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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 3:48 a.m. PDT Monday 3 October 2022.

Discussion.

A ridge of high pressure brought another warm autumn day. 

The following areas set a daily maximum temperature record on 
Sunday, October 2, 2022: 

Abbotsford Area (Abbotsford A) 
New record of 27.5 
Old record of 27.0 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Agassiz Area (Agassiz RCS) 
New record of 27.4 
Old record of 27.2 set in 1935 
Records in this area have been kept since 1889 

Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) 
New record of 28.6 
Old record of 27.0 set in 1987 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Clearwater Area (Clearwater Auto) 
New record of 26.1 
Old record of 25.0 set in 1923 
Records in this area have been kept since 1913 

Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) 
New record of 25.0 
Old record of 23.3 set in 2020 
Records in this area have been kept since 1974 

Comox Area (Comox A) 
New record of 22.7 
Old record of 22.2 set in 1952 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Courtenay Area (Comox A) 
New record of 22.7 
Old record of 22.2 set in 1952 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Esquimalt Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
New record of 25.3 
Old record of 25.0 set in 1935 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Gibsons Area (Sechelt Aut) 
New record of 23.7 
Old record of 22.2 set in 1962 
Records in this area have been kept since 1949 

Gonzales Point Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
New record of 25.3 
Old record of 25.0 set in 1935 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Kelowna Area (Kelowna UBCO) 
New record of 25.9 
Old record of 25.6 set in 1932 
Records in this area have been kept since 1899 

Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) 
New record of 28.1 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1963 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

Malahat Area (Malahat) 
New record of 24.8 
Old record of 22.0 set in 1987 
Records in this area have been kept since 1986 

Nakusp Area (Nakusp CS) 
New record of 21.4 
Old record of 20.9 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1966 

Pitt Meadows Area (Pitt Meadows CS) 
New record of 27.5 
Old record of 26.4 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Port Alberni Area (Port Alberni (AUT)) 
New record of 29.3 
Old record of 27.0 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Sechelt Area (Sechelt Aut) 
New record of 23.7 
Old record of 22.2 set in 2020 
Records in this area have been kept since 1956 

Squamish Area (Squamish Airport) 
New record of 27.0 
Old record of 26.0 set in 1988 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Tatlayoko Lake Area (Tatlayoko Lake RCS) 
New record of 26.6 
Old record of 26.0 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1930 

Vernon Area (Vernon Auto) 
New record of 25.3 
Old record of 24.4 set in 1904 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Victoria Area (Victoria Intl A) 
New record of 23.5 
Old record of 22.5 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Victoria Harbour Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
New record of 25.3 
Old record of 25.0 set in 1935 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Victoria (hartland) Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
New record of 25.3 
Old record of 25.0 set in 1935 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Victoria (university Of) Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
New record of 25.3 
Old record of 25.0 set in 1935 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

 

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Let's try not to be prisoners of the moment. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

I am pretty sure it took a freak SSW event for that Feb blast to happen. 

...And early outlooks advertise a weaker than normal SPV this winter!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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40 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

...And early outlooks advertise a weaker than normal SPV this winter!

That February blast looks amazing, major snowstorm almost everyone except for maybe Bellingham and Portland because of the wind and two highs in the teens. That March event also looks interesting, but seems a like a big gradient between snow totals in the Portland area. 1.5" at Beaverton while Battle Ground had a snow depth of 11" on the 3rd? Only 4" of snow that winter at Beaverton but still really amazing events.

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Guess things have an odd way of evening things out. 

Chilly June? Warm October. 
 

This month seems to be a lock for dry and warm. And we’re 3 days in! 

7624BB21-1C94-48F5-A964-B5B6481F3993.jpeg

8CE3E223-AE58-4CD7-928B-AF7BA6824B37.jpeg

Did you have a chilly June there?  The warmth late in the month easily bumped it above average here. 

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4 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:
I think the latter half of October abruptly turns wet and very active potential wind storms into November. Winter, 2-3 arctic intrusions or full-on blasts. Snow amounts unknown.
 
12z ECMWF in 4 hours 32 minutes

I think ridge retrogression and cool/dry is more likely. Might not happen until late in the month, though.

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8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Did you have a chilly June there?  The warmth late in the month easily bumped it above average here. 

We ended up with a  -0.9 departure for June at BFI. It would’ve been actually a lot cooler if it weren’t for the 25th-27th days. Those days saw +10F departures on 26th and 27th. 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

...And early outlooks advertise a weaker than normal SPV this winter!

And before the big SSW in late Jan 1989, the PV had been raging strong for months. That winter could have been MUCH colder overall if the vortex were weaker.

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20 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Pretty spooky here in T Town this morning. 

5D40D455-24BC-446B-A7C4-92C48AE8AAF0.jpeg

Eww. I have an irrational phobia of spiderwebs. I freak the eff out when I walk into one.

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think ridge retrogression and cool/dry is more likely. Might not happen until late in the month, though.

The way things are playing out I’m also getting the sense that we see a white Halloween with temps below zero to end the month out here. 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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16 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Most of Western Oregon was bumped up to above average as well.

I was going to say we didn't even have a chilly June. lol

We DID have a very wet one though... 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

This is a rational response to walking into a sticky spiders web. Don't know if you have the spider on you. 

I don’t care about the spider though. The web is what gets me. It’s a texture thing. Eww.

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29 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think ridge retrogression and cool/dry is more likely. Might not happen until late in the month, though.

I absolutely LOVE late October cold snaps. October 2002 was awesome. The rest of the winter, not so much. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We’ve been getting North Bend weather since the evening of 9/29. Going on 5 days without seeing the sun and my SAD has turned on. I don’t know how Tim does it.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDCA&hours=72

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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

What was 2002 like compared to 2019?

It was just the end of the month, it wasn't consistently cold like 2019. It hit 83 on the 16th, though there were big diurnal spreads during the month. Very dry too, with less than 1/2" of rain at SLE. SLE closed the month with a 52/22 and 56/20. Eugene got into the teens on the 31st. 

 https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=2002&month=10&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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54 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Guess things have an odd way of evening things out. 

Chilly June? Warm October. 
 

This month seems to be a lock for dry and warm. And we’re 3 days in! 

7624BB21-1C94-48F5-A964-B5B6481F3993.jpeg

8CE3E223-AE58-4CD7-928B-AF7BA6824B37.jpeg

The CPC forecasts that aren't obvious based on current operation/ensemble model output (like those that you posted) are worthless just like any other long-term forecast. Case in point...

 

off14_temp.gif

 

off14_prcp.gif

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

October 2019 was phenomenal. Some of my best pictures I’ve ever taken came from that month. Very cold month too think we pulled off a 46/30 day on 10/30. Some decent early season mountain snows and great colors. 

4324A89C-181E-4FDE-9B9A-9F50855CE108.jpeg

049BA8E7-7FF3-4CBC-9D9F-060D7E7CBAEC.jpeg

F1090308-D374-452F-B2FC-7D6C429A8DD3.jpeg

C20298F1-FDBF-40D8-968E-59138693D480.jpeg

70ECFB19-5E33-4F88-B66F-78A730778DB1.jpeg

Some fantastic shots there. 

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October 2002 was quite the backdoor blast. 

Redmond, OR pulled off a 31/3, 35/-3. 

Seneca, OR was 23/-11 on the 31st. They averaged 58/15 on the month. Pulling off a 75/11 on the 18th. The nice thing about that month was the continental influence and cold nights even with the warm days. Something we are not seeing this month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

The GFS changed a lot and doesn't have it anymore from what I can tell. I'm hoping we don't get another east wind event

I mean theoretically we could see some fire danger, and things are still dry so someone being stupid could start a brush fire in a populated area, but I am not particularly worried about fire danger this late into the season. Even with how dry things have been things up here are actually fairly damp now, and there is a decent amount of new grass growth, that and the much shorter days. A September 2020 like event is definitely off the table this late in the year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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So the CanSips is lookin' good. 

cansips_T2ma_us_4.png

cansips_T2ma_us_5.png

It is warm for December though. 

And after a very cool May, tell me if you have seen this before? 

cansips_T2maMean_month_us_10.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I mean theoretically we could see some fire danger, and things are still dry so someone being stupid could start a brush fire in a populated area, but I am not particularly worried about fire danger this late into the season. Even with how dry things have been things up here are actually fairly damp now, and there is a decent amount of new grass growth, that and the much shorter days. A September 2020 like event is definitely off the table this late in the year. 

Yeah I guess you're right the foothills in that area have had some rain which is where the highest fire danger is. I don't think the WA Cascade foothills have yet though and the Cedar Creek fire is still 120k acres. Thankfully it's 32% contained now

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Looks like we make up for our lack of rain now...
 

cansips_apcpna_multimonth_us_4.png

CFS agrees, but has a wetter December and drier March...

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_multimonth_us_2.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Digging into the CFS a bit more. It gives us a very wet and very warm December. Dry and near average January, and then a February 2019 redux. 

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_4.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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