snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 The models are just a train wreck today. Incredible actually. My money is on a reckoning later on. We'll see. No way this regime will hold through the entire cold season with a significant Nina in play. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: WTF? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 18z gonna be a banger, calling it now 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This year had far less smoke here than the past two. And a lot of new green shoots coming up after the rain this week. The worm will turn. This has gotten to the point where it has to lead to something significant. May be nothing more than exceptional rain, but something is coming. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Two sides of the same irrational coin You might need to do some self reflection as well. I'm not sure most people would say you are the picture of rational right now. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: This has gotten to the point where it has to lead to something significant. May be nothing more than exceptional rain, but something is coming. ...drought? 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 86 at PDX already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 18z gonna be a banger, calling it now 150 hours in, and the only banging going on is the kind that involves both my head and the wall to my left. 4 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 I love looking at the temp graphs for years. Amazing how different some are. I would have assumed there would be much more normality/consistency on a big picture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 150 hours in, and the only banging going on is the kind that involves both my head and the wall to my left. At least it looks like monsoon season is finally kicking in though!! 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 150 hours in, and the only banging going on is the kind that involves both my head and the wall to my left. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 What amazes me is that what is being forecast is essentially a perma-heatwave, with high temps running 7-15F above average for days and days on end. Even with the heatwaves earlier this summer, the patterns themselves broke down within a week. There is no pattern breakdown upcoming... Every day looks to hit summertime levels into the indefinite future. Absolutely confounding, bizarre predictions for October. A complete displacement from our actual climate... A figurative jaunt 800 miles to the south for much of the region. For comparison, in July, this would mean highs above 90F for two plus weeks straight at KSEA. Only thing preventing a similar outcome now is the grace of lowering sun angles. The only even closely relevant precedent would be October 1991... And even then, there was a relatively even split between October climo and strong ridging, frequently trading between highs in the 70s and 60s. What is being forecast is 70F+ weather for....eternity? 4 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Oh baby! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Kayla said: At least it looks like monsoon season is finally kicking in though!! Given the belated start, it's almost as if the monsoon were shifted forward in time by a month! Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 75 here…one more degree and that’s the warmest I’ve recorded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 I mean what the hell even is this garbage?? A ridge extending from Russia to Ontario. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Had to log on here just to check if the week's forecast is actually in the 70's/sunny or if I was just seeing things. I planted peppers a bit late this year so I guess "Octugust" can help with that Quote 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: I mean what the hell even is this garbage?? A ridge extending from Russia to Ontario. I usually get mocked for mentioning Tonga... but it just feels like everything has been out of whack since about March. And there is no end in sight. And Tonga sure seems like a smoking gun. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 79 here. 86 in twisp! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I usually get mocked for mentioning Tonga... but it just feels like everything has been out of whack since about March. And there is no end in sight. And Tonga sure seems like a smoking gun. Or, there could be no rhyme or reason at all and weather just happens? Sometimes you get heads, sometimes you get tails. Sometimes you get heads 3 times in a row. You could get heads 10 times in a row even though the odds are very much stacked against you. That feels like what we’re experiencing. Last June felt like heads 20 times in a row, although I know those odds are astronomically low. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Or, there could be no rhyme or reason at all and weather just happens? Sometimes you get heads, sometimes you get tails. Sometimes you get heads 3 times in a row. You could get heads 10 times in a row even though the odds are very much stacked against you. That feels like what we’re experiencing. Last June felt like heads 20 times in a row, although I know those odds are astronomically low. Sure... could be that too. I have no idea. But it has just seemed really strange even in context of our warming climate. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Sure... could be that too. I have no idea. But it has just seemed really strange even in context of our warming climate. Well At least we know for sure that our climate isn’t warming faster than history would suggest 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: What amazes me is that what is being forecast is essentially a perma-heatwave, with high temps running 7-15F above average for days and days on end. Even with the heatwaves earlier this summer, the patterns themselves broke down within a week. There is no pattern breakdown upcoming... Every day looks to hit summertime levels into the indefinite future. Absolutely confounding, bizarre predictions for October. A complete displacement from our actual climate... A figurative jaunt 800 miles to the south for much of the region. For comparison, in July, this would mean highs above 90F for two plus weeks straight at KSEA. Only thing preventing a similar outcome now is the grace of lowering sun angles. The only even closely relevant precedent would be October 1991... And even then, there was a relatively even split between October climo and strong ridging, frequently trading between highs in the 70s and 60s. What is being forecast is 70F+ weather for....eternity? I still remember 1991. Freakishly dry late summer and well into the autumn. Came out of that with a major cold wave. I think there was a decent wind event before the cold as well. This thing now is on a scale never seen before though, given what has already happened. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Or, there could be no rhyme or reason at all and weather just happens? Sometimes you get heads, sometimes you get tails. Sometimes you get heads 3 times in a row. You could get heads 10 times in a row even though the odds are very much stacked against you. That feels like what we’re experiencing. Last June felt like heads 20 times in a row, although I know those odds are astronomically low. I don't buy it. The weather gets into certain regimes that produce unusual outcomes for years at a time. As I've mentioned so many times the 1930s were psychotic. Something caused that unusual period to happen. Upon reflection I think Tonga could have something to do with this though. Even though none of the stratospheric temp anoms have gotten into the northern hem there could be some kind of a chain reaction that has been set off. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Phil said: There are EPS members with 21-22°C 850mb temps over PDX on October 16th. That seems pretty outrageous. Wow. I wonder if it'll be like 1987 where we saw the rains only arrive in late October 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 75/52 today…10/6/14 still the warmest October day for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 High of 87.6, breaks my all time October high by 3 degrees... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 88 at PDX currently and the max for the day, no 90 probably. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Tonga lol 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 The nearest weather station to me is reporting 91! Thought it might be slightly overexposed from what I've noticed this summer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 77 for a high today after a 46 for a low. I think we may need a major shakeup like a monster typhoon to knock this pattern around a bit. It's very pleasant but I would prefer cold and miserable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 3, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 The worst of the smoke has dissipated. Looking towards the mountains this morning, it seemed as if the smoke was worse at lower levels, so I took a chance and drove up to Mount Seymour. I was correct: above 750 m elevation, it was much clearer. Some photos follow. Mystery Lake. People were swimming it. Swimming in an alpine lake in October. Something just seems wrong about that. Wild blueberries (Vaccinium deliciosum). They live up to their Latin name. That is a black bear just left of centre. Not the best of photos, but I did not have a telephoto lens and did not want to get any closer. Mount Seymour First Peak, aka Pump Peak Looking towards Vancouver from First Peak. Still very hazy! Second Peak, aka Mt. Seymour proper. Looking NE from First Peak. Crowded at the top. 17 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Tonga is almost certainly going to factor into the equation here. This is an absurd amount of H2O lingering up in the stratosphere. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Tonga lol I don’t think it’s an lol. At all. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 I think it’s too early to know if its really had an effect at all yet. It probably did change the global circulation somehow but might just be too early to tell how. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Still 70 degrees at nearly 6pm. And there is a sprinkler running in my yard…In October…Well okay then… 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, Phil said: I don’t think it’s an lol. At all. Ok. I really don’t think these record warm months are due to Tonga. It’s kind of been a thing since 2014. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Minus a few glancing shots, there isn’t much cold to be found in North America on the 18z GEFS. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 25 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: The worst of the smoke has dissipated. Looking towards the mountains this morning, it seemed as if the smoke was worse at lower levels, so I took a chance and drove up to Mount Seymour. I was correct: above 750 m elevation, it was much clearer. Some photos follow. Mystery Lake. People were swimming it. Swimming in an alpine lake in October. Something just seems wrong about that. Wild blueberries (Vaccinium deliciosum). They live up to their Latin name. That is a black bear just left of centre. Not the best of photos, but I did not have a telephoto lens and did not want to get any closer. Mount Seymour First Peak, aka Pump Peak Looking towards Vancouver from First Peak. Still very hazy! Second Peak, aka Mt. Seymour proper. Looking NE from First Peak. Crowded at the top. Nice pics. we’ve had so many bears (different ones) around in twisp relative to last two years it’s crazy. Don’t know if the extended warmth is good or bad for them. Maybe good since early alpine freeze would force them down to find more food before hibernation? Idk 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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