October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hopefully the gfs is rushing things a bit.  Pretty early for most of the lowlands to score.  Wouldn’t want to waste the best 500mb pattern of the winter on November 8th

It’s fine. It’s all well to my south. Let them get their bragging rights for their slushy November snow. I will take some squeaky-cold January powder over that any day!

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s fine. It’s all well to my south. Let them get their bragging rights for their slushy November snow. I will take some squeaky-cold January powder over that any day!

Winter’s gonna be front loaded.  We might have had our January fun over the past few years. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

The first of many….. I hope 

[Kayla]

24 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hopefully the gfs is rushing things a bit.  Pretty early for most of the lowlands to score.  Wouldn’t want to waste the best 500mb pattern of the winter on November 8th

I dunno. Beggars can't be choosers and 1955 begs to differ.

[High Desert Mat?]

28 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Feeling better after that GFS run that we're nowhere close to returning to a ridgy pattern over the west.

But Jesse said!!!

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is a fun solution...

That L will pass right over my house. At that exact moment it's due west of my location.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I dunno. Beggars can't be choosers and 1955 begs to differ.

1955 was great. Though still a little later.  I try not to hang my hopes on a once in a century type of event when it comes to arctic air, for obvious reasons.  #midtolatenovember. 

[Meatyorologist]

Let nature do its thing. I hope it gets cold snowy, don't care when. Patterns that appear now can and will reappear again later. We'll be okay.

[The Blob]

I'm down for snow on the 8th, it could cancel work for the week. 

[jakerepp]

59 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

 

Perfect! I'm supposed to be loading the moving truck the next day.

[jakerepp]

4 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Perfect! I'm supposed to be loading the moving truck the next day.

Oh on that note, here's my house

 

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Perfect! I'm supposed to be loading the moving truck the next day.

Hopefully it has snow tires.  

[jakerepp]

We have until end of November on our lease but I said we should pack up second week since the mountains won't be too bad yet. Oops.

[Sonny Summers]

20 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Perfect! I'm supposed to be loading the moving truck the next day.

My dad moved from the Spokane area over to Lake Stevens back in November 2010. At one point he got stuck on a side street and had to shovel out. It happens. Spokane was saying goodbye.

[Omegaraptor]

26 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Let nature do its thing. I hope it gets cold snowy, don't care when. Patterns that appear now can and will reappear again later. We'll be okay.

We can still get stuck in the icebox for extended periods of time. Dec-Jan 2016-17, Feb-Mar 2019, etc. If we can do that we can repeat an Arctic outbreak no problem.

[Sonny Summers]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

We can still get stuck in the icebox for extended periods of time. Dec-Jan 2016-17, Feb-Mar 2019, etc. If we can do that we can repeat an Arctic outbreak no problem.

We just need strong blocking. If we have that, we just need it in the correct location.

[Deweydog]

WET TARMAC!

[Sonny Summers]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

They should rename it “Freezes.”

Or Freezer Burns

[High Desert Mat?]

2 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

Or Freezer Burns

Crotch burns?

[Cold Snap]

Good morning from inside the convergence zone! Currently 48 with light rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only 0.05" so far today at SLE. Up to 0.30" on the month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

November is dead to me. Maybe this year will redeem it, but I am not counting on it. 

 

[Jbolin]

41 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Oh on that note, here's my house

 

Rustic, yet open with really good airflow.

I like it

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, JBolin said:

Rustic, yet open with really good airflow.

I like it

I was going to say it looks a tad on the unfinished side to be moving into it already.

[Sonny Summers]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

November is dead to me. Maybe this year will redeem it, but I am not counting on it. 

 

I feel good about November. It's performed well over the years. I'm waiting for January to quit wearing Huggies. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Things are back where they should be. No more Rex Blocks.

Savor the wetness and gloom.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Sonny Summers said:

I feel good about November. It's performed well over the years. I'm waiting for January to quit wearing Huggies. 

November does tend to have more of a N/S gradient. I have definitely noticed that over the years. If you look November 2006, 2010, 2017 even, it was much better Seattle and points north. Cold upper level airmasses seem to have a much easier time penetrating further south once we get into February/March. They are mainly more maritime though so it usually doesn't work out great for folks below 1000', but up here those are often our snowiest months. 

[Sonny Summers]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

November does tend to have more of a N/S gradient. I have definitely noticed that over the years. If you look November 2006, 2010, 2017 even, it was much better Seattle and points north. Cold upper level airmasses seem to have a much easier time penetrating further south once we get into February/March. They are mainly more maritime though so it usually doesn't work out great for folks below 1000', but up here those are often our snowiest months. 

2011-12 is a good example of that. You did really well during that winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Absolutely LUV the end of the EURO. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Sonny Summers said:

2011-12 is a good example of that. You did really well during that winter. 

It was. We had a huge February and March. We also actually did have a decent snow event November 18-19th. Have not had more than an inch or two in any given November since then. In fact have not had more than a dusting of snow in November since 2015. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The EURO is going in a nice direction at the end too. 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

November does tend to have more of a N/S gradient. I have definitely noticed that over the years. If you look November 2006, 2010, 2017 even, it was much better Seattle and points north. Cold upper level airmasses seem to have a much easier time penetrating further south once we get into February/March. They are mainly more maritime though so it usually doesn't work out great for folks below 1000', but up here those are often our snowiest months. 

It reflects in the climate averages. In northern CA the wettest month is usually January, in southern CA it's February. Meanwhile October is often a full blown summer month down there. March 2021 was dry / NW'ly dominated and had a few continental cold shots (lots of hail that month). Think it was snowing below 2000' in central CA with one of those airmasses (Sonora was getting snow IIRC).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

It reflects in the climate averages. In northern CA the wettest month is usually January, in southern CA it's February. Meanwhile October is often a full blown summer month down there. March 2021 was dry / NW'ly dominated and had a few continental cold shots (lots of hail that month). Think it was snowing below 2000' in central CA with one of those airmasses (Sonora was getting snow IIRC).

Yeah it is interesting how the rainy season kind of migrates south. Our peak is a few weeks later than say, Tim in North Bend. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well, when I run the precip probability graphs for Silver Falls and Snoqualmie Falls, they are very similar. Both peak in late November. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's interesting the probability of rain on any given day during the rainy season is about 10% higher at Snoqualmie Falls, but we average significantly MORE rain. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we get up to 44F on Nov 7 and then up to 52F on Nov 8 on the morning GFS.

Appears as tho we should remain at above average temps through that period too so hopefully that can flip to being some below normal readings on days past the forecast period.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well, when I run the precip probability graphs for Silver Falls and Snoqualmie Falls, they are very similar. Both peak in late November. 

Looking at lowlands:

Looks like PDX was a November peak in 1981-2010 averages but with the new 1991-20 averages December gets slightly more rain. EUG averages 5.98" November and 7.21" December. Roseburg 4.66" and 6.99". Seems like a clear December peak begins at around Highway 20.

Going farther south, RDD still has a slight December peak but January is very close. Chico has DJF about equal, and SAC has January slightly higher than Dec and Feb. So the January peak seems to begin somewhere in Northern CA around 39-40N latitude.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Looking at lowlands:

Looks like PDX was a November peak in 1981-2010 averages but with the new 1991-20 averages December gets slightly more rain. EUG averages 5.98" November and 7.21" December. Roseburg 4.66" and 6.99". Seems like a clear December peak begins at around Highway 20.

Going farther south, RDD still has a slight December peak but January is very close. Chico has DJF about equal, and SAC has January slightly higher than Dec and Feb. So the January peak seems to begin somewhere in Northern CA around 39-40N latitude.

[Skagit Weather]

If the Euro verified verbatim it would put me close to my record wettest October. Record is 5.95" from 2014 (I had forgotten how wet 2016 was in Seattle with over 10" of rain, but I was in the rain shadow for much of that month and only ended up with 5.54").

Currently I have 0.82" in the bucket for the month and the Euro shows about another 5" by the end of the October. Of course I don't expect it to happen (another 2-3" is probably more likely), but still pretty astounding considering 2/3rds of the way through the month my rain total was 0.00".

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still at a whopping 0.62" here since mid June.

Yesterday's -1F daily avg departure broke our streak of 36 straight days above normal.