October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[NWbyNW]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

 Requested by: 0 People.

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

 

Make that zero a one!!! I love model comparisons.  It's always a good source of a laugh!

[NWbyNW]

This radar of the precipitation the past few hours shows how crazy well the Olympic Mountains can sometimes protect the Hood Canal and Seattle from rain.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Cascadia_Wx]

 

[The Blob]

5 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Are there magnolia trees (and magnolia cones) in the PNW?

We do have Magnolias up here, and more varieties. The only thing is we don't get as many blooms as SoCal gets for their trees.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er ehhh

[Skagit Weather]

Euro definitely shows a big shift north with the Atmospheric River on Sunday/Monday putting it more in line with the GFS. It's also warmer meaning there's significantly less mountain snow.

[Skagit Weather]

36 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

This radar of the precipitation the past few hours shows how crazy well the Olympic Mountains can sometimes protect the Hood Canal and Seattle from rain.  

They do a good job, but it's also not raining particularly hard in most of the locations outside the direct rain shadow. I've been under radar returns for four hours and have only picked up 0.03".

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Long range AR very wet!

[Skagit Weather]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Long range AR very wet!

Yeah, I was going to say, despite my earlier comment, this run ends up even wetter than the previous run for most places. Drier in the short term is replaced by that AR at the end.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, I was going to say, despite my earlier comment, this run ends up even wetter than the previous run for most places. Drier in the short term is replaced by that AR at the end.

I think an AR looks very plausible.

6z GFS in 2 hours 31 minutes

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

Looks like it's going somewhere good in the end

[Gradient Keeper]

The pattern would support a bunch more rain after Day 10 too.

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 38 minutes

[snow_wizard]

That is a tremendously interesting pattern the ECMWF is showing late in the run.  Classic AR and a classic precursor to major cold.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Looks like it's going somewhere good in the end

This is the setup where an AR can go to snow on the north side of the zone if it sustains long enough.  Saw some stuff like this in 1990.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is a tremendously interesting pattern the ECMWF is showing late in the run.  Classic AR and a classic precursor to major cold.

Agreed, and we could see that progression too. Here we go!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

I am somewhat eager to see how the EPS looks Day 7+

[Kolk1604]

27 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I am somewhat eager to see how the EPS looks Day 7+

Day 8 

 

[Kolk1604]

Day 9 

 

[Kolk1604]

Day 10 

[Kolk1604]

Day 11 

[Kolk1604]

Day 12 

[Kolk1604]

Day 13 

[Gradient Keeper]

Diggggggggggggg! Digggggggggg! Well that's not bad. Slide the block a bit more ---->

00z ECMWF in 22 hours 3 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Damn that is close.

[snow_wizard]

Run to run change is very good on this EPS run.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

D**n that is close.

The Control is Sexy 

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF still shows we could have a cold night or two the middle of next week too.  I'm dying for the first frost.

[Gradient Keeper]

Judah won't like this!

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

The Control is Sexy 

 

It certainly is.

[Gradient Keeper]

We could see some downright frightful and ghoulishly cold model runs on Halloween!

[Kolk1604]

I wonder what the weeklies will show later today 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Control run is pretty boring TBH. We barely even get below 40F at any point. 850s barely get down to -2F or so for like 1 frame.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Control run is pretty boring TBH. We barely even get below 40F at any point. 850s barely get down to -2F or so for like 1 frame.

I think the biggest takeway is that colder air starts moving down through BC. 

 

[Jbolin]

10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I wonder what the weeklies will show later today 

Man, that is lobe-a-licious.