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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


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  • Longtimer

Digging into the CFS a bit more. It gives us a very wet and very warm December. Dry and near average January, and then a February 2019 redux. 

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_4.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
Just now, Doiinko said:


CFS also agrees on a cold January!!cfs-mon_01_T850a_us_3.png

That's the 850mb anomaly. The 2m temp anomaly is closer to average. 
cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_3.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
12 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

The GFS changed a lot and doesn't have it anymore from what I can tell. I'm hoping we don't get another east wind event

Fire danger during downslope events into October is relatively minimal as RH recoveries are now pretty massive. Plus the events starting about now have a considerable cooling component.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Problem with these seasonal models is they generally reflect low pass coupling and cannot see intraseasonal events which perturb that.

So they’ll end up with the canonical ENSO response 90% of the time. Don’t think they will prove very useful more than 2 months in advance. At best.

Any kind of SSW/significant MJO renders the solutions useless. Even just a sharp dAAMt/wavebreak can change the picture.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Problem with these seasonal models is they generally reflect low pass coupling and cannot see intraseasonal events which perturb that.

So they’ll end up with the canonical ENSO response 90% of the time. Don’t think they will prove very useful more than 2 months in advance. At best.

Any kind of SSW/significant MJO renders the solutions useless. Even just a sharp dAAMt/wavebreak can change the picture.

Has the CFS ever been wrong before?   

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Has the CFS ever been wrong before?   

 

Which reminds me. It is time to start keeping an eye on the extended CFS. 

prateptype_cat.na.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Has the CFS ever been wrong before?   

 

It was forecasting a cool/wet September in the PNW in late August, so…yeah maybe. :lol: 

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The August 1st run of the CANSIPS was also projecting a very wet August and September in the PNW.

Huge yikes.

C3626C00-4335-4380-9B2A-C4B5A905994C.pngF7AE8716-A500-4AF3-8754-0DD7885A4E84.png

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Phil said:

This was the September 1st run of the CANSIPS.

LMAO.

0D81394A-DB58-4EFA-813F-DEF4622EC897.png

Yeah, it is still predicting a wet October in some parts of the PNW, though it has latched onto the idea of a torch. And of course a couple of big storms the last few days of the month could change the dynamic. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It’s 48.4°F here at 345pm on 10/3. That would be pretty typical in January. By far the coldest afternoon temp I’ve ever recorded this yearly in the season.

For contrast, in 2019 it was 98°F here on 10/2.

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS is still wall-to-wall warmth...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1664798400-1664798400-1666094400-10.gif

This pattern is killing the cold air source for 80% of the CONUS.

Need to either retrograde the western ridge into the GOA, or build a ridge into NE-Canada/Greenland. I think the former is more likely, but am hoping for the latter. 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

This pattern is killing the cold air source for 80% of the CONUS.

Need to either retrograde the western ridge into the GOA, or build a ridge into NE-Canada/Greenland. I think the former is more likely, but am hoping for the latter. 

Who cares about cold? We just need 1/2'' of freakin' widespread rain before every last plant, shrub, and tree in the PNW dies.

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Who cares about cold? We just need 1/2'' of freakin' widespread rain before every last plant, shrub, and tree in the PNW dies.

Ultimately I think what's killing the vegetation is the heat... 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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EPS still adding AAM through the next 2 weeks.

If/when high AAM begins decreasing again is when I’d watch for a retrogression. A faster reversal/-dAAMt would be more likely to pull it off.

3DB8D2E1-08C2-48A3-AE06-5947166DEAB1.png

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October is the one month during the rainy season where it’s possible to receive a months worth of rain in 1 day.  Too soon to write this one off.  Wouldn’t be too surprised to see the flood gates open before Halloween. 

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4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

October is the one month during the rainy season where it’s possible to receive a months worth of rain in 1 day.  Too soon to write this one off.  Wouldn’t be too surprised to see the flood gates open before Halloween. 

With a bone-dry summer and little or no prospect of significant moisture in the first two weeks of this month, mushroom season is already a loss this year.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Compared to this year, that is a decidedly cool start to October.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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  • Longtimer
Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Compared to this year, that is a decidedly cool start to October.

Well yeah, there really is no comparison to this run of heat. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

EPS still adding AAM through the next 2 weeks.

If/when high AAM begins decreasing again is when I’d watch for a retrogression. A faster reversal/-dAAMt would be more likely to pull it off.

3DB8D2E1-08C2-48A3-AE06-5947166DEAB1.png

Looks like it actually starts decreasing right at the end of the run.

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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30 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

With a bone-dry summer and little or no prospect of significant moisture in the first two weeks of this month, mushroom season is already a loss this year.

I don’t eat wild mushrooms so I’m okay with it. 

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EPS weeklies still pushing back any transition to a wetter pattern.

In reality it could be the jet doesn’t break through at all, and instead the ridge retrogrades offshore.

EPS for 10/24: Current run vs previous run.

220F42ED-3F8E-4985-A432-D7B5B886672E.gif

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10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I don’t eat wild mushrooms so I’m okay with it. 

Me too.    Could not care less about forest fungus.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Me too.    Could not care less about forest fungus.  

I don’t get the mushroom (of any type) thing…I find them and olives completely disgusting. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I don’t get the mushroom (of any type) thing…I find them and olives completely disgusting. 

Only mushroom I go for are Cyans 

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Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I don’t get the mushroom (of any type) thing…I find them and olives completely disgusting. 

How can anyone not like black olives and portabella mushrooms?  Especially on a pizza. 76 degrees in smoke

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When will the models stop saying there is going to be rain a week out and it never comes?  The smoke has been near constant for two weeks now here in the North Sound.  Can we please get some rain?  Gosh... 

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Looks like the JAS ONI value came in at -0.9. Highest JAS value since 2010.

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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  • Longtimer
17 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

How can anyone not like black olives and portabella mushrooms?  Especially on a pizza. 76 degrees in smoke

Nope nope nope and nope! 🤢🤮

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

How did the ukmo do last year in comparison?

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19 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

When will the models stop saying there is going to be rain a week out and it never comes?  The smoke has been near constant for two weeks now here in the North Sound.  Can we please get some rain?  Gosh... 

The good news is that the models aren't showing any rain for at least two weeks so they can't let you down.

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's the 850mb anomaly. The 2m temp anomaly is closer to average. 
cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_3.png

At that range I would use the 850s.  If it's dry with below normal 850s that would certainly be cold at the surface.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Looks like a shot at some cool continental air getting in here early next week.  The problem with the pattern the ECMWF shows is it would probably be fire weather.  The 18z GFS has moved toward the dry cold front solution the ECMWF shows.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Meanwhile another near 80 day here after a low in the upper 40s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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  • Meatyorologist changed the title to October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza
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