October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Front Ranger]

Do not trust the demonic Goofus. Place your faith in the Euro, from which blessings flow.

- Andrew

[Kayla]

3 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

God I hope not. Those 3 Dec's combined were like 10% of normal precip for us which would be a disaster. Dec 1989 was the only Dec shutout recorded here. 

It's interesting (or maybe not that surprising!) that all three of those years were really good December's here. December 2017 was actually the snowiest month on record here with 6ft of snow. But we thrive with N/NW flow which would mean a ridge parked right over you...

 

 

[Omegaraptor]

Raining in Corvallis. Check the NWS radar and it's completely empty for here.

Would it kill NWS to put another radar in Eugene or Florence?

[ShawniganLake]

30 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Can't tell if sarcasm, but the 46 days gets us to only December 9th. How much snow do the lowlands usually get by the beginning of the second week of December?

The euro has a lot of ensemble members. Some of them are almost certainly going to show some snow between November and March. And this obviously gets blended into the mean maps posted.  You could have 45 members showing nothing but a couple of snowy outlier ensemble members 7 weeks in the future could make for a snowy looking ensemble map. 
 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Raining in Corvallis. Check the NWS radar and it's completely empty for here.

Would it kill NWS to put another radar in Eugene or Florence?

Even at my location we get a lot of fall rains that originate in clouds below the radar beam. 

[Kolk1604]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Euro and GEM seem a lot wetter than the GFS right now. 

That's like GFS level... but from the King! 

[Snownerd3000]

3 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

That warm patch off the west cost and in the GoA they are basing their influence of a +PNA is being eaten away.  My guess is we do see a flip to +PNA at some point during Nov-Dec for a period but we see flip -PNA again for a stretch. Could  be wrong but just my thoughts.  Core of the cold according to the CPC's Seasonal really seems to be the core of winter with a neutral signal for NDJ but colder than normal shown for the remainder of the winter.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

That warm patch off the west cost and in the GoA they are basing their influence of a +PNA is being eaten away.  My guess is we do see a flip to +PNA at some point during Nov-Dec for a period but we see flip -PNA again for a stretch. Could  be wrong but just my thoughts.  Core of the cold according to the CPC's Seasonal really seems to be the core of winter with a neutral signal for NDJ but colder than normal shown for the remainder of the winter.

Why is it so different?

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

Why is it so different?

This is the 7 day change vs the observed anomaly.  Basically, the trend is showing a cooling of these waters.  This isn't the only 7 day map showing a reduction.  You can check this out here, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can't wait for this +PNA

[MossMan]

Speaking of missing people…I haven’t seen any Phil posts lately…Unless I just missed them. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Speaking of missing people…I haven’t seen any Phil posts lately…Unless I just missed them. 

Pretty sure he's dealing with family stuff.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we got down to 42F. About 2F warmer than the airport so we were right at average here in town rather than the misleading -1F at the airport, which does not represent Springfield's temperatures and conditions.

[Kolk1604]

I know Jim has been talking about this. Here's that -EPO and -PNA for the early part of November. Anyone got money on the control?  

Looking at the extended, the control does have pretty cold temps if this verifies. Not much snow, though 

 

[TT-SEA]

Currently 52 and partly sunny... and it doesn't feel cold.  In fact it seems rather pleasant.   Adjustment from summer temps didn't take me too long.  

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Can't tell if sarcasm, but the 46 days gets us to only December 9th. How much snow do the lowlands usually get by the beginning of the second week of December?

Lots, in ensemble land!

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Euro and GEM seem a lot wetter than the GFS right now. 

GFS will likely be closer to reality.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

GFS will likely be closer to reality.

Most likely. I find the EURO overstates precip, especially in the lowlands. It's usually fairly accurate for up here. 

On the plus side the GFS is still pretty chilly. Maybe the first part of November actually ends up a little below average for temps? Hey, a gurl can dream.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

GFS will likely be closer to reality.

GFS certainly hasn’t been closer to reality in recent weeks.

[HuskyMaestro]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Euro and GEM seem a lot wetter than the GFS right now. 

The Euro's really going for that WAP...

Wet A** Precipitation 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z CFS was actually pretty decent. FWIW.

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

The Euro's really going for that WAP...

Wet A** Precipitation 

RIP

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

GFS certainly hasn’t been closer to reality in recent weeks.

For precip it's been doing okay lately with the past few systems. It doesn't tend to overstate things as much as the other models, at least inside of a week.

[ShawniganLake]

certainly looks cool and active on the ensembles thru Nov 10th or so.  Wet in the lowlands and building some mountain snowpack 

[Cloud]

16 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

certainly looks cool and active on the ensembles thru Nov 10th or so.  Wet in the lowlands and building some mountain snowpack 

This looks like a setup for some decent mountain snow. Quite active as you said. 

[NWbyNW]

Rain at lower elevations, but there is some snow coming down at Snoqualmie Pass!

Roads are still just wet water. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really all we can ask for IMO out of November is to build some snow pack and get some rain. Other than a once in a decade or two type of scenario like 1985, 1993, 2010, 1955, etc... 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

For precip it's been doing okay lately with the past few systems. It doesn't tend to overstate things as much as the other models, at least inside of a week.

It took the GFS some time to come on board with the Euro for the recent pattern change. If the GFS was all that great, we’d still be in a dry pattern.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It took the GFS some time to come on board with the Euro for the recent pattern change. If the GFS was all that great, we’d still be in a dry pattern.

GFS probably has a lot more frosty nights for us. FWIW. 

[Meatyorologist]

44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z CFS was actually pretty decent. FWIW.

It's over.

[Meatyorologist]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really all we can ask for IMO out of November is to build some snow pack and get some rain. Other than a once in a decade or two type of scenario like 1985, 1993, 2010, 1955, etc... 

Yeah I agree with this. Don't get me wrong, I really do like November cold, but it's more of a novelty except on rare occasions. If we leave November with the resorts open that's a significant W.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z CFS was actually pretty decent. FWIW.

lol let me go take a gander at that hunk of shiit

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol let me go take a gander and that hunk of shiit

[Phishy Wx]

[Phishy Wx]

probably have a decent shot at first snow of the season in these parts early next week.  we'll see

[Phishy Wx]

Druncle bringing the goods to E WA

 

 

 

[Sonny Summers]

30 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol let me go take a gander at that hunk of shiit

Flip a coin

[Sonny Summers]

25 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Where's Judah's weenie wagon?

[SnowWillarrive]

38 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

This needs to be tweeted to Judah as machine learning. 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z CFS was actually pretty decent. FWIW.

It's only decent if you look at the previous runs that show a consistent pattern!