October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[NWbyNW]

NOAA forecast discussion is quite depressing.  The writer is so done with this weather.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

[NWbyNW]

And lastly and an exceedingly depressing discussion of the smoke and winds this weekend from KOMO and what the smoke means for the Mariners and Seahawks... and us.

Good for Anchorage though...

[NWbyNW]

Predicted ground level smoke by 4AM...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

33 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Predicted ground level smoke by 4AM...

Is there a map of that for Oregon?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS was quite wet!

[Gradient Keeper]

Pattern change begins just after Day 6

[Sonny Summers]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z EPS was quite wet!

Fire extinguisher pattern

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

Fire extinguisher pattern

This would really end the fire season no more smoky junk.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Something is going to have to give sooner or later… 

 

king Euro  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Fuckk this shitt.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Fuckk this shitt.

How does it look against past runs?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How does it look against past runs?

Worse. No rain for the Willamette Valley for the entire believable range. It doesn't show a meaningful pattern change in the first 10 days. A small trough clips Washington but it's further north now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[The Blob]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ensemble is still ok. I'm still inclined to believe the operational at this point tho.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Precip totals for the GFS op run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm headed to bed. Hopefully the night shift becomes more of a party as we get into November.

[MV_snow]

Lots of pessimism on this board despite the best model available and its ensembles being LOCKED IN! The rest is usually just noise when that happens.

[Gradient Keeper]

Some friendly advice. Right now the GFS op beyond Day 6 is and has been an outlier. Wait for the ensembles to see how they look Day 7+.

 

6z GEFS agrees on the timing of the pattern change beginning after Day 6, but it's not as chilly as the EURO, nor not quite as wet. You can see the operational run continues to be a massive outlier beyond Day 7 with the continued wacky ridge scenario.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Ensembles similar with the EPS, GEFS showing pattern change beginning just after Day 6. The Canadian is really wet with near average temperatures.

[snow_wizard]

The 6z GFS is awful.  I'm thinking we get a compromise between the GFS and ECMWF solutions.  The ECMWF has a bias of wanting to shove cut off lows to far west in cases like this which means it will probably move toward the GFS solutions as the time frame narrows.  Not what I was hoping for.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

WASHINGTON

We're back to air quality as bad as just a few days ago.  Merely a day of respite and back to this crud.  Back to being the least healthy air in the country.  2022 has seemed to be the worst year for poor air quality longevity in Washington history (for as long as we have records for), but not the worst for PM2.5 accumulation.  This still has been one of the tamest wildfire seasons in decades.  It's just the closeness to the Bolt Creek Fire or the Larch Mountain Fire near Camas that makes this season so extreme for Western Washington.  Fires like this don't happen on our side of the mountains and we don't go into October with no signs of rain.  Pretty much minimal rain since June. The majority of the Puget Sound is under an unhealthy air quality alert.  

We're at the worst stage we've seen in awhile. Tacoma is at 155 AQI, Seattle is at 154 AQI, Everett is at 70 AQI, and Olympia is at 116 AQI. Monroe, closer to the Bolt Creek Fire, is at 160 AQI. These conditions will worsen overnight.

Bolt Creek Fire has re-shut down Highway 2 as well. 

OREGON

For Oregon, you can expect conditions to worsen, especially around Eugene and Roseburg.  You can expect unhealthy conditions soon. Portland's conditions are moderate right now but will degrade.  

OUTLOOK

Also attached below are future smoke models for Washington and Oregon looking out roughly two days.  Conditions will get worse with no sign of improvement.

Pretty awful. We need those westerlies and RAIN! Thanks for the post, analysis, and time you spent putting into this.

12z GFS in 2 hours 19 minutes

[RentonHill]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 6z GFS is awful.  I'm thinking we get a compromise between the GFS and ECMWF solutions.  The ECMWF has a bias of wanting to shove cut off lows to far west in cases like this which means it will probably move toward the GFS solutions as the time frame narrows.  Not what I was hoping for.

I think the same. Euro probably won’t cave in one run but over several runs slowly extend timeline out, and one of the next four runs of the GFS it will kick up the timing a bit but not all the way

[T-Town]

5 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

This would really end the fire season no more smoky junk.

If your junk is smoking that’s probably something to get checked out. 

[Meatyorologist]

GFS operational continues to be an outlier in its own ensemble, other models, and their ensembles too. Far ridgier than any other ooutlook by a long shot.

I think it's any meteorologist's safe bet that we'll cool off considerably late next week into next weekend with an increasing chance at our first substantial rainfall of the season.

[RentonHill]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

GFS operational continues to be an outlier in its own ensemble, other models, and their ensembles too. Far ridgier than any other ooutlook by a long shot.

I think it's any meteorologist's safe bet that we'll cool off considerably late next week into next weekend with an increasing chance at our first substantial rainfall of the season.

No!! we need to know if its going to be 42 or 45 overnight and whether the rain is coming thursday morning or friday night!!

[Meatyorologist]

46F my place this morning. Around 50F at KSEA

[Chewbacca Defense]

5 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Pattern change begins just after Day 6

This looks like it should be going good by the 21st which is my wife's 20th anniversary of her 30th birthday.  Though she was born in Montana, she has spent a vast majority of her life in the PNW and is a true web-foot.  She loooooves the rain.  I can't think of a better birthday present for her!

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z EPS was quite wet!

Clown range again. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low of 39 in Nowata, Oklahoma this morning. Red flag warning today.

[MossMan]

From my relatives in Minnesota this morning. I blurred out the snowman’s face since I did not get approval from the said snowman to post the pic. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Pretty awful. We need those westerlies and RAIN! Thanks for the post, analysis, and time you spent putting into this.

12z GFS in 2 hours 19 minutes

Climate change makes blocking patterns more likely. 

[Cloud]

The fog is back this morning accompanying surface level smoke and haze. This may help put a cap on the high depending on how fast the fog clear out. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

From my relatives in Minnesota this morning. I blurred out the snowman’s face since I did not get approval from the said snowman to post the pic. 

I was just going to post about this... here is a live view from where my in-laws live in the Twin Cities.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

From my relatives in Minnesota this morning. I blurred out the snowman’s face since I did not get approval from the said snowman to post the pic. 

Snowman should be wearing a mask

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Low of 39 in Nowata, Oklahoma this morning. Red flag warning today.

Looks really dry. Nowata indeed!

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The fog is back this morning accompanying surface level smoke and haze. This may help put a cap on the high depending on how fast the fog clear out. 

Fog appears to be very localized.   Don't think it will have much of an impact on temps.

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Climate change makes blocking ridges centered over the PNW more likely. 

 

[T-Town]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks really dry. Nowata indeed!

I see what you did there…