  We will get plenty of action with the pattern being shown, and it will be more enjoyable IMO.

Well, actually we just want rain.  Any way we can get it. 

So with rain now incoming, and the skies being clear, I would expect the desire for cold to increase exponentially.  Your posts about wanting just cold will probably be less scrutinized.

 

[Randyc321]

12 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

No idea why I'm still using my artist name for my username. I think it's time for a change.... Hmmm....

00z GFS in 33 minutes

Atmospheric Wraith was a great username way back when you used it, but I see you chose @Gradient Keeper

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I can confirm real live actual raindrops are falling on my head here in Bellingham!  And I can join @MossMan with giving wet deck reports!

Just starting to sprinkle at work (which is 1 mile from my house) so I just documented the end of the dead crusty grass and dry pavement here!