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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx
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Another thing about those analogs.  Almost all had the best stuff of the winter in either Dec or Jan.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

83 here with east wind surfacing even west of I-5. Gross.

68 with smoke ain't much better.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They broke through around 11am here which is pretty average for a warm downslope event.

Today's WRF GFS run shows them breaking through pretty late, at around 6 or 7pm. But then once it does it shows gusts 30-35mph throughout the night.
cgw_wgsfc.14.0000.gif

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Fantastic EPS run.  The pattern looks to set in pretty solidly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Still gotta wait and see

The point of no return is within the 5 day window now.  Close to being safe, but not 100% yet.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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3 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I can’t get on board with the rain for the end of next week until the ICON is on board. It’s not at this point, but it is for a big cooldown.

https://weather.us/model-charts/german/washington/acc-total-precipitation/20221023-0000z.html

 

Seriously, the ICON?

What about the Mongolian and Zimbabwean models? Will you wait for those to come on board as well?

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Nakia Creek Fire seems to be putting out more smoke-- worth keeping an eye on as winds strengthen into the overnight hours.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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70s here. Unreal outside.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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12z GFS says winter begins here next weekend. Going to be an extremely abrupt change!

Screen Shot 2022-10-15 at 2.01.09 PM.png

 

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 79"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 30"

Coldest daily high: -21ºF

Coldest daily low: -40ºF

Number of subzero days: 14

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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40 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seriously, the ICON?

What about the Mongolian and Zimbabwean models? Will you wait for those to come on board as well?

I’m dead serious. Outside of the forecast timeframe for mesoscale models, the ICON is the best for QPF. It only goes out a week though. 

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The EPS control shows some continental cold after day 10.  Would basically be frigid in the winter.  As it is the above normal heights bridging across the Arctic shown on the ensemble means is quite intriguing.

1666893600-60lmDRKJE5w.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • Longtimer
9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

90 at SLE! At 2pm on October 15th.

89 at Aurora, 88 at Tillamook, 87 at Vancouver, 86 at PDX.

Insane 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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