October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

You realize that it can also be very warm and UHI can still exacerbate records, right?

Not mutually exclusive.

For sure. The PDX record most Definitely has a large dose of uhi tossed in. 

[ShawniganLake]

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 12:07 a.m. PDT Sunday 2 October 2022.

Discussion.

A ridge of high pressure brought another warm autumn day. 

The following areas set a daily maximum temperature record on 
October 1, 2022 (temperature values given in degrees Celsius): 

Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) 
New record of 26.6 
Old record of 26.3 set in 2012 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Clearwater Area (Clearwater Auto) 
New record of 24.8 
Old record of 23.9 set in 1923 
Records in this area have been kept since 1913 

Comox Area (Comox A) 
New record of 23.0 
Old record of 22.9 set in 1992 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Courtenay Area (Comox A) 
New record of 23.0 
Old record of 22.9 set in 1992 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Hope Area (Hope Airport) 
New record of 28.8 
Old record of 27.7 set in 1987 
Records in this area have been kept since 1936 

Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) 
New record of 27.3 
Old record of 26.9 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

Merritt Area (Merritt) 
New record of 27.9 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1975 
Records in this area have been kept since 1918 

Port Alberni Area (Port Alberni (AUT)) 
New record of 28.0 
Old record of 26.5 set in 1987 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Revelstoke Area (Revelstoke Airport Auto) 
New record of 23.1 
Old record of 22.8 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1898 

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe the effects from Tonga have altered the normal patterns?   No way to know for sure, but we do know there is an unprecedented situation in the stratosphere right now in terms of water vapor.

Yeah the situation in the stratosphere is unprecedented in recorded history. Can’t neglect it.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah the situation in the stratosphere is unprecedented in recorded history. Can’t neglect it.

No doubt something really weird is going on.  I will say this is no more messed up than the 1930s were though.

All I know is the pattern will change eventually.  Huge potential for something epic later on.

[snow_wizard]

SH temps are -0.5 right now.  No sign of any warming from Hunga Tonga.  Global temps only +0.2.

[snow_wizard]

EPS shows us drier than an SOB right through the end of the run. 

[snow_wizard]

No doubt this is some crazy shit caused by the volcano.  25S to 65S at the 30mb level is where it really shows up.

[snow_wizard]

How can I get weenie tagged and downvoted for statements that are provably true?  Only one post had any kind of speculation involved.

[Cloud]

Made it back home today and looking at the models.. bruh... wtf?!

[Kayla]

Looks like Bozeman ended up with 23.06" of precipitation for the water year which is a bit above the average of 20". 

Had a 51/45 day here yesterday with just 0.06" of rainfall. Already up to 0.42" on the day today though and it's still raining. currently 45F.

It has been another really beneficial rainfall, especially for Central Montana.

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

EPS shows us drier than an SOB right through the end of the run. 

You weren't kidding.   I won't believe a pattern change is imminent until I see it on the EPS.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 12:07 a.m. PDT Sunday 2 October 2022.

Discussion.

A ridge of high pressure brought another warm autumn day. 

The following areas set a daily maximum temperature record on 
October 1, 2022 (temperature values given in degrees Celsius): 

Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) 
New record of 26.6 
Old record of 26.3 set in 2012 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Clearwater Area (Clearwater Auto) 
New record of 24.8 
Old record of 23.9 set in 1923 
Records in this area have been kept since 1913 

Comox Area (Comox A) 
New record of 23.0 
Old record of 22.9 set in 1992 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Courtenay Area (Comox A) 
New record of 23.0 
Old record of 22.9 set in 1992 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Hope Area (Hope Airport) 
New record of 28.8 
Old record of 27.7 set in 1987 
Records in this area have been kept since 1936 

Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) 
New record of 27.3 
Old record of 26.9 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

Merritt Area (Merritt) 
New record of 27.9 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1975 
Records in this area have been kept since 1918 

Port Alberni Area (Port Alberni (AUT)) 
New record of 28.0 
Old record of 26.5 set in 1987 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Revelstoke Area (Revelstoke Airport Auto) 
New record of 23.1 
Old record of 22.8 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1898 

 

No 30’s anymore. I guess that’s a sign of progress.

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, Cloud said:

Made it back home today and looking at the models.. bruh... wtf?!

I’m in the 1st shade of grey! 

[TT-SEA]

56 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Looks like Bozeman ended up with 23.06" of precipitation for the water year which is a bit above the average of 20". 

Had a 51/45 day here yesterday with just 0.06" of rainfall. Already up to 0.42" on the day today though and it's still raining. currently 45F.

It has been another really beneficial rainfall, especially for Central Montana.

SEA ended the water year with 45.48 inches which is +6.14 compared to normal.    

Ending up much wetter than normal... despite setting records for the warmest and driest July - September period ever and a summer which also set a record the longest streak of 90+ degree days and the most 90+ days in total.  

When I was looking up the updated SEA average annual rainfall (which is higher than the long term average)... I found this chart which shows how the average temps changed by month with the 1991-2020 averages and its not correct to say that its really only summer that is has been getting warmer.    Its probably more accurate to say that the January - March period has been warming more slowly.   The increase in average temps was pretty consistent from April - December and not just focused on summer.

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA ended the water year with 45.48 inches which is +6.14 compared to normal.    

Ending up much wetter than normal... despite setting records for the warmest and driest July - September period ever and a summer which also set a record the longest streak of 90+ degree days and the most 90+ days in total.  

When I was looking up the updated SEA average annual rainfall (which is higher than the long term average)... I found this chart which shows how the average temps changed by month with the 1991-2020 averages and its not correct to say that its really only summer that is has been getting warmer.    Its probably more accurate to say that the January - March period has been warming more slowly.   The increase in average temps was pretty consistent from April - December and not just focused on summer.

Great find! Although there is really only one particular member that has been saying that only the summers have been warming. Do you have the link for that chart?

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Great find! Although there is really only one particular member that has been saying that only the summers have been warming. Do you have the link for that chart?

It was in a Seattle Weather Blog tweet from last year...

 

[RentonHill]

Long run GEFS will probably enjoy its highest verification rate ever for this run

[SnowWillarrive]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

EPS shows us drier than an SOB right through the end of the run. 

I wonder if will ever see rain again 

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I wonder if will ever see rain again 

That is what I've been wondering in Oklahoma, I haven't seen at least 1/4 inch of rain in a month. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

No below normal days the whole month. Sounds right to me. 65 out of the last 70 days including today have been above normal. Let’s go for 95 out of 100. 

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

No below normal days the whole month. Sounds right to me. 65 out of the last 70 days including today have been above normal. Let’s go for 95 out of 100. 

 

That looks ridiculously wet compared to the likely reality based on the EPS.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That looks ridiculously wet compared to the likely reality based on the EPS.

Agreed. It’s really not that wet though. It seems to revert to climatology more than anything for precipitation that far out. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

EPS shows us drier than an SOB right through the end of the run. 

A mild and wet November-March seems pretty likely.  

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Agreed. It’s really not that wet though. It seems to revert to climatology more than anything for precipitation that far out. 

This is what wet looks like…

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Caught some beautiful fall colors in the Tatoosh Range south of Mt Rainier yesterday.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Colors are great higher up but lower town in the woods most of the understory and vine maple were drying up and turning brown, sadly.

[Phil]

06Z GEFS has a massive warm blob in SW Canada right through day 16. That GOA trough doesn’t wanna move.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The globe is on fire.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The globe is on fire.

Jim says it’s only +0.2 compared to a 2141-2170 baseline.

[Phil]

Some indication the mass circulation could be affected by the huge load of H2O in the stratosphere. Need to see how things develop heading into the winter, but I now believe it will indeed prove highly consequential.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

Some indication the mass circulation could be affected by the huge load of H2O in the stratosphere. Need to see how things develop heading into the winter, but I now believe it will indeed prove highly consequential.

I’m sure it will be a convenient scapegoat whatever happens 

[T-Town]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Caught some beautiful fall colors in the Tatoosh Range south of Mt Rainier yesterday.

Great shots. Thanks for sharing. 

[Phil]

Even though the La Niña is evident in the big picture NH pattern, across the CONUS it actually does resemble El Niño to some extent.

The SW Canada warmth and cool troughing in the SE US is the canonical +ENSO pattern. Most of the *real* arctic cold pool is developing on Putin’s side of the pole.

[Phil]

Also one of the earliest Siberian high descents I can recall upcoming this week.

In the winter this would disrupt the PV and send a massive block into AK or Greenland. But it’s useless at this time of year.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m sure it will be a convenient scapegoat whatever happens 

Probably. But given the importance of the stratosphere in seasonal/subseasonal variability, the scapegoating may prove correct.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Probably. But given the importance of the stratosphere in seasonal/subseasonal variability, the scapegoating may prove correct.

It may affect things but I feel like we don’t know enough at this stage to tease out what it could be affecting and what is just normal climate noise/AGW.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It may affect things but I feel like we don’t know enough at this stage to tease out what it could be affecting and what is just normal climate noise/AGW.

Agreed. The pattern right now can’t be demonstrably linked to the H2O/strat. At least not beyond the hypothetical.

I’d look towards mid/late winter for the more clearcut effects.

[Omegaraptor]

Smoky in the Gorge and smells like smoke too. Not sure whether this is from the Bolt Creek Fire or somewhere else. Looks hazier N/W towards Wenatchee.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

31 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m sure it will be a convenient scapegoat whatever happens 

This is why I believe that analogs are useless. Wayyyyy too many variables and too short of a recorded history of weather. 

[RentonHill]

38 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Colors are great higher up but lower town in the woods most of the understory and vine maple were drying up and turning brown, sadly.

It took me a second to realize that the leaves dropping from the maples werent the typica big yellow fall ones. They were sad curly brown ones. 

[RentonHill]

30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Even though the La Niña is evident in the big picture NH pattern, across the CONUS it actually does resemble El Niño to some extent.

The SW Canada warmth and cool troughing in the SE US is the canonical +ENSO pattern. Most of the *real* arctic cold pool is developing on Putin’s side of the pole.

Is that part of Roundys analysis?? Like how the winter develops on our side depends if Siberia gets early snow cover or not or somethjng

[Phil]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Is that part of Roundys analysis?? Like how the winter develops on our side depends if Siberia gets early snow cover or not or somethjng

I think you mean Judah Cohen? Aka Dr. SnowSweater.

[TacomaWx]

Low of 52 this morning pretty smoky as well the worst it’s been in several days. 

[Doinko]

15 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Low of 52 this morning pretty smoky as well the worst it’s been in several days. 

Clear of smoke here, it hasn't been bad since the east wind event but I could smell smoke one or two times. Not as bad as up there though.

 

[MossMan]

Becoming a weekly routine washing the ash and driveway dust off my truck. Now time to watch the Seahawks lose! 

[Omegaraptor]

No wind in Ellensburg again. Has not lived up to expectations so far.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

No wind in Ellensburg again. Has not lived up to expectations so far.

Go back in the spring, you will find plenty of it! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Air quality is starting to get truly nasty this morning.

[Phishy Wx]

15 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Some incredibly interesting stuff happened in the late 1920s through early 1940s that offers a lot of hope going forward.  1929 and 1936 both featured a ridiculously dry October / November with 1929 reaching 80 in Landsburg on October 23.  Both years featured abnormally cold mins in November followed by a very wet December and then epic cold Januarys.  1942 featured a very dry September / October (up until Oct 29th). Followed by very wet weather from the very end of Oct through November, a typical December, and then extreme blocking and deep cold in January.  We'll see if this year takes a similar path.  The theme of these kinds of seasons seems to be cold holding off until the heart of the winter.

I do like the 88-89 comparison.  not buying too much into analogs close to 100 years old

[RentonHill]

18 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

No wind in Ellensburg again. Has not lived up to expectations so far.

Thats how you know things are really weird right now.