October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Omegaraptor]

Really feel for people living in Oakridge. They’ve been in 500 AQI hell for what, a month and a half now?

[GobBluth]

GFS is already heading in a brutal direction by day 7.

[RentonHill]

This is going to hurt
 

[RentonHill]

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

GEM threw in the towel. It's over.

 

 

Vs:

 

[Cloud]

GFS is still floundering. Weird model. 

[GobBluth]

Just now, Cloud said:

GFS is still floundering. Weird model. 

It kind of gets there in a broad splitty trough offshore. Definitely not the zonal jet it was hyping a few days ago.

[Omegaraptor]

If any wet pattern even occurs I doubt it lasts more than a few days.

[Cloud]

Just now, GobBluth said:

It kind of gets there in a broad splitty trough offshore. Definitely not the zonal jet it was hyping a few days ago.

It is a trend with it though and it's a bad trend from day 7 onward and this run looks worse. We pretty much have nothing to show for now.

[Omegaraptor]

It splits apart and misses Oregon entirely with precipitation.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

3 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

It kind of gets there in a broad splitty trough offshore. Definitely not the zonal jet it was hyping a few days ago.

Always delayed and always neutered. We know how this movie ends.

[AlTahoe]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It truly boggles the mind to think about how anomalously warm this month is going to end up. And that’s even if we manage to get a cool down closer to average the last ten days, which still looks iffy at best. 

The endless 80s this week and last are basically rewriting the record book and redefining what is possible climatologically the first half of October.

I had to look since it has been incredibly warm here as well. Our average high so far this month has been 68.6F. The record holder for the entire month is 1988 at 69.9F. 1988 was wild. 

[Cloud]

I guess the best way to look is through the GEFS rather than the GFS op run and even then, that's heading in the wrong direction it seems. 

[Omegaraptor]

What is the current most anomalously warm month on record?

[Cloud]

Ridge builds back in.. trough stays WELL offshore.... last week of October. Disturbing. 

[Christensen87]

This can't be happening...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our climate is a nightmare 

[Cloud]

lol.. this month is so fked... says the 12z.  holy what a nightmare of a run. 

[Omegaraptor]

Wonder how many Californian freshmen are being misled into thinking Corvallis has an East Bay-like climate.

[Winterdog]

I guess it makes sense, with the world in such a mess we might as well add in the weather.  

[Thunder98]

I hope you guys get your rain and snow soon! This is not good! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

I guess it makes sense, with the world in such a mess we might as well add in the weather.  

No silver linings. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

16 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

What is the current most anomalously warm month on record?

+6.7. We're at +8.0 so far with tons of warmth to go.

 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

+6.7. We're at +8.0 so far with tons of warmth to go.

 

June, 2015

[RentonHill]

cool

[Cloud]

Hide yo kids.. DO NOT look at this 12z GFS run. You've been warned. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

I grew up on the east coast in the Carolinas.  I was going to go to either UNC - Asheville, North Carolina State or Florida State for Meteorology instead I settled on staying in state and getting a BS in Geography from South Carolina. However I did take some Meteorology and Climatology classes and interned for 3 years at the South Carolina State Climatology office and the Southeast Regional Climate Center which at that time were in Columbia, SC near the University.  After college I volunteered to be a Winter Intern (and got picked on a phone interview, which was foreign in 1997) at the Mt Washington Observatory in New Hampshire and worked on a Rime Ice study up there for NCAR and the FAA amongst lots of grunt work cleaning the building and shoveling snow.  it was pretty cool and awesome weather wise (learned how to take official wx obs and experienced much extreme wx, frequent 100mph+ winds and blizzards).  But I never got the Meteorology degree because of the Math.  Pursued a career in GIS instead and now work in software sales

LOL the maths scared me off too.  I  grew up in the Atlanta area and got a high school internship at the Weather Channel.  At the time (spring 1990) there were only 2 options for accredited meteorology programs, a university in Florida, and a university in Oklahoma.

The staff meteorologist I worked with really sold the career...."so you are going to have to go to school out of state, and land a gig working for the NWS making about 30k a year after accumulating about $20-30k in student loans.  To really advance you need to get your Masters."  Then he went off on a long rant about all of the math (I did not have a good "relationship" with math at the time), so that was the final nail in the coffin for that career path.  Drifted for a long time career wise, and didn't get my Bachelor's degree until I was 47, and I have been involved in various aspects of designing/building and now selling commercial aircraft interiors for almost 20 years.

 

That gig you did on Mt Washington sounds pretty epic even if it was a lot of grunt work.  Even though it did not lead to a career, I loved my time at the Weather Channel.

 

 

[MossMan]

It’s over…Just like the Mariners playoff series. 
It’s a dark day in the Pacific Northwest. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

 

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

It’s over…Just like the Mariners playoff series. 
It’s a dark day in the Pacific Northwest. 

I wish. It's a bright sunny day just like 115 out of the last 120 days.

[Winterdog]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No silver linings. 

Yeah it’s like we always had nature as a constant regardless how screwed up the world became.  It feels like even that consistency or “silver lining” is fading away.

[Deweydog]

Next round of feet photos should be of all of us wearing Nikes and drinking Kool-Aid.

[Omegaraptor]

Meanwhile over where my uncle and grandma live…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Boring dirty carpet in Atlanta. 

[Sonny Summers]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Next round of feet photos should be of all of us wearing Nikes and drinking Kool-Aid.

I hope Phil Knight isn't involved.

[Sonny Summers]

Well, the patterns are incredibly persistent this year. If we can get into a cold one, it may last for a long time.

[Jbolin]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Next round of feet photos should be of all of us wearing Nikes and drinking Kool-Aid.

 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

A glimmer of hope?

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

Well, the patterns are incredibly persistent this year. If we can get into a cold one, it may last for a long time.

More likely we stay in a mild/dry one. Which is not to say that there won’t be any significant rain next month. I would be very surprised if that happens.

[Deweydog]

The models will converge on a more meaningful change once the M’s are down 2-0.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

A glimmer of hope?

 

10 days out. Always 10+ days out.