Jump to content
The Weather Forums

October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


Recommended Posts

18z GFS smashes 11/8's daily min/max by 10F, the current record holder being a high of 43F on 11/8/1973.

  • Excited 1
  • Shivering 4

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That would be something special if it happened considering how long the last few months have gone. Seems likely there will be some chilly weather coming up but if I had to guess it’ll probably be some days in the upper 30s low 40s at best…maybe some CZ/Foothill snows just based on climo. Would be cool if the 18z verified tho!

  • Like 1
  • Shivering 1

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The package is delivered on the 18z GFS.  Very cold!

  • Like 1
  • Shivering 8

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Even SEA will miss its warmest October on record by just a hair. Both of you guys routinely overstate the north south temp gradient in the region, just in inverse ways.

Just to get your goat on my part.  Seriously though using SEA for average min this month is very unrepresentative of what the mins have been up here on a broader scale.  If not for the lows being within reason this month would have shattered 2014s record.

  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty sure the 18z would be historic cold for so early.

  • Excited 1
  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The good news is all of the models show very cold air reaching southern BC.  The million dollar question is does it get over the border.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I'll wager a 82% chance it does not.

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 33 minutes

The problem with the GEFS at this range is that at the end of the day all the members are based on the GFS. So they will waffle around as much as the OP does this far out. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8 - GFS, GEFS. Not even close.

500h_anom.na.png

500h_anom-mean.na.png

The general pattern looks similar to me just a lot less amplified because it's an ensemble mean. It's definitely not as great as the operational, but not that bad in my opinion. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8 - GFS, GEFS. Not even close.

500h_anom.na.png

500h_anom-mean.na.png

That's actually quite good for an ensemble mean 8 days out. Pretty clear most members are in agreement with the operational.

  • Like 4
  • Shivering 1

Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Currently 54F and it's been cloudy all day. SUPER dark clouds towards the Cascade's.  No rain at all today though despite the weather forecast saying there was an 87% chance of rain here today...

 

 

darkhyyj.jpg

  • Like 4
  • Sad 1
  • Rain 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Legit... I am in that little circle with NO precipitation all day.  What gives?  Literally EVERYWHERE ELSE.  Lol! This is almost too funny.

 

everett_radarAnim-640x480.gif.cd9e8b69ba1c7a3b9374d13ba63666bb.gifK5-340mileAnim-640x480-1.gif.24c90191b736e6d6405f5a1c39662a35.gif

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-30 at 4.40.33 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-30 at 4.40.49 PM.png

everett_radarAnim-640x480.gif.cd9e8b69ba1c7a3b9374d13ba63666bb.gif

Don’t worry it’ll rain eventually…it was modeled that the Puget sound region would be shadowed to start out with this AR. 

  • Like 5

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Don’t worry it’ll rain eventually…it was modeled that the Puget sound region would be shadowed to start out with this AR. 

Hmmm I'm in the mood for donuts now.. 🍩🍩

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
 ❞

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Legit... I am in that little circle with NO precipitation all day.  What gives?  Literally EVERYWHERE ELSE.  Lol! This is almost too funny.

 

everett_radarAnim-640x480.gif.cd9e8b69ba1c7a3b9374d13ba63666bb.gifK5-340mileAnim-640x480-1.gif.24c90191b736e6d6405f5a1c39662a35.gif

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-30 at 4.40.33 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-30 at 4.40.49 PM.png

everett_radarAnim-640x480.gif.cd9e8b69ba1c7a3b9374d13ba63666bb.gif

Everett is often solidly in the rain shadow during AR events.    Its very common with SW flow.

  • Like 3

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Everett is often solidly in the rain shadow during AR events.    Its very common with SW flow.

If it were a snow storm there would be some people loosing it lol.

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • lol 1

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If it were a snow storm there would be some people loosing it lol.

I was there many times when I lived there, edge of Lake Stevens and Everett boundary line.  Post frontal though I was laughing and the others were crying.  Very often I got more snow in 6 hours than they got in 24.  It all evens out.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If it were a snow storm there would be some people loosing it lol.

Definitely not a snowstorm because I'm doing quite well today and that almost never happens when it snows. 1.27" so far on the day.

  • Excited 1
  • Rain 2

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: Tr (11/7: Tr, 11/29: Flakes, 11/30: Flakes, 12/1: Flakes, 12/2: Tr)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

The masses love those maps.  Helps them push certain agendas.

Yes it's absolutely concerning when the pro-sun lobby pushes such information using these maps. As a member of the pro-rain/snow coalition I do my best to fight the drought lovers.

  • Like 2
  • lol 3

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Let's see how this changes.  Kind of surprised by the results still. 

image.thumb.png.927dcfb8b170042640e32afffebd727e.png

The inch or so places had received by last Tuesday was not really enough to make up the deficit from an almost total lack of rain in September and October. With this atmospheric river most places should be closer to normal by this Tuesday, but I wouldn't be surprised if it takes a couple weeks for the drought monitor to catch up.

  • Like 3

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: Tr (11/7: Tr, 11/29: Flakes, 11/30: Flakes, 12/1: Flakes, 12/2: Tr)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

Legit... I am in that little circle with NO precipitation all day.  What gives?  Literally EVERYWHERE ELSE.  Lol! This is almost too funny.

 

everett_radarAnim-640x480.gif.cd9e8b69ba1c7a3b9374d13ba63666bb.gifK5-340mileAnim-640x480-1.gif.24c90191b736e6d6405f5a1c39662a35.gif

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-30 at 4.40.33 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-30 at 4.40.49 PM.png

everett_radarAnim-640x480.gif.cd9e8b69ba1c7a3b9374d13ba63666bb.gif

Meanwhile up to .73” here on the day, 3.97” for the month…Or I should say for the last 9 days. 

  • Like 1
  • Rain 2

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

The ground is still soaking up every drop of the 4” I have received over the last 9 days, my drainage ditches are still high and dry. 

  • Like 2
  • Rain 2

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

Legit... I am in that little circle with NO precipitation all day.  What gives?  Literally EVERYWHERE ELSE.  Lol! This is almost too funny.

 

everett_radarAnim-640x480.gif.cd9e8b69ba1c7a3b9374d13ba63666bb.gifK5-340mileAnim-640x480-1.gif.24c90191b736e6d6405f5a1c39662a35.gif

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-30 at 4.40.33 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-30 at 4.40.49 PM.png

everett_radarAnim-640x480.gif.cd9e8b69ba1c7a3b9374d13ba63666bb.gif

Primarily due to westerly unilateral flow thus enhancing orographic lift over the west slopes.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Been a while since I've been this shadow'd. Literally no measurable precip today, with a few sprinkles after around 2pm or so, not even enough to wet the ground. Thin clouds with sun occasionally peeking through; actually kind of a bright day today, a skiff of a breeze to boot.

If I were uninformed, I would have had no guess there was even a storm overhead today. The only inkling is a dark horizon on all directions.

  • Like 3

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The ground is still soaking up every drop of the 4” I have received over the last 9 days, my drainage ditches are still high and dry. 

Standing water in my back yard, it just can't handle this much water this fast.  Up to 1.2" for the day, 3.96" for the month.

I figured out while doing my deck that most of my back yard is clay hard pan, so not sure what I am going to do to fix my drainage issues. 

  • Rain 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Been a while since I've been this shadow'd. Literally no measurable precip today, with a few sprinkles after around 2pm or so, not even enough to wet the ground. Thin clouds with sun occasionally peeking through; actually kind of a bright day today, a skiff of a breeze to boot.

If I were uninformed, I would have had no guess there was even a storm overhead today. The only inkling is a dark horizon on all directions.

Bainbridge Island is typically Ground Zero of the donut hole that happens with progressive onshore flow from due west. When I lived there, I got expert at recognizing the pattern, and would cheerfully plan outdoor activities on days modeled to be total washouts for most areas. Sometimes the donut hole would be quite small (small enough that it would be raining in Seattle or Kingston), and you could see areas of rain falling all around the horizon.

  • Like 2
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Kayla unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...