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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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We know drama...

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SnowfallĀ  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  2021-22: 91.46"Ā 

2020-21: 12.0"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2012-13: 78.45Ā Ā 

2011-12: 98.5"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Ā 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

Ā 

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43 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Fear not my friends. Winter is coming.Ā 

Thatā€™s just a generic La NiƱa forecast. Nothing has been close to generic NiƱa conditions in recent months. We could easily be in store for a ā€œdud La NiƱaā€ that ends up being on the dry and mild side.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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EC gets there. WB wasn't working for me for a bit. Looks like this has less for here than pivotal.

1666526400-gfy6m9qkNRE.png

1666526400-zssPvD22mZ4.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (JanĀ 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (JanĀ 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24Ā (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4Ā (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25ā€
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024Ā (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

Ā 

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Thatā€™s just a generic La NiƱa forecast. Nothing has been close to generic NiƱa conditions in recent months. We could easily be in store for a ā€œdud La NiƱaā€ that ends up being on the dry and mild side.

I bet you're fun at parties!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ĀŗF

Coldest daily low: -42ĀŗF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground:Ā 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Just now, Kayla said:

I bet you're fun at parties!

It wasn't meant to get cooler til the end of the month and then Nov-Feb will be exciting.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (JanĀ 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (JanĀ 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24Ā (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4Ā (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25ā€
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024Ā (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

Ā 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

the coldest wx of the season will be just before Thanksgiving and late January - early Feb

Ā 

bank it!

This is the kind of positivity we need. We're gonna make the playoffs this year. Only question is how deep? A regional snow event is pretty much a Super Bowl.

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  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (JanĀ 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (JanĀ 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24Ā (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4Ā (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25ā€
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024Ā (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

Ā 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Ah the lovely smoke is back...filling us up like a bathtub.

AQI at 187 and conditions are continuing to deteriorate. Headache and seizures starting up.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (JanĀ 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (JanĀ 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24Ā (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4Ā (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25ā€
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024Ā (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

Ā 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Thatā€™s just a generic La NiƱa forecast. Nothing has been close to generic NiƱa conditions in recent months. We could easily be in store for a ā€œdud La NiƱaā€ that ends up being on the dry and mild side.

Probably true but he's run this in prior years with La Nina signal with variations of what I'd see as generic La Nina. It is interesting that it paints Jan as a potential bullseye for this winter which has been absent recently.

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34 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Understandably, everyone is extremely anxious for a pattern change. Totally get it. I've been on this board for something like ten plus years now and it still never ceases to amaze me how quickly the mood changes on here with literally EVERY model run!šŸ˜‚

This has literally been the worst stretch of weather ever here.

On the plus side I have used it to get back into the best running shape that I've been in in years. Probably dating back to 2010 or so. Analog?

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9 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Predicting a massive blizzard in January that buries everyone from Medford up to Bellingham with various quantities of snow along with white-out conditions and the strongest easterly winds experienced in this regionĀ 

I wonder, is it genuinely possible to meet blizzardĀ criteria throughout the entire Willamette Valley at once? Some portions of the Portland area probably can, this area got there according to the COOP station there during December 1968 probably from downsloping off of the west hills. I would assume exposed areas in the west hills and east metro could definitely see thpse conditions as well.

Not sure what setup could bring blizzard conditions to the rest of the valley though

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27 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

It sure smells like that here.Ā  The smoke is as bad as ever today. 63 degrees.Ā Ā 

Much to the delight of @Rubus Leucodermis, it is very smoky and campfire smelly here in Whatcom County.

Ā 

Currently 67 IMBY.

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At this stage, there is literally nothing that seriously disproves the notion that we may be in the opening stages of a severe regional drought that lasts a year or more. Thereā€™s nothing that proves that notion, either, of course. Itā€™s mostly a hunch based on how we are so much out of classic La NiƱa patterns in this region, and that this may well persist. It may be an effect of Hunga Tonga; who knows.

Regardless, I am not going to put much faith in models that show pattern changes always happening 10+ days out. It could easily be mid/late November before the RRR relents and (temporarily, at least) lets some moisture in.

P.S. Hope you all enjoy my new (at least for today; will probably change it back soon) profile pic.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

At this stage, there is literally nothing that seriously disproves the notion that we may be in the opening stages of a severe regional drought. Thereā€™s nothing that proves that notion, either, of course. Itā€™s mostly a hunch based on how we are so much out of classic La NiƱa patterns in this region, and that this may well persist. It may be an effect of Hunga Tonga; who knows.

Regardless, I am not going to put much faith in models that show pattern changes always happening 10+ days out. It could easily be mid/late November before the RRR relents and (temporarily, at least) lets some moisture in.

P.S. Hope you all enjoy my new (at least for today; will probably change it back soon) profile pic.

This reads like some weird AI program that used comments from Jesse, Tim, and maybe some Phil to generate its composite algo.Ā 

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

This reads like some weird AI program that used comments from Jesse, Tim, and maybe some Phil to generate its composite algo.Ā 

I used only one acronym in my post. No way could it be the output of an AI trained by Philā€™s posts.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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46 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

It sure smells like that here.Ā  The smoke is as bad as ever today. 63 degrees.Ā Ā 

Yeah I was just going to sayā€¦Itā€™s horrible up here.Ā 

Elevation 580ā€™ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth!Ā 

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34 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I wonder, is it genuinely possible to meet blizzardĀ criteria throughout the entire Willamette Valley at once? Some portions of the Portland area probably can, this area got there according to the COOP station there during December 1968 probably from downsloping off of the west hills. I would assume exposed areas in the west hills and east metro could definitely see thpse conditions as well.

Not sure what setup could bring blizzard conditions to the rest of the valley though

A cross-Cascade gradient would do it here.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (JanĀ 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (JanĀ 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24Ā (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4Ā (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25ā€
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024Ā (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

Ā 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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