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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


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26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seriously. The GFS has a track record of grossly underestimating the ability of the Rockies, Coast Mountains, and Cascades to get in the way of cold air from the interior. A period of below-normal temperatures with lowland snow chances is looking increasingly likely, but I feel very safe saying it will not be as dramatically cold and snowy as some Goofus runs are claiming it will be.

Goofus was calling for surface temperatures in the -20’s Celsius in this area last January. -15’s were more like it. And in January 2020 it was calling for -15’s and we got -10’s. Seems reasonable to add about 5˚C to whatever the GFS says temperatures will be in an outflow event.

If this thing materializes, I will be pleased as punch with a trace to 4" of sloppy wet snow followed by a freeze into the mid-20’s F, because that is realistically about the best we can expect.

06z shows a completely reasonable temp of 3 degrees F (-16c) at Vancouver. And a 31/26 day in Portland.

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

06z shows a completely reasonable temp of 3 degrees F (-16c) at Vancouver.

Hopefully the GFS upgrade coming in a few weeks makes some big improvements in terms of surface conditions.     Its pretty comical how extreme it can be... in both directions.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Eugene finally sees some rain this run!

Really delighted to see the trendz turn wetter on all the models. I'm as excited by cold/snow eye candy as anyone, but down here, rain is still the main goal for now. If these model runs come anywhere close to verifying, I may even quit whining about the drought. Until the next dry spell, anyway.

 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z GFS looked a wee bit snowy for Western WA...

Edit: Just noticed the 00z GFS was also incredibly snowy. So I guess the ticket to a great November was just getting me out of the state. Hopefully the same will be said for January!

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-8578400.png

Cold too

 

sfct.us_nw.png

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14 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The good news is all of the models show very cold air reaching southern BC.  The million dollar question is does it get over the border.

We are getting into the holiday shopping season, so the border wait times can get pretty brutal.  Odds are the cold air will get stuck in that traffic and moderate while sitting in the queue. 

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2 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Really delighted to see the trendz turn wetter on all the models. I'm as excited by cold/snow eye candy as anyone, but down here, rain is still the main goal for now. If these model runs come anywhere close to verifying, I may even quit whining about the drought. Until the next dry spell, anyway.

Cold weather is usually dry weather. Plus, there is often a pronounced N-S temperature gradient.

Put those two together and what may happen is a southward deflection in the storm track that results in Eugene getting drenched and us getting a freeze and some lowland snow.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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The truth is, the pattern depicted on the GFS is tenuous. That's a large lobe of air being forced south. Nine times out of ten, the block isn't sufficient and cold air stops at the border. January 2020 is a good example.

This will be great for getting rain along the west coast though. And snow in the mountains too.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Interior BC has an incredible early November cold snap coming though. Lows well below zero, some highs in that vicinity too.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The truth is, the pattern depicted on the GFS is tenuous. That's a large lobe of air being forced south. Nine times out of ten, the block isn't sufficient and cold air stops at the border. January 2020 is a good example.

This will be great for getting rain along the west coast though. And snow in the mountains too.

January 2020? Sounds great to me!

IMG_4937.thumb.jpg.9733f1207796165c1875d58d0aa1d9a6.jpg

IMG_4928.thumb.jpg.e0878df20222628ab6bbc7ffeb2e7fe9.jpg

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: Tr (11/7: Tr, 11/29: Flakes, 11/30: Flakes, 12/1: Flakes, 12/2: Tr)

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11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The truth is, the pattern depicted on the GFS is tenuous. That's a large lobe of air being forced south. Nine times out of ten, the block isn't sufficient and cold air stops at the border. January 2020 is a good example.

This will be great for getting rain along the west coast though. And snow in the mountains too.

Yeah it also looks like the Euro isn't as good. Though the Euro does show more chances for arctic air to make it south after the first wave which is nice. Either way it's fun to model ride!

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I ended up with 1.79" of rain yesterday, good for my 6th wettest day in my records (since 2010). With another 0.28" so far today I'm up to 4.17" on the month now.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: Tr (11/7: Tr, 11/29: Flakes, 11/30: Flakes, 12/1: Flakes, 12/2: Tr)

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  • Longtimer
12 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

January 2020? Sounds great to me!

IMG_4937.thumb.jpg.9733f1207796165c1875d58d0aa1d9a6.jpg

IMG_4928.thumb.jpg.e0878df20222628ab6bbc7ffeb2e7fe9.jpg

Me too! 

D2DD3BF6-AC8D-429C-B50B-054349D17249.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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59 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Had a lovely trip to MT/WY. Ended up doing Yellowstone and the Tetons instead of Glacier. Stayed in Bozeman for a night and got to see some piles of Kayla's urban snow! Lotta snow still above 7000'. made the hiking tough but definitely got me in the mood for winter. Nice to see the models coming around almost on queue.

 

 

PXL_20221028_215109666.PORTRAIT.jpg

PXL_20221028_201735779.PORTRAIT.jpg

PXL_20221030_002542673.MP.jpg

PXL_20221029_235043948.MP.jpg

PXL_20221029_223847177.PORTRAIT.jpg

Great to hear that you had a good trip and awesome pictures! Surprisingly we still have snow on the ground from the storm on the 23rd.

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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8 hours ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I'd rather have Thanksgiving snow than Veterans' Day snow. 

Holiday snow preference: 

1. Christmas (Eve or Day)

2. New Year's (Eve or Day)

3. Boxing Day

4. President's Day

5. MLK Day

6. Valentine's Day

7. Thanksgiving (actual day or weekend)

8. Lunar New Year

9. St. Patrick's Day

10. April Fools' Day

Honorable Mentions:

Veterans' Day, Fat Tuesday, Easter, and Halloween

 

Did I miss any? Did not pick Hannukah because it is 8 days so not sure which day to pick.

1. Birthday snow (January 24th)

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6 hours ago, JSnowlin said:

Mmmhhhmmmm, yea, and the Giants were supposed to beat the Seahawks yesterday too.

I think you mean the "Mariners" if you watched that game.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 2 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1 inch: Nov 1

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: .20 on 12/4/22

Days with any snow: 11/1/22, 11/28/22, 12/01/22 (trace), 12/02/22 (Trace)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

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  • Longtimer
21 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Great to hear that you had a good trip and awesome pictures! Surprisingly we still have snow on the ground from the storm on the 23rd.

Yeah, was still a fair amount in the shade in town. And as soon as you got down into the Gallatins, still 8"+ at river level.

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  • Longtimer

We had no rain over the weekend. Started raining lightly around 8a.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, was still a fair amount in the shade in town. And as soon as you got down into the Gallatins, still 8"+ at river level.

Did you take 191 down to West? Such a beautiful drive, one of my favorites.

Also just saw that they re-opened the Gardiner entrance which considering what it looked like in June is just incredible.

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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  • Longtimer
7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Did you take 191 down to West? Such a beautiful drive, one of my favorites.

Also just saw that they re-opened the Gardiner entrance which considering what it looked like in June is just incredible.

I did. Definitely a nice drive and of course got to see a herd of bighorn sheep right along the road.

And wow, yeah I just saw that. Literally the day after I left 😆 The interior roads in Yellowstone close for the winter today though, so I'm glad I was able to get in when I did since it made cutting through the park over to the canyon and over to Lamar Valley possible for me.

 

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  • Longtimer

ENSO 3.4 region down to -1.0C.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Friday looks wett.

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Gonna be an active November. Beyond that who knows. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

This morning’s stats: 0.18" for the day, 7.04" for the month.

I was in Kamloops on the weekend. It was pouring most of the way on the drive up Thursday and the drive home yesterday.  It was dry in Kamloops as it normally is but the wind was ripping the whole the time. 

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  • Longtimer

Hmmmm. Looks legit... GFS actually shows temps in W. Washington falling throughout the day. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_30.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Oh geezzz here it comes...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_32.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm. Looks legit... GFS actually shows temps in W. Washington falling throughout the day. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_30.png

It looks more similar to the Euro in the tilt of the AK block but is still a very good run

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6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I was in Kamloops on the weekend. It was pouring most of the way on the drive up Thursday and the drive home yesterday.  It was dry in Kamloops as it normally is but the wind was ripping the whole the time. 

What’s freaky is how I went from zilch to over 7" all in the last 10 days of the month (and mostly in the last week). Despite how wet it’s been, there has been no flooding. It’s just been sinking in.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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  • Longtimer

OMG it s BOMBING

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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