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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hard to complain about this. 

7ED57104-2DBE-48DF-88D7-BA5C35C7ACFA.jpeg

Yeah...A pattern that would bring uncomfortable heat in the summer is now quite enjoyable.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The 18z GFS shows another Thursday type system moving through early in week two instead of a big pattern change.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS shows another Thursday type system moving through early in week two instead of a big pattern change.

Just unbelievable how bad it’s getting. I think it’s time for some good ol’ rain dancing and repenting. The webs in my feet are about gone now and that’s saying a lot considering I live in the desert anyways. 
 

Maybe I should get in on those conference calls up at Stampede Pass to find out the scoop behind all this. 

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74/50 today. Despite the smoke in the air it’s a beautiful day out there. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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18 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Ash falling in carnation. Cool

Fires in the north cascades and cedar creek looked like they picked up intensity today. Continued offshore flow in the coming days won’t help. 

G17_sector_pnw_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20221001-2027.gif

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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The smoke here is worse than it looks on the satellite imagery. This year might’ve not had the major thick nasty smoke 2020 did…but this has been an on and off issue for over a month now. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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Too smoky and warm for me today. At this point the only '70's or '80's I want to see in the weather forecast is snowfall accumulations.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Pretty evening light. Feeling a bit of a chill but still comfortable. Saving the game talk for Tacoma in the banter thread for obvious reasons. But the bright side of a warmer fall is you can enjoy the activities of the season.

IMG_20221001_174553669.jpg

IMG_20221001_174552349.jpg

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2022-2023 snowfall totals: 1.75 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1 inch: Nov 1-2

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

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33 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Pretty evening light. Feeling a bit of a chill but still comfortable. Saving the game talk for Tacoma in the banter thread for obvious reasons. But the bright side of a warmer fall is you can enjoy the activities of the season.

IMG_20221001_174553669.jpg

IMG_20221001_174552349.jpg

Technically I am in that pic!   We moved down to student section.   Here was our view in 4th quarter.  You are also in my pic.  😀

20221001_174332.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some incredibly interesting stuff happened in the late 1920s through early 1940s that offers a lot of hope going forward.  1929 and 1936 both featured a ridiculously dry October / November with 1929 reaching 80 in Landsburg on October 23.  Both years featured abnormally cold mins in November followed by a very wet December and then epic cold Januarys.  1942 featured a very dry September / October (up until Oct 29th). Followed by very wet weather from the very end of Oct through November, a typical December, and then extreme blocking and deep cold in January.  We'll see if this year takes a similar path.  The theme of these kinds of seasons seems to be cold holding off until the heart of the winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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74/50 today was the warmest October day since 10/6/14 when we pulled off a 75/53. That’s also the warmest day I’ve recorded 2005 to present. Pretty good chance we break that record coming up. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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F453C240-E201-4D96-BF4B-33E4A8367B0D.thumb.jpeg.4dd424e7e1dafa581368671dead38509.jpeg

Gorge tents are setup and pregame has been going for a while now. Concert should be starting (fairly) soon, here’s the sunset going on over Ryegrass Summit. Have a great night TWF!

Also it’s 73 here and dropping fast!

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16 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Feels like June out there 

Besides that it’s almost totally dark by 7:45 yeah it’s pretty warm out. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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E3599181-3DFD-440C-A5B5-37974AB0AECF.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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image.png

hahahaha!!!

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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4 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Fires in the north cascades and cedar creek looked like they picked up intensity today. Continued offshore flow in the coming days won’t help. 

G17_sector_pnw_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20221001-2027.gif

Wonder when the last fire season in the PNW extended into October. Definitely been awhile.

A forum for the end of the world.

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wonder when the last fire season in the PNW extended into October. Definitely been awhile.

IIRC there was some wildfire smoke around in October 2017…but I can’t remember if it was from California or not. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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Still no sign of any meaningful rainfall the next 10 days on the gfs or cmc. In the fall of 2012 the faucet turned on October 12th. I think sometime mid month the pattern will finally shift and we will get our first real storms. Could really use a pattern like we had during the 2nd half of that month. Picked up 7.57” of rain from 10/12-10/31 that year. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

74/50 today was the warmest October day since 10/6/14 when we pulled off a 75/53. That’s also the warmest day I’ve recorded 2005 to present. Pretty good chance we break that record coming up. 

79/47 here.  Amazing how much higher spread I end up with here.  It's so incredibly dry here it's able to plunge at night very easily.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Geeze.  Out of the last 3 Octobers I've only had three 70+ days here.  All in 2020 and all low 70s.  These next few days are going to be at just plain freaky levels.  Something big is going to happen when we come out of this.  Just don't know what exactly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

79/47 here.  Amazing how much higher spread I end up with here.  It's so incredibly dry here it's able to plunge at night very easily.

Longer nights definitely help out despite the warm airmass. Down to 11 hours and 40 minutes of daylight as of today. Overnight lows still haven’t been very impressive here for late September/early October. DPs are in the mid 50s across the area right too. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Still no sign of any meaningful rainfall the next 10 days on the gfs or cmc. In the fall of 2012 the faucet turned on October 12th. I think sometime mid month the pattern will finally shift and we will get our first real storms. Could really use a pattern like we had during the 2nd half of that month. Picked up 7.57” of rain from 10/12-10/31 that year. 

Yeah....This GFS run was terrible.  Just as far from anything at the end of the run as we are now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Longer nights definitely help out despite the warm airmass. Down to 11 hours and 40 minutes of daylight as of today. Overnight lows still haven’t been very impressive here for late September/early October. DPs are in the mid 50s across the area right too. 

I sure wish the dps were lower.  As it is the nights are long enough and ground dry enough that the dp gets chased down through the night here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  Out of the last 3 Octobers I've only had three 70+ days here.  All in 2020 and all low 70s.  These next few days are going to be at just plain freaky levels.  Something big is going to happen when we come out of this.  Just don't know what exactly.

 

E976A117-BBB0-4975-ABDD-A315E938DD4C.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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If this MJO wave keeps going the pattern will have to change when the wave gets to a favorable position for us.  If the wave dies this could go on for a long time.  There are years in the past that went dry through most of November.  None of those years had the insane dryness going into autumn that we had this year though.  If November is dry it should be cold if past history has anything to say about it.

No matter how you slice it this is getting weird though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That's probably a good sign.

I dunno.  This pattern is about as stable as it gets.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I dunno.  This pattern is about as stable as it gets.

Maybe the effects from Tonga have altered the normal patterns?   No way to know for sure, but we do know there is an unprecedented situation in the stratosphere right now in terms of water vapor.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF looks similar to its 12Z run for early next week.   A little farther east with the troughing to the north but the overall evolution is about the same.   That probably means it's going to happen.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Meatyorologist changed the title to October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza
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