October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Anti Marine Layer]

26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks really dry. Nowata indeed!

Lotsawata here. It's drizzly and we have a leaky fridge.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nowata has the state record low for Oklahoma. -30 in February 2011.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

[MossMan]

It’s coming.

[RentonHill]

wow Goofus might cave. 

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

anyone out there???

 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

anyone out there???

 

We’ll see if the trough slides in or if the ridge rebuilds east

[RentonHill]

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

anyone out there???

 

Goofus is on a sinking island. The last week of October is gonna be very fall like. Cool and wet. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Not going to get there unless the RRR retrogrades further. The Euro drops the trough out of the north. The GFS is having none of it.

[Doinko]

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Not going to get there unless the RRR retrogrades further. The Euro drops the trough out of the north. The GFS is having none of it.

A glancing blow. Then sure death. Sucks

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Seasonal temps and dry as a bone. The GEM looks horrible.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Seasonal temps and dry as a bone. The GEM looks horrible.

At least it's farther west on this run

[Doinko]

[Doinko]

12z GFS at HR 228:

00z Euro at HR 240:

 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

8 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

12z GFS at HR 228:

00z Euro at HR 240:

 

12z GEM at 240

[snow_wizard]

Nice cold trough on the 12z GFS.  Pretty dry, but it looks chilly.

[Cloud]

Is the goofus caving? 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice cold trough on the 12z GFS.  Pretty dry, but it looks chilly.

I would rather see rain and pineapples.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

46F my place this morning. Around 50F at KSEA

Dropped to 42 here.  At least the mins have dropped to normal here the last few days.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I would rather see rain and pineapples.

I'll take either.  I have figured we would come out of this with either excessive rain or a cold, but still fairly dry regime.  FWIW I think if November is cold and dry we will see a very wet December.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Is the goofus caving? 

To some extent.  It's showing pretty cool weather for week two.  Frost in a number of locations.

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Is the goofus caving? 

i think the important thing is that looks different than its last 8 runs or whatever. lol

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

To some extent.  It's showing pretty cool weather for week two.  Frost in a number of locations.

Baby steps!! As long as it starts to swing that way, I'm happy. Haven't gotten the chance to look at the model yet. 

[RentonHill]

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

i think the important thing is that looks different than its last 8 runs or whatever. lol

Oh yeah! All i need to do was look at the 240 frame and can tell it's different. Cave cave cave!

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

12 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Is the goofus caving? 

Not even close. A few days of seasonal temps and then back to endless ridging. 

[RentonHill]

GEFS doing better with the blocking

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Climate change makes blocking patterns more likely. 

There has been speculation the approaching solar grand minimum would make things blockier.  We have had two consecutive solar cycles that were lowest since the Dalton Minimum so that might be coming home to roost.  In general a blockier regime means more extreme fluctuation from one year to the next or even one season to the next.  Much greater potential for exciting outcomes in the NW, but of course it can get painfully boring if a ridge is sitting right over you for months on end.

[NWbyNW]

8 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Is there a map of that for Oregon?

Yes, here are the latest surface smoke models at their worst extent within the next 24hrs.  Mainly Eugene gets the worst of it on the western half of the state.  Portland will see degrading air though throughout the day. 

 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Not even close. A few days of seasonal temps and then back to endless ridging. 

Clown range is even more disturbing...  Nov is starting to come into view... not good. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEFS doing better with the blocking

Yep. Trough can’t break through the 5,000 mile long ridge. Beginning of the end folks. Best case, it’s delayed. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Not even close. A few days of seasonal temps and then back to endless ridging. 

It has changed quite a bit just before day 10.

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS has blinked.  It shows the trough digging further east and sharper.  At least it takes us into a cooler regime.

[snow_wizard]

850mb temp change from 6z.  Less wet, but more cool.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Yes, here are the latest surface smoke models at their worst extent within the next 24hrs.  Mainly Eugene gets the worst of it on the western half of the state.  Portland will see degrading air though throughout the day. 

 

I have a feeling my daughters soccer game tomorrow will be cancelled. We are in the red! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I didn’t think the 12z was as awful as previous runs.

[Doinko]

WRF-GFS shows east winds ~15mph with gusts 25-30mph on Saturday here