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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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High of 50 yesterday at SEA just six days after they hit 88. Don’t see a 38 degree drop in highs in less than a week too often around here.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

High of 50 yesterday at SEA just six days after they hit 88. Don’t see a 38 degree drop in highs in less than a week too often around here.

Just like PDX’s record 24 hour temp drop in late June 2021, the impressiveness has way more to do with the extremely warm temps beforehand.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wouldn’t surprise me to see the early November ridging hinted at on some runs come to fruition. It’s pretty clear we aren’t going into a prolonged cold and troughy pattern as some were expecting. Definitely not like we did in April.

Better not to blow our cold now. Save it for December. We all know the lowlands are a one hit wonder. 

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Anyways, the next week (at least) looks incredibly nice. Consistently cool and wet. Breezy. Active. Pleasant.

Agreed. The change in weather is great. There was just a lot of hyperbole leading up to it, making it out to be an equally extreme answer to our months of heat and drought. In reality it’s basically a return to average conditions. Not to say I’m not enjoying it!

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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18 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wouldn’t surprise me to see the early November ridging hinted at on some runs come to fruition. It’s pretty clear we aren’t going into a prolonged cold and troughy pattern as some were expecting. Definitely not like we did in April.

How is it pretty clear? Science? I think it can go either way. Not clear at all. 

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5 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

This is sad. My maples are dropping green leaves 🍃 🍁 

😬

939555F0-9077-4D07-B859-03ECC6FF2E2C.jpeg

Probably how its going to go now... trees stayed mostly green because of warmth but at this point the low sun angle dictates a seasonal change regardless of the weather.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

How is it pretty clear? Science? I think it can go either way. Not clear at all. 

The models don’t show anything spectacularly cold or wet the next 10 days. By then we’ll be a couple weeks into our earth-shattering, Tonga infused pattern crash. Beyond that is anyone’s guess, but I’m just talking about the believable range.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Ehhh... You're downplaying this cool spell a bit. Running around -3 to -7 these last few days in the region. At a time of year when the only appreciably significant cold anomalies are maritime, that's a pretty good deal. And we'll be carrying those figures consistently for at least another week.

We’re definitely getting into the time of year when continental cold can enter the picture.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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12Z ECMWF would get most places to at or above normal rainfall for the month.    Quite the turnaround considering where we were at through the 20th with almost no rain.   

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-total_precip_inch-7390400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ehhh... You're downplaying this cool spell a bit. Running around -3 to -7 these last few days in the region. At a time of year when the only appreciably significant cold anomalies are maritime, that's a pretty good deal. And we'll be carrying those figures consistently for at least another week.

Yeah sure there will be some modestly below average days thrown in, really to be expected after four straight months of torching. But I wouldn’t call this the other shoe dropping. Maybe a ballerina slipper falling after months of our climo being beaten into submission by steel toed cleats.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

We’re definitely getting into the time of year when continental cold can enter the picture.

Yeah you're right, I forgot to consider ridging induced inversion patterns w/ cold pools and offshore flow; only really included direct continental CAA.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah sure there will be some modestly below average days thrown in, really to be expected after four straight months of torching. But I wouldn’t call this the other shoe dropping. Maybe a ballerina slipper falling after months of our climo being beaten into submission by steel toed cleats.

Oh, I would never claim that. Not even close to true. The 'other shoe dropping' would include some daily snow for just about everybody starting tomorrow, then continuing into early May. A high of 24F on Tuesday. Seven straight months of rain.

But 50/43 days are not 'normal' for this time of year, and probably never have been. It is decently cold, on a consistent basis. That is awesome! Recognizing this doesn't dismiss how atrocious the weather was in the months beforehand.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh, I would never claim that. Not even close to true. The 'other shoe dropping' would include some daily snow for just about everybody starting tomorrow, then continuing into early May. A high of 24F on Tuesday. Seven straight months of rain.

But 50/43 days are not 'normal' for this time of year, and probably never have been. It is decently cold, on a consistent basis. That is awesome! Recognizing this doesn't dismiss how atrocious the weather was in the months beforehand.

That seems like a fair assessment. Although we haven’t been that chilly down here. There was definitely a lot of hype about this being an “answer” to the predominant July-mid October pattern the last few weeks. That’s more what I’m responding to, not realistic takes such as this.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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All in all, when you look at temps October 21st-31st across the region, my guess is they’ll come in within a degree of average (possibly on the cool side of that range in some spots!) I guess we can check back in a week or so.

Edited by Cascadia_Wx
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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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48 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is how it's going to go down. Book it:

-First week of November, a large ridge blows up over the west coast, forcing our newly acquired storm track out to the east, and ushering in an inversion pattern for the lowlands. High latitude blocking associated with this ridge, in conjunction with a stout -NAO, drive cold air into Canada from Russia and the high Arctic, building a large pool over the north of the Continent. Maybe a big snap for the central/eastern part of the US.

-Second week, west coast ridge retrogrades, sending that cold air into the PNW and delivering the best cold snap during the first half of November since 1955. Highs around 30F. Big snows.

It's coming.

Lock it in.

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Located near Covington / Black Diamond, WA. Elevation ~550 ft.

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50 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is how it's going to go down. Book it:

-First week of November, a large ridge blows up over the west coast, forcing our newly acquired storm track out to the east, and ushering in an inversion pattern for the lowlands. High latitude blocking associated with this ridge, in conjunction with a stout -NAO, drive cold air into Canada from Russia and the high Arctic, building a large pool over the north of the Continent. Maybe a big snap for the central/eastern part of the US.

-Second week, west coast ridge retrogrades, sending that cold air into the PNW and delivering the best cold snap during the first half of November since 1955. Highs around 30F. Big snows.

It's coming.

I'll take everything you said except the inversion

**** them 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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22 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Still dumping here. Lost power this morning so took a walk around the neighborhood and have spent the rest of our time clearing this very heavy wet snow off the trees but it sure is beautiful!

About 14" on the ground now. Currently 30F.

Screen Shot 2022-10-23 at 3.31.38 PM.png

 

I want to be your neighbor. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is how it's going to go down. Book it:

-First week of November, a large ridge blows up over the west coast, forcing our newly acquired storm track out to the east, and ushering in an inversion pattern for the lowlands. High latitude blocking associated with this ridge, in conjunction with a stout -NAO, drive cold air into Canada from Russia and the high Arctic, building a large pool over the north of the Continent. Maybe a big snap for the central/eastern part of the US.

-Second week, west coast ridge retrogrades, sending that cold air into the PNW and delivering the best cold snap during the first half of November since 1955. Highs around 30F. Big snows.

It's coming.

I’m honestly feeling mid to late November this year for something noteworthy.  I think any ridging in early November remains kind of flat and to our west which allows a fairly seasonable pattern to take hold. Then things amplify and turn colder with a negative EPO and nice SE ridge.  Lock it in!

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