October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

PDO is a mystery to me and its probably irrelevant in terms of looking forward... but it looks like the strongly negative PDO run is fading.   This almost looks like a +PDO signal to me.

 

That’s still pretty balls-deep negative.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Deweydog

[Cloud]

I think it's quite rare to see an almost direct westerly flow like this. Extend also quite far out into the pacific. Almost AR-like but not really?

[Sonny Summers]

The temp has held steady or dropped a little bit since midnight.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Despite this being late, we crash hard and fast... it's as if mother nature decides to flip the switch. Feels quite chilly outside.

A straight lurch from summer into winter. Would say it feels like the Rockies, but there, a snowstorm would probably be involved. Literally remember seeing 8" of snow falling on trees that still had mostly green leaves in my time there.

[Sonny Summers]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I think it's quite rare to see an almost direct westerly flow like this. Extend also quite far out into the pacific. Almost AR-like but not really?

Thanks for the graphic

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That’s still pretty balls-deep negative.

GOA also looks like it is trending cooler 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3.3 mm (.13") so far today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

September PDO was -2.27

[Cloud]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

PDO is a mystery to me and its probably irrelevant in terms of looking forward... but it looks like the strongly negative PDO run is fading.   This almost looks like a +PDO signal to me.

 

 Except we are still in a very strong negative regime. 

[Sonny Summers]

24 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I missed the 12z GFS/GEFS. I was busy cleaning the gutters, patio cover, putting the A/C and BBQ to bed for the past 3 hours. Apparently my life has devolved to watching the rain with Judge Judy on in the background? Nope. *Flicks channels... Nah... Nope.... Nah... Ahhh yeah Stephen A. Smith yelling. There we go!

18z GFS in 3 hours 12 minutes

Judge Judy and Stephen A Smith should do a show together-with lots of yelling! I kow that's a bit of a stretch. Together they would have a Hall and Oates quality. Pure magic.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That’s still pretty balls-deep negative.

Interesting.   I always thought a cold signal in the middle of the NP was a +PDO.    Obviously I have no clue how its calculated.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

 Except we are still in a very strong negative regime. 

Sure wish it would go positive... our warm seasons have been too cold and wet during this negative regime.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This would get me so excited in about 6 weeks. 

[Sonny Summers]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Sure wish it would go positive... our warm seasons have been too cold and wet during this negative regime.  

The 1980s had cooler summers, and those summers were right in the middle of the +PDO era.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Sonny Summers said:

The 1980s had cooler summers, and those summers were right in the middle of the +PDO era.

We had some pretty ridiculous heatwaves in the 80s. 

[Front Ranger]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

PDO is a mystery to me and its probably irrelevant in terms of looking forward... but it looks like the strongly negative PDO run is fading.   This almost looks like a +PDO signal to me.

 

Still more warmer than normal SSTAs in the north Pacific than cool, it's definitely still -PDO.

And that looks likely to strengthen over the next week or so. It will look more classic -PDO as the water along the west coast of North America cools rapidly.

[Snownerd3000]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting.   I always thought a cold signal in the middle of the NP was a +PDO.    Obviously I have no clue how its calculated.  

I found a good resource on how they calculate a few weeks back when PDO came up but didn't bookmark it.

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sure wish it would go positive... our warm seasons have been too cold and wet during this negative regime.  

Always been more of a correlation with the cold season.

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting.   I always thought a cold signal in the middle of the NP was a +PDO.    Obviously I have no clue how its calculated.  

It’s basically the inverse of the average anomaly in a box bordered by 30n/50n/150w/150e.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

The 1980s had cooler summers, and those summers were right in the middle of the +PDO era.

As a fan of warm (except for Nov-Jan) I was trained to cheer for Ninos and a +PDO.   But my world has been turned upside down recently.   We are in a multi-year Nina and a deeply negative PDO regime and our warm seasons have been record warm and dry.     Of course the answer is that in a warming climate all roads lead to warm.   But it takes some getting used to.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doesn't get much better than this. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Blessings for everyone. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

As a fan of warm (except for Nov-Jan) I was trained to cheer for Ninos and a +PDO.   But my world has been turned upside down recently.   We are in a multi-year Nina and a deeply negative PDO regime and our warm seasons have been record warm and dry.     Of course the answer is that in a warming climate all roads lead to warm.   But it takes some getting used to.    

Two of the wettest and coolest summers of the past 40 years, 1983 and 1993, were both strongly +PDO.

[The Cats Meow]

A few gust of wind around the neighborhood.  Got the gutters cleaned yesterday and put down a nice coat of Scotts fertilizer to help green up some of the spots that were hit hardest by the long stretch of summer.

Anyone else notice the price of fertilizer?  Yikes.  The bag I would normally get for $49.99 was about $80.

Bring on the rain and please dear lord baby jesus let hour 364 verify all winter long.

[Sonny Summers]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As a fan of warm (except for Nov-Jan) I was trained to cheer for Ninos and a +PDO.   But my world has been turned upside down recently.   We are in a multi-year Nina and a deeply negative PDO regime and our warm seasons have been record warm and dry.     Of course the answer is that in a warming climate all roads lead to warm.   But it takes some getting used to.    

True, it could just be the global warming signal overwhelming the climate system.

[Cloud]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting.   I always thought a cold signal in the middle of the NP was a +PDO.    Obviously I have no clue how its calculated.  

I find this to be a good resource and a quick read. There is an image on there from someone at the UW that helps differentiate the phases. Looks very negative when compare to your CDAS graph. 

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/data/el-nino-la-nina-watch-and-pdo/pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo/

[Sonny Summers]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had some pretty ridiculous heatwaves in the 80s. 

You always have heatwaves. Heat Waves are far worse now. We had a lot of cold summer months in the 1980s. July 1983 and July 1986 are both noteworthy examples. There are others, too.

[Sonny Summers]

It looks and feels much more like October outside today. I'm seeing quite a bit more color on the trees compared to a week ago at this time.

[Skagit Weather]

Looks like Mt. Baker Ski Area should have picked up about 3" by now. I really wish they had a webcam up there, but I'll have to satiate myself with cameras from further south.

[Sonny Summers]

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Two of the wettest and coolest summers of the past 40 years, 1983 and 1993, were both strongly +PDO.

It's hard to separate all the factors. The summer of 1993 was probably heavily affected by the Mt. Pinatubo eruption of 1991. The Earth was in the midst of a mini cooling episode at the time.

[BLI snowman]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Doesn't get much better than this. 

Would be super funny to see October go down in the books as a wet month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Would be super funny to see October go down in the books as a wet month.

1994 redux?!

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1994 redux?!

That's the one I was thinking of. Easy to forget that it only rained 0.40" or so in the first 24 days.

Bountiful cold NW flow followed in November!

[Sonny Summers]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

That's the one I was thinking of. Easy to forget that it only rained 0.40" or so in the first 24 days.

Bountiful cold NW flow followed in November!

It was a hot summer with warmth extending well into the fall. There are some similarities to this year.

[GHweatherChris]

You're all welcome!!

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That's the one I was thinking of. Easy to forget that it only rained 0.40" or so in the first 24 days.

Bountiful cold NW flow followed in November!

That month was about as good as it gets in November up here (1985 notwithstanding.). Warmest temp at Silver Falls in November 1994 was 52 on the 1st. Also recorded 2" of snow that day.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

rain here now and my shiity neighbors left their dog out in it and it's been barking for an hour straight

 

so it's definitely coming

I cannot stand dog owners that do not get after their dogs for barking never shutting them up. We have one a house over two big dogs and they let them bark for hours sometimes at night. Pisses me off.

00z ECMWF in 9 hours 52 minutes

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That month was about as good as it gets in November up here (1985 notwithstanding.). Warmest temp at Silver Falls in November 1994 was 52 on the 1st. Also recorded 2" of snow that day.

That front on Halloween ushering in that regime was intense. Total deluge all evening and turned into a massive snowstorm in the Cascades. 

[Gradient Keeper]

50 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

A few gust of wind around the neighborhood.  Got the gutters cleaned yesterday and put down a nice coat of Scotts fertilizer to help green up some of the spots that were hit hardest by the long stretch of summer.

Anyone else notice the price of fertilizer?  Yikes.  The bag I would normally get for $49.99 was about $80.

Bring on the rain and please dear lord baby jesus let hour 364 verify all winter long.

[The Cats Meow]

Crystal Mountain Resort base camp at 4400 feet is seeing some good snowfall.