October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Some indication the mass circulation could be affected by the huge load of H2O in the stratosphere. Need to see how things develop heading into the winter, but I now believe it will indeed prove highly consequential.

Nina became a pseudo Nino?

[Phishy Wx]

35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Becoming a weekly routine washing the ash and driveway dust off my truck. Now time to watch the Seahawks lose! 

Analog?

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Analog?

1949. 

[ShawniganLake]

The GEFS actually had a decent number of members showing us getting clipped by a chilly airmass after the 10th.   

[Omegaraptor]

@snow_wizard Definitely understand your rave reviews about the Liberty Mountains now! May have to come back and explore them at some point.

I-90 from Seattle to Ellensburg is definitely one of the top stretches of interstate in the US.

[Meatyorologist]

Temperature isn't the only way energy can be stored in a system. Given that stratospheric temperatures are at unprecedented record lows, multiple standard deviations below both running averages and previous records, it is demonstrably true that there is an energy imbalance in the atmosphere.

Where that energy has gone, I don't know. Maybe the world temperature departure would be +0.1F instead of +0.2F, maybe the earth's oceans are a little warmer, or certain weather systems (ridges, large scale storms with tropical-midlatitude connections) are amplified. Maybe that energy is being put into evaporation, or glacial melt. Either way, it's there. If it weren't, the stratosphere wouldn't be so cold.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Euro decides to mix things up a little and put us under a massive ridge toward day 10

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Temperature isn't the only way energy can be stored in a system. Given that stratospheric temperatures are at unprecedented record lows, multiple standard deviations below both running averages and previous records, it is demonstrably true that there is an energy imbalance in the atmosphere.

Where that energy has gone, I don't know. Maybe the world temperature departure would be +0.1F instead of +0.2F, maybe the earth's oceans are a little warmer, or certain weather systems (ridges, large scale storms with tropical-midlatitude connections) are amplified. Maybe that energy is being put into evaporation, or glacial melt. Either way, it's there. If it weren't, the stratosphere wouldn't be so cold.

Hmm what is the likely culprit? Wish I had become a scientist like I wanted to become in middle school. 

[TacomaWx]

70 here just before noon. Haven’t recorded a high above 75 in October before (2005-present). Might do it today and tomorrow. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Euro decides to mix things up a little and put us under a massive ridge toward day 10

The way it’s looking we might have to wait even longer than we did in 2012 for a flip to wetter weather. The dryness and warmth since early July has been even more anomalous than this spring even was. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Euro decides to mix things up a little and put us under a massive ridge toward day 10

Would be a nice change of pace, honestly. God forbid we had a repeat of 2020. 

[James Jones]

The Euro shows us briefly getting clipped by that system before igniting another round of warm offshore flow. Sounds about right. Fire danger could be pretty high with that, something that feels bizarre to talk about since it will be nearly mid October by then.

[RentonHill]

The new Omega pattern

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The way it’s looking we might have to wait even longer than we did in 2012 for a flip to wetter weather. The dryness and warmth since early July has been even more anomalous than this spring even was. 

The only thing anomalous about this spring is that we had to wait ten years for one like it 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, James Jones said:

The Euro shows us briefly getting clipped by that system before igniting another round of warm offshore flow. Sounds about right. Fire danger could be pretty high with that, something that feels bizarre to talk about since it will be nearly mid October by then.

AQI is 74 here it’s worse than it looks on satellite imagery. Looks like this is gonna go on for awhile. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Something tells me Jim is super stoked by how weird things look right now!!!!!

 

[James Jones]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

AQI is 74 here it’s worse than it looks on satellite imagery. Looks like this is gonna go on for awhile. 

Yeah, looks nasty on the ground from pictures I've seen. We've been very lucky in the Portland area to have only had a few days with particularly bad smoke.

[Kayla]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Euro decides to mix things up a little and put us under a massive ridge toward day 10

First signs of cool offshore flow though.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Hmm what is the likely culprit? Wish I had become a scientist like I wanted to become in middle school. 

It would come from a reduction on outgoing energy, that way it builds up in the Troposphere instead of radiating out into space.

And I should impress that the energy imbalance measured could very well be indistinguishable at a macro scale. Or perhaps it could be demonstrating itself transiently. The whole atmos/cryo/hydro system is so complex and interconnected that there is very little way of telling just *how* much energy has been added to the sfc system, or what the hell it is even doing to it, tangibly.

Basically what I am trying to say is that both @snow_wizard and @TT-SEA have been enjoying their hot dogs lately, seeing as their posts regarding the Hunga Tonga eruption have been very... presumptuous... in nature, regarding its current and future impacts, as well as the scope of its effects.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, James Jones said:

Yeah, looks nasty on the ground from pictures I've seen. We've been very lucky in the Portland area to have only had a few days with particularly bad smoke.

We’ve had lots of weak-moderate offshore flow since the east wind event in early September. Just continuing to go on and on. Very bizarre to be in October with everything so bone dry smoky and absolutely no sign of cooler wet weather to change it. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

First signs of cool offshore flow though.

We need rain 

[Kayla]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We need rain 

No doubt. I've never seen the fire/smoke season last as long as it has for the PNW. Especially unusual considering that the rest of the west is actually decently moist thanks to these cutoffs. We're living in an upside down world it seems.

[Omegaraptor]

You know it’s been dry when the grass in North Bend and the grass in Vantage are the same color.

[Phishy Wx]

[Phil]

LR EPS is insanely warm.

This is a 52 member mean, 15 days out.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

LR EPS is insanely warm.

This is a 52 member mean, 15 days out.

Weird.

[Omegaraptor]

Whoa. Troutdale at 85. 

[Meatyorologist]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

LR EPS is insanely warm.

This is a 52 member mean, 15 days out.

I have a feeling it's going to crash hard in December.

[Front Ranger]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA ended the water year with 45.48 inches which is +6.14 compared to normal.    

Ending up much wetter than normal... despite setting records for the warmest and driest July - September period ever and a summer which also set a record the longest streak of 90+ degree days and the most 90+ days in total.  

When I was looking up the updated SEA average annual rainfall (which is higher than the long term average)... I found this chart which shows how the average temps changed by month with the 1991-2020 averages and its not correct to say that its really only summer that is has been getting warmer.    Its probably more accurate to say that the January - March period has been warming more slowly.   The increase in average temps was pretty consistent from April - December and not just focused on summer.

Again though, it's ignoring the elephant in the room to only go off SEA's numbers.

I suspect a similar trend, with less warming, at stations that have seen less UHI increase.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The only thing anomalous about this spring is that we had to wait ten years for one like it 

This is objectively wrong.

[kokaneekidz]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Something tells me Jim is super stoked by how weird things look right now!!!!!

 

Put that COFFEE down, coffee's for closers

[TacomaWx]

Some low 80s popping up around the area. 73 here. 

[MossMan]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Some low 80s popping up around the area. 73 here. 

Spiked to 77 here, dropped back to 75 currently. Insane! 

[fubario]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Something tells me Jim is super stoked by how weird things look right now!!!!!

 

You spelled Tim wrong.

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, fubario said:

You spelled Tim wrong.

Two sides of the same irrational coin

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This year had far less smoke here than the past two. And a lot of new green shoots coming up after the rain this week. The worm will turn.

[RentonHill]

Atleast 10 days until precip. Gee whiz. 

 

[Phil]

There are EPS members with 21-22°C 850mb temps over PDX on October 16th. That seems pretty outrageous.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

The end is here. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We need rain 

When don't we?

[Mr Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Something tells me Jim is super stoked by how weird things look right now!!!!!

 

[snow_wizard]

The models are just a train wreck today.  Incredible actually.

My money is on a reckoning later on.  We'll see.  No way this regime will hold through the entire cold season with a significant Nina in play.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

WTF? 

[Meatyorologist]

18z gonna be a banger, calling it now

[snow_wizard]

55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This year had far less smoke here than the past two. And a lot of new green shoots coming up after the rain this week. The worm will turn.

This has gotten to the point where it has to lead to something significant.  May be nothing more than exceptional rain, but something is coming.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Two sides of the same irrational coin

You might need to do some self reflection as well.  I'm not sure most people would say you are the picture of rational right now.

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This has gotten to the point where it has to lead to something significant.  May be nothing more than exceptional rain, but something is coming.

...drought?

[Doinko]

86 at PDX already

[Meatyorologist]

21 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z gonna be a banger, calling it now

150 hours in, and the only banging going on is the kind that involves both my head and the wall to my left.

[RentonHill]

I love looking at the temp graphs for years. Amazing how different some are. I would have assumed there would be much more normality/consistency on a big picture.