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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


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Programming alert... on tonight's new episode of Family Guy the family travels to Bend, OR to visit the last Blockbuster Video store. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

Since the weather looks to be kind of boring for the first half of the month at least, I was thinking about other Octobers and was wondering, why are October windstorms more common than April ones? There was the April 2017 event but that was unusual I think while October has had many more windstorms.

With wavelengths rapidly increasing it’s more likely to encounter strong baroclinic setups as we get further into October. That coupled with potential typhoon remnants makes it a good breeding ground.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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  • Longtimer

October 2006 was super dry and then it rained over 2’ here in November. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Sitting out on the porch, my wife keeps remarking about how pleasant it is. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Programming alert... on tonight's new episode of Family Guy the family travels to Bend, OR to visit the last Blockbuster Video store. 

All about Blockbuster with only incidental mention of Bend... not even any Oregon or PNW digs.     There was some social commentary on the people between "Washington and Washington".

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well...this run has Nevada getting way more rain than WA.  Pretty insane.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

At this rate I won't be getting my rain fix until I'm in SE Asia toward the end of this month. At least my odds for rain look pretty good there. With 164" of rain per year, Kuching makes our totals look measly in comparison.

A lot of that could be monsoons, which might be ending soon if they haven't already.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...this run has Nevada getting way more rain than WA.  Pretty insane.

And there’s a good chance this run is still too progressive with the pattern. I think this pattern will end with the ridge retrograding out into the GOA upon the next -EAMT/-dAAMt, should it be sufficient.

Hard to say when that is, but it’s probably a ways off.

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

A lot of that could be monsoons, which might be ending soon if they haven't already.

Kuching is deep in the ITCZ, they have a tropical rainforest rather than seasonal monsoon climate with heavy rain every month of the year. They are impacted by the NE monsoon though and that really kicks off in Nov - Mar. Intense afternoon thunderstorms are basically a guarantee there. I'm also visiting Thailand before heading back and they're more impacted by the SW monsoon and the NE monsoon usually rips through quickly in October, so will probably be drier by then. Apparently much of SE Asia has had an intense monsoon season this year.

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FWIW the extended GEFS had the pattern breaking down at the very end of this month on the mean and around the 20th on the control model.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of that could be monsoons, which might be ending soon if they haven't already.

Just looked it up.  Their wet season is just starting... runs October-April.    Summer is their dry season and they still average 8+ inches in those months.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

And there’s a good chance this run is still too progressive with the pattern. I think this pattern will end with the ridge retrograding out into the GOA upon the next -EAMT/-dAAMt, should it be sufficient.

Hard to say when that is, but it’s probably a ways off.

Yeah...some runs have hinted at retrogression.  As you say that could take weeks.  Probably a cold end if it happens that way.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just looked it up.  Their wet season is just starting... runs October-April.    Summer is their dry season and they still average 8+ inches in those months.

Sounds like he'll see some rain then.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Seattle/Portland rain total for October will be 1in

-135 for under 

+500 for over 

Eh, one errant AR and you could get like 1.5" in a day despite nothing else all month... And would be pretty easy to get, even (especially) in this ridgy regime. Risky bet on the under!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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33 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Eh, one errant AR and you could get like 1.5" in a day despite nothing else all month... And would be pretty easy to get, even (especially) in this ridgy regime. Risky bet on the under!

Happened in January and February this year. Both had very long dry stretches and would have been very dry months if not for one well-placed AR.

Farther south in northern CA foothill and upslope areas that's kinda how winter precip works by default. Sometimes you get 2-3 weeks with nothing and then an AR comes and dumps 5" in two days.

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It turns out 1942 is the best match to the observed weather in a La Nina year at least back to 1895.  I calculated that using hot summer, driest Jul - Oct totals on record, in a La Nina base state.  1974 is the second best match, but didn't have the hot summer.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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  • Longtimer
20 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

We are going to pay dearly for this stretch of Indian Summer weather that look to persists into at least mid-October. One day closer to an arctic blast!

12z GFS in 9 hours 24 minutes

And one day further from the last one.☹️

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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21 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF - Day 7-10 almost a nice backdoor cool shot as a clipper system dives through Montana. Snowy for Montana and Wyoming! Here we go!

floop-ecmwf_full-2022100300.500h_anom.na.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2022100300.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_nw.gif

sn10_acc.us_nw.pngsfct.us_nw.png

Kind of lends some support to Phils retrogression theory.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I'm betting it will be more than 2 weeks before any meaningful rain arrives.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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00z EPS is literally a carbon copy of 1988.

FWIW that was also a strong niña/+QBO with warm extratropics. Interesting.

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  • Longtimer

Looked at the observed weather for the Portland area July-Sept of 1988 and 1942. Would give anything to have had that kind of climatologically normal pleasantness compared to the months of torrid hell we’ve just endured. 2022 is in its own league.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer

A watched pot never boils. The worm will turn. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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If the forecast plays out (it will), we will average around 66 degrees for the first half of October. That's warmer than the average June or September. October averages 55.6.

In 3 days, the average high will be 69 and the average low will be 49. We haven't had a high that low since June 19th or a low that low since May 22nd. Our record streaks of 70+ and 50+ could go on another two weeks. 

 

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

If the forecast plays out (it will), we will average around 66 degrees for the first half of October. That's warmer than the average June or September. October averages 55.6.

In 3 days, the average high will be 69 and the average low will be 49. We haven't had a high that low since June 19th or a low that low since May 22nd. Our record streaks of 70+ and 50+ could go on another two weeks. 

 

I’m wondering if we end up with the most anomalously warm month on record. I certainly think it’s on the table. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

This guy beat me into the office this morning. We also had ice fog along the Truckee River which was neat to see. 

SmartSelect_20221003_071642_Gallery.jpg

Tahoe seems like such an awesome place to live.

I have visited countless times.

I am seriously considering a south shore cabin purchase so I can work from home there every winter.

 

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20 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Tahoe seems like such an awesome place to live.

I have visited countless times.

I am seriously considering a south shore cabin purchase so I can work from home there every winter.

 

If you want an insane amount of snow look out towards Meyers in the North/South upper Truckee neighborhoods. If you want to walk to the water from your house look in the Al Tahoe neighborhood where I live. Prices are starting to come down finally but inventory is really low. Hopefully it will improve by next year. The crowds can get kind of insane but it is an amazing place to live. 

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9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

as mentioned a couple days ago, bring on an 88-89 redux

 

66" of snow in Spokane on the season highlighted by a -4/-11 on 2/2/89

I am pretty sure it took a freak SSW event for that Feb blast to happen. 

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  • Meatyorologist changed the title to October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza
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