October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[rsktkr]

Very early signs of a MASSIVE pattern shift to show up in the models starting in the next 48 hours or so.

[MossMan]

74/50 on the day.

Currently 57. Degrees 

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just 5 stations, bro. 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Just 5 stations, bro. 

If Olympia didn’t make the cut than it doesn’t count. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

If Olympia didn’t make the cut than it doesn’t count. 

It did, 65.4 avg beating out 65.0 from 1967

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

It did, 65.4 avg beating out 65.0 from 1967

my man

[High Desert Mathew]

00z looks similar so far. Need things to improve. The ferns over there are paying a steep price. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

00z = buzkill

[Meatyorologist]

hahahaha!!!

[Doom Buster]

4 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Fires in the north cascades and cedar creek looked like they picked up intensity today. Continued offshore flow in the coming days won’t help. 

Wonder when the last fire season in the PNW extended into October. Definitely been awhile.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

It did, 65.4 avg beating out 65.0 from 1967

Flat ranger will not be pleased. Station of the gods. 

[Doom Buster]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

If Olympia didn’t make the cut than it doesn’t count. 

You realize that it can also be very warm and UHI can still exacerbate records, right?

Not mutually exclusive.

[Doom Buster]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Flat ranger will not be pleased. Station of the gods. 

Ninth warmest September on record for OLM. Pleasing compared to 3rd at SEA and 1st at PDX. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wonder when the last fire season in the PNW extended into October. Definitely been awhile.

IIRC there was some wildfire smoke around in October 2017…but I can’t remember if it was from California or not. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Still no sign of any meaningful rainfall the next 10 days on the gfs or cmc. In the fall of 2012 the faucet turned on October 12th. I think sometime mid month the pattern will finally shift and we will get our first real storms. Could really use a pattern like we had during the 2nd half of that month. Picked up 7.57” of rain from 10/12-10/31 that year. 

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

74/50 today was the warmest October day since 10/6/14 when we pulled off a 75/53. That’s also the warmest day I’ve recorded 2005 to present. Pretty good chance we break that record coming up. 

79/47 here.  Amazing how much higher spread I end up with here.  It's so incredibly dry here it's able to plunge at night very easily.

[snow_wizard]

Geeze.  Out of the last 3 Octobers I've only had three 70+ days here.  All in 2020 and all low 70s.  These next few days are going to be at just plain freaky levels.  Something big is going to happen when we come out of this.  Just don't know what exactly.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

79/47 here.  Amazing how much higher spread I end up with here.  It's so incredibly dry here it's able to plunge at night very easily.

Longer nights definitely help out despite the warm airmass. Down to 11 hours and 40 minutes of daylight as of today. Overnight lows still haven’t been very impressive here for late September/early October. DPs are in the mid 50s across the area right too. 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Still no sign of any meaningful rainfall the next 10 days on the gfs or cmc. In the fall of 2012 the faucet turned on October 12th. I think sometime mid month the pattern will finally shift and we will get our first real storms. Could really use a pattern like we had during the 2nd half of that month. Picked up 7.57” of rain from 10/12-10/31 that year. 

Yeah....This GFS run was terrible.  Just as far from anything at the end of the run as we are now.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Longer nights definitely help out despite the warm airmass. Down to 11 hours and 40 minutes of daylight as of today. Overnight lows still haven’t been very impressive here for late September/early October. DPs are in the mid 50s across the area right too. 

I sure wish the dps were lower.  As it is the nights are long enough and ground dry enough that the dp gets chased down through the night here.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....This GFS run was terrible.  Just as far from anything at the end of the run as we are now.

80 degrees at PDX on October 17th. It’s so ridiculous that I believe it might verify. 

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  Out of the last 3 Octobers I've only had three 70+ days here.  All in 2020 and all low 70s.  These next few days are going to be at just plain freaky levels.  Something big is going to happen when we come out of this.  Just don't know what exactly.

 

[snow_wizard]

If this MJO wave keeps going the pattern will have to change when the wave gets to a favorable position for us.  If the wave dies this could go on for a long time.  There are years in the past that went dry through most of November.  None of those years had the insane dryness going into autumn that we had this year though.  If November is dry it should be cold if past history has anything to say about it.

No matter how you slice it this is getting weird though.

[Doom Buster]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....This GFS run was terrible.  Just as far from anything at the end of the run as we are now.

That's probably a good sign.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That's probably a good sign.

I dunno.  This pattern is about as stable as it gets.

[TT-SEA]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I dunno.  This pattern is about as stable as it gets.

Maybe the effects from Tonga have altered the normal patterns?   No way to know for sure, but we do know there is an unprecedented situation in the stratosphere right now in terms of water vapor.

[GoldenEars]

Sad to see a big portion of my favorite park in Coquitlam burn up today. Made it all the way up to 79 degrees today in Pitt Meadows.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF looks similar to its 12Z run for early next week.   A little farther east with the troughing to the north but the overall evolution is about the same.   That probably means it's going to happen.   

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

You realize that it can also be very warm and UHI can still exacerbate records, right?

Not mutually exclusive.

For sure. The PDX record most Definitely has a large dose of uhi tossed in. 

[ShawniganLake]

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 12:07 a.m. PDT Sunday 2 October 2022.

Discussion.

A ridge of high pressure brought another warm autumn day. 

The following areas set a daily maximum temperature record on 
October 1, 2022 (temperature values given in degrees Celsius): 

Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) 
New record of 26.6 
Old record of 26.3 set in 2012 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Clearwater Area (Clearwater Auto) 
New record of 24.8 
Old record of 23.9 set in 1923 
Records in this area have been kept since 1913 

Comox Area (Comox A) 
New record of 23.0 
Old record of 22.9 set in 1992 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Courtenay Area (Comox A) 
New record of 23.0 
Old record of 22.9 set in 1992 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Hope Area (Hope Airport) 
New record of 28.8 
Old record of 27.7 set in 1987 
Records in this area have been kept since 1936 

Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) 
New record of 27.3 
Old record of 26.9 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

Merritt Area (Merritt) 
New record of 27.9 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1975 
Records in this area have been kept since 1918 

Port Alberni Area (Port Alberni (AUT)) 
New record of 28.0 
Old record of 26.5 set in 1987 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Revelstoke Area (Revelstoke Airport Auto) 
New record of 23.1 
Old record of 22.8 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1898 

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe the effects from Tonga have altered the normal patterns?   No way to know for sure, but we do know there is an unprecedented situation in the stratosphere right now in terms of water vapor.

Yeah the situation in the stratosphere is unprecedented in recorded history. Can’t neglect it.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah the situation in the stratosphere is unprecedented in recorded history. Can’t neglect it.

No doubt something really weird is going on.  I will say this is no more messed up than the 1930s were though.

All I know is the pattern will change eventually.  Huge potential for something epic later on.

[snow_wizard]

SH temps are -0.5 right now.  No sign of any warming from Hunga Tonga.  Global temps only +0.2.

[snow_wizard]

EPS shows us drier than an SOB right through the end of the run. 

[snow_wizard]

No doubt this is some crazy shit caused by the volcano.  25S to 65S at the 30mb level is where it really shows up.

[snow_wizard]

How can I get weenie tagged and downvoted for statements that are provably true?  Only one post had any kind of speculation involved.

[Cloud]

Made it back home today and looking at the models.. bruh... wtf?!

[Kayla]

Looks like Bozeman ended up with 23.06" of precipitation for the water year which is a bit above the average of 20". 

Had a 51/45 day here yesterday with just 0.06" of rainfall. Already up to 0.42" on the day today though and it's still raining. currently 45F.

It has been another really beneficial rainfall, especially for Central Montana.

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

EPS shows us drier than an SOB right through the end of the run. 

You weren't kidding.   I won't believe a pattern change is imminent until I see it on the EPS.