Doinko Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looks like we make up for our lack of rain now... CFS agrees, but has a wetter December and drier March... CFS also agrees on a cold January/February!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Just now, Doiinko said: CFS also agrees on a cold January!! That's the 850mb anomaly. The 2m temp anomaly is closer to average. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 The Euro is definitely in the retrogression camp. Easy to see where that pattern would go, verbatim. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: That's the 850mb anomaly. The 2m temp anomaly is closer to average. Oh I didn't notice that. Well it still shows a cold February at least! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, Doiinko said: The GFS changed a lot and doesn't have it anymore from what I can tell. I'm hoping we don't get another east wind event Fire danger during downslope events into October is relatively minimal as RH recoveries are now pretty massive. Plus the events starting about now have a considerable cooling component. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Problem with these seasonal models is they generally reflect low pass coupling and cannot see intraseasonal events which perturb that. So they’ll end up with the canonical ENSO response 90% of the time. Don’t think they will prove very useful more than 2 months in advance. At best. Any kind of SSW/significant MJO renders the solutions useless. Even just a sharp dAAMt/wavebreak can change the picture. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: Problem with these seasonal models is they generally reflect low pass coupling and cannot see intraseasonal events which perturb that. So they’ll end up with the canonical ENSO response 90% of the time. Don’t think they will prove very useful more than 2 months in advance. At best. Any kind of SSW/significant MJO renders the solutions useless. Even just a sharp dAAMt/wavebreak can change the picture. Has the CFS ever been wrong before? 3 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Has the CFS ever been wrong before? Which reminds me. It is time to start keeping an eye on the extended CFS. 4 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Has the CFS ever been wrong before? It was forecasting a cool/wet September in the PNW in late August, so…yeah maybe. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 The August 1st run of the CANSIPS was also projecting a very wet August and September in the PNW. Huge yikes. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 This was the September 1st run of the CANSIPS. Good grief. 4 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: This was the September 1st run of the CANSIPS. LMAO. Yeah, it is still predicting a wet October in some parts of the PNW, though it has latched onto the idea of a torch. And of course a couple of big storms the last few days of the month could change the dynamic. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Look how the worm turned the last week of October 1994. https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1994&month=10&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 It’s 48.4°F here at 345pm on 10/3. That would be pretty typical in January. By far the coldest afternoon temp I’ve ever recorded this yearly in the season. For contrast, in 2019 it was 98°F here on 10/2. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 12Z EPS is still wall-to-wall warmth... 1 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 There must have been a wind shift. Smoke is pouring in here now and it smells quite acrid. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS is still wall-to-wall warmth... This pattern is killing the cold air source for 80% of the CONUS. Need to either retrograde the western ridge into the GOA, or build a ridge into NE-Canada/Greenland. I think the former is more likely, but am hoping for the latter. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: This pattern is killing the cold air source for 80% of the CONUS. Need to either retrograde the western ridge into the GOA, or build a ridge into NE-Canada/Greenland. I think the former is more likely, but am hoping for the latter. Who cares about cold? We just need 1/2'' of freakin' widespread rain before every last plant, shrub, and tree in the PNW dies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Who cares about cold? We just need 1/2'' of freakin' widespread rain before every last plant, shrub, and tree in the PNW dies. Ultimately I think what's killing the vegetation is the heat... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 EPS still adding AAM through the next 2 weeks. If/when high AAM begins decreasing again is when I’d watch for a retrogression. A faster reversal/-dAAMt would be more likely to pull it off. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 October is the one month during the rainy season where it’s possible to receive a months worth of rain in 1 day. Too soon to write this one off. Wouldn’t be too surprised to see the flood gates open before Halloween. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: October is the one month during the rainy season where it’s possible to receive a months worth of rain in 1 day. Too soon to write this one off. Wouldn’t be too surprised to see the flood gates open before Halloween. With a bone-dry summer and little or no prospect of significant moisture in the first two weeks of this month, mushroom season is already a loss this year. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Look how the worm turned the last week of October 1994. https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1994&month=10&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 Compared to this year, that is a decidedly cool start to October. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: Compared to this year, that is a decidedly cool start to October. Well yeah, there really is no comparison to this run of heat. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisEl Elyon Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Euro brings little to no snow for winter, UKMO better chances for more. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2022-2023-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-update-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ 2 1 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 22 minutes ago, Phil said: EPS still adding AAM through the next 2 weeks. If/when high AAM begins decreasing again is when I’d watch for a retrogression. A faster reversal/-dAAMt would be more likely to pull it off. Looks like it actually starts decreasing right at the end of the run. 4 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: With a bone-dry summer and little or no prospect of significant moisture in the first two weeks of this month, mushroom season is already a loss this year. As is green grass season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 30 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: With a bone-dry summer and little or no prospect of significant moisture in the first two weeks of this month, mushroom season is already a loss this year. I don’t eat wild mushrooms so I’m okay with it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 EPS weeklies still pushing back any transition to a wetter pattern. In reality it could be the jet doesn’t break through at all, and instead the ridge retrogrades offshore. EPS for 10/24: Current run vs previous run. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: I don’t eat wild mushrooms so I’m okay with it. Me too. Could not care less about forest fungus. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Me too. Could not care less about forest fungus. I don’t get the mushroom (of any type) thing…I find them and olives completely disgusting. 2 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisEl Elyon Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, MossMan said: I don’t get the mushroom (of any type) thing…I find them and olives completely disgusting. Only mushroom I go for are Cyans 2 1 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, MossMan said: I don’t get the mushroom (of any type) thing…I find them and olives completely disgusting. How can anyone not like black olives and portabella mushrooms? Especially on a pizza. 76 degrees in smoke 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 When will the models stop saying there is going to be rain a week out and it never comes? The smoke has been near constant for two weeks now here in the North Sound. Can we please get some rain? Gosh... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 3 hours ago, Phil said: Eww. I have an irrational phobia of spiderwebs. I freak the eff out when I walk into one. I’m not a big fan of spiders but I thought it made an interesting photo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Looks like the JAS ONI value came in at -0.9. Highest JAS value since 2010. 4 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, Winterdog said: How can anyone not like black olives and portabella mushrooms? Especially on a pizza. 76 degrees in smoke Nope nope nope and nope! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 hour ago, ChrisAmunRA said: Euro brings little to no snow for winter, UKMO better chances for more. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2022-2023-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-update-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ How did the ukmo do last year in comparison? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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