October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS shows another Thursday type system moving through early in week two instead of a big pattern change.

[High Desert Mat?]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS shows another Thursday type system moving through early in week two instead of a big pattern change.

Just unbelievable how bad it’s getting. I think it’s time for some good ol’ rain dancing and repenting. The webs in my feet are about gone now and that’s saying a lot considering I live in the desert anyways. 
 

Maybe I should get in on those conference calls up at Stampede Pass to find out the scoop behind all this. 

[TacomaWx]

74/50 today. Despite the smoke in the air it’s a beautiful day out there. 

[NWbyNW]

Topped out at 65.8F today.  Smoke is quite thick.  It has a wispy quality to it today and occasionally you can smell it. 

 

 

[RentonHill]

Ash falling in carnation. Cool

[TacomaWx]

18 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Ash falling in carnation. Cool

Fires in the north cascades and cedar creek looked like they picked up intensity today. Continued offshore flow in the coming days won’t help. 

[TacomaWx]

The smoke here is worse than it looks on the satellite imagery. This year might’ve not had the major thick nasty smoke 2020 did…but this has been an on and off issue for over a month now. 

[Jbolin]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Brian O'Keefe just hit his first base hit! But before you celebrate...

Screw 'dis guuuuy

[Doinko]

Wow Tillamook and Florence hit 86 today!

[Meatyorologist]

Too smoky and warm for me today. At this point the only '70's or '80's I want to see in the weather forecast is snowfall accumulations.

[LowerGarfield]

Pretty evening light. Feeling a bit of a chill but still comfortable. Saving the game talk for Tacoma in the banter thread for obvious reasons. But the bright side of a warmer fall is you can enjoy the activities of the season.

[TT-SEA]

33 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Pretty evening light. Feeling a bit of a chill but still comfortable. Saving the game talk for Tacoma in the banter thread for obvious reasons. But the bright side of a warmer fall is you can enjoy the activities of the season.

Technically I am in that pic!   We moved down to student section.   Here was our view in 4th quarter.  You are also in my pic. 

[snow_wizard]

Some incredibly interesting stuff happened in the late 1920s through early 1940s that offers a lot of hope going forward.  1929 and 1936 both featured a ridiculously dry October / November with 1929 reaching 80 in Landsburg on October 23.  Both years featured abnormally cold mins in November followed by a very wet December and then epic cold Januarys.  1942 featured a very dry September / October (up until Oct 29th). Followed by very wet weather from the very end of Oct through November, a typical December, and then extreme blocking and deep cold in January.  We'll see if this year takes a similar path.  The theme of these kinds of seasons seems to be cold holding off until the heart of the winter.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A little bit of haze this evening but not terrible by any means. Most of the smoke seems to be staying to the south or east.

[TacomaWx]

74/50 today was the warmest October day since 10/6/14 when we pulled off a 75/53. That’s also the warmest day I’ve recorded 2005 to present. Pretty good chance we break that record coming up. 

[Omegaraptor]

Gorge tents are setup and pregame has been going for a while now. Concert should be starting (fairly) soon, here’s the sunset going on over Ryegrass Summit. Have a great night TWF!

Also it’s 73 here and dropping fast!

[RentonHill]

Feels like June out there 

[TacomaWx]

16 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Feels like June out there 

Besides that it’s almost totally dark by 7:45 yeah it’s pretty warm out. 

[kokaneekidz]

2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Wow Tillamook and Florence hit 86 today!

What did they break the record by? +10 or more!?

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

What did they break the record by? +10 or more!?

I'm not sure where to find their records but I see Astoria broke the previous record of 78 with 82 today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[rsktkr]

Very early signs of a MASSIVE pattern shift to show up in the models starting in the next 48 hours or so.

[MossMan]

74/50 on the day.

Currently 57. Degrees 

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just 5 stations, bro. 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Just 5 stations, bro. 

If Olympia didn’t make the cut than it doesn’t count. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

If Olympia didn’t make the cut than it doesn’t count. 

It did, 65.4 avg beating out 65.0 from 1967

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

It did, 65.4 avg beating out 65.0 from 1967

my man

[High Desert Mat?]

00z looks similar so far. Need things to improve. The ferns over there are paying a steep price. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

00z = buzkill

[Meatyorologist]

hahahaha!!!

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Fires in the north cascades and cedar creek looked like they picked up intensity today. Continued offshore flow in the coming days won’t help. 

Wonder when the last fire season in the PNW extended into October. Definitely been awhile.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

It did, 65.4 avg beating out 65.0 from 1967

Flat ranger will not be pleased. Station of the gods. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

If Olympia didn’t make the cut than it doesn’t count. 

You realize that it can also be very warm and UHI can still exacerbate records, right?

Not mutually exclusive.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Flat ranger will not be pleased. Station of the gods. 

Ninth warmest September on record for OLM. Pleasing compared to 3rd at SEA and 1st at PDX. 

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wonder when the last fire season in the PNW extended into October. Definitely been awhile.

IIRC there was some wildfire smoke around in October 2017…but I can’t remember if it was from California or not. 

[TacomaWx]

Still no sign of any meaningful rainfall the next 10 days on the gfs or cmc. In the fall of 2012 the faucet turned on October 12th. I think sometime mid month the pattern will finally shift and we will get our first real storms. Could really use a pattern like we had during the 2nd half of that month. Picked up 7.57” of rain from 10/12-10/31 that year. 

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

74/50 today was the warmest October day since 10/6/14 when we pulled off a 75/53. That’s also the warmest day I’ve recorded 2005 to present. Pretty good chance we break that record coming up. 

79/47 here.  Amazing how much higher spread I end up with here.  It's so incredibly dry here it's able to plunge at night very easily.

[snow_wizard]

Geeze.  Out of the last 3 Octobers I've only had three 70+ days here.  All in 2020 and all low 70s.  These next few days are going to be at just plain freaky levels.  Something big is going to happen when we come out of this.  Just don't know what exactly.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

79/47 here.  Amazing how much higher spread I end up with here.  It's so incredibly dry here it's able to plunge at night very easily.

Longer nights definitely help out despite the warm airmass. Down to 11 hours and 40 minutes of daylight as of today. Overnight lows still haven’t been very impressive here for late September/early October. DPs are in the mid 50s across the area right too. 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Still no sign of any meaningful rainfall the next 10 days on the gfs or cmc. In the fall of 2012 the faucet turned on October 12th. I think sometime mid month the pattern will finally shift and we will get our first real storms. Could really use a pattern like we had during the 2nd half of that month. Picked up 7.57” of rain from 10/12-10/31 that year. 

Yeah....This GFS run was terrible.  Just as far from anything at the end of the run as we are now.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Longer nights definitely help out despite the warm airmass. Down to 11 hours and 40 minutes of daylight as of today. Overnight lows still haven’t been very impressive here for late September/early October. DPs are in the mid 50s across the area right too. 

I sure wish the dps were lower.  As it is the nights are long enough and ground dry enough that the dp gets chased down through the night here.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....This GFS run was terrible.  Just as far from anything at the end of the run as we are now.

80 degrees at PDX on October 17th. It’s so ridiculous that I believe it might verify. 

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  Out of the last 3 Octobers I've only had three 70+ days here.  All in 2020 and all low 70s.  These next few days are going to be at just plain freaky levels.  Something big is going to happen when we come out of this.  Just don't know what exactly.

 

[snow_wizard]

If this MJO wave keeps going the pattern will have to change when the wave gets to a favorable position for us.  If the wave dies this could go on for a long time.  There are years in the past that went dry through most of November.  None of those years had the insane dryness going into autumn that we had this year though.  If November is dry it should be cold if past history has anything to say about it.

No matter how you slice it this is getting weird though.

[Front Ranger]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....This GFS run was terrible.  Just as far from anything at the end of the run as we are now.

That's probably a good sign.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That's probably a good sign.

I dunno.  This pattern is about as stable as it gets.

[TT-SEA]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I dunno.  This pattern is about as stable as it gets.

Maybe the effects from Tonga have altered the normal patterns?   No way to know for sure, but we do know there is an unprecedented situation in the stratosphere right now in terms of water vapor.

[GoldenEars]

Sad to see a big portion of my favorite park in Coquitlam burn up today. Made it all the way up to 79 degrees today in Pitt Meadows.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF looks similar to its 12Z run for early next week.   A little farther east with the troughing to the north but the overall evolution is about the same.   That probably means it's going to happen.   

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

You realize that it can also be very warm and UHI can still exacerbate records, right?

Not mutually exclusive.

For sure. The PDX record most Definitely has a large dose of uhi tossed in.