October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Even the one true non-UHI representative station in the whole PNW only shows a 49 in the next week!

 

The one bright spot in that is that it shows a big cool-down happening in less than 10 days!

[NWbyNW]

36 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

These have been wrong the last several times. lol 

I wish it wasn't wrong though because I am smelling smoke again.

[Sonny Summers]

4 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

These have been wrong the last several times. lol 

I wish it wasn't wrong though because I am smelling smoke again.

It's like the enso forecast models. Given the trends at the moment, this will happen or will be the outcome. It could be totally different tomorrow.

[ShawniganLake]

58 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Funny how your body knows… Sunny and 72 at noon on 10/13 feels oppressive.

I notice it when working the past week or so.  75F seems hot right now.  In July or august it would feel totally pleasant 

[FroYoBro]

I'm a little late, but thought I might as well post my feet too!

Just spent the last 4 hours shaving. 

 

 

[T-Town]

Glad I didn’t put the portable AC away…

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

This has literally been the worst stretch of weather ever here.

On the plus side I have used it to get back into the best running shape that I've been in in years. Probably dating back to 2010 or so. Analog?

Ha nice work! While things haven't been quite as anomalous out here, its definitely been unusual for it to be so comfortable this month! Especially compared to the last couple of years with temps dropping below zero in October with loads of snow. Definitely a 1988 vibe to it. 

[RentonHill]

[Kayla]

For all the doubters out there. 12z EPS continues to be rock steady and is showing a really strong signal for troughing AND the timing is moving ahead to before day 10 now.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

For all the doubters out there. 12z EPS continues to be rock steady and is showing a really strong signal for troughing AND the timing is moving ahead to before day 10 now.

 

Hey, I wouldn't mind being proven wrong!

If anything, the timing seems to have moved up a little. Getting within 10 days is the first step. The five-day mark is the next major hurdle. If it clears the latter, odds are it is not a meteorological will-o’-the-wisp.

[Cloud]

22 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Glad I didn’t put the portable AC away…

We're well on our way in rewriting the records book. 

[Gradient Keeper]

14 minutes ago, Kayla said:

For all the doubters out there. 12z EPS continues to be rock steady and is showing a really strong signal for troughing AND the timing is moving ahead to before day 10 now.

 

You beat me to it. Timing definitely moving ahead with the pattern change beginning around Day 7-8. A cluster of ensemble members suggests it could be quite chilly with mountain snows.

18z GFS in 12 minutes

[mtep]

It's pretty wild how warm the sun can feel in mid-October. These are February sun angles right? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, mtep said:

It's pretty wild how warm the sun can feel in mid-October. These are February sun angles right? 

Seasonal lag is an interesting phenomenon.

[Cloud]

26 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

For Seattle, 

quite a dive next week and looks rock solid  for 3rd week of Oct.. 

[ShawniganLake]

77F here “unofficially”. Record high for today is only 71F.  Seems likely we’ll squeak past that. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Office luncheon today.

[RentonHill]

17 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Office luncheon today.

at Cafe Milano?

[Cloud]

Surface level smoke is bad this afternoon. Can smell it, can see it…. Even less than a block away. 

[TT-SEA]

73 at SEA... does that tie the record for the most 70-degree days in October?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

73 at SEA... does that tie the record for the most 70-degree days in October?

My money is on them breaking the most 80-degree ones as well. They only need one more, and it’s achievable this weekend. If so, it would also be the latest 80-degree day. Any other outcome just doesn’t seem compatible with the sort of October this is shaping up to be.

[Cloud]

Looking across BFI. Yuck 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Currently 68°F after a high of 73. Was just out getting boosted for COVID and the smoke isn’t too bad at all up this way.

[BLI snowman]

GFS is working to outdo itself.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Please go west...

 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

GFS is working to outdo itself.

GEM from yesterday (i think) wanted to do what GFS is doing in the 18z

[snow_wizard]

WTF?

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

GFS is working to outdo itself.

It's almost like the GFS and ECMWF are forecasting for different planets.

[MossMan]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

WTF?

[Cloud]

11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

GFS is working to outdo itself.

It…. It decides to completely miss the PNW and brings rain to NorCal instead 

[snow_wizard]

33 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My money is on them breaking the most 80-degree ones as well. They only need one more, and it’s achievable this weekend. If so, it would also be the latest 80-degree day. Any other outcome just doesn’t seem compatible with the sort of October this is shaping up to be.

Yeah...A good shot at 80 on Sunday.

[TacomaWx]

Another awesome day in Yellowstone. 

[Sonny Summers]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF?

Yee Haw! The models is a feudin'. My bet is on the ECMWF. The GFS is Good For $hit.

[Doinko]

Hazy

[snow_wizard]

Wow what a terrible run.

[LowerGarfield]

19 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Another awesome day in Yellowstone. 

Gorgeous photos! My favorite is the Geyser in the distance.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

Yee Haw! The models is a feudin'. My bet is on the ECMWF. The GFS is Good For $hit.

Normally the Euro is the more accurate of the two but ever since last July it has been unwise to bet against dryness and torching. So who knows which will prevail.

[Deweydog]

Latest 83+ on record at PDX.

[TacomaWx]

Looks like a 64/23 today in west Yellowstone and 70/44 back home. Glad I’m missing out on the smoke there’s absolutely none here. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Normally the Euro is the more accurate of the two but ever since last July it has been unwise to bet against dryness and torching. So who knows which will prevail.

I'm going for around a 60% chance the ECMWF will be right.  I have no idea why the GFS and ECMWF are so different right now.