Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: When will the models stop saying there is going to be rain a week out and it never comes? The smoke has been near constant for two weeks now here in the North Sound. Can we please get some rain? Gosh... The good news is that the models aren't showing any rain for at least two weeks so they can't let you down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Wonder what the LRC has to say about our coming winter... or Richard for that matter. Is he still around? 00z GFS in 5 hours 21 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 18z?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: That's the 850mb anomaly. The 2m temp anomaly is closer to average. At that range I would use the 850s. If it's dry with below normal 850s that would certainly be cold at the surface. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Looks like a shot at some cool continental air getting in here early next week. The problem with the pattern the ECMWF shows is it would probably be fire weather. The 18z GFS has moved toward the dry cold front solution the ECMWF shows. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Meanwhile another near 80 day here after a low in the upper 40s. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Not coming... 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 hour ago, MossMan said: I don’t get the mushroom (of any type) thing…I find them and olives completely disgusting. There’s wild ones that are a lot more flavourful than the typical store-bought Agaricus bisporus “button” mushroom. Not going to mention my fave species because I've seen chanterelle hunters pass them up and leave them for me, not even knowing how choice they are. Was intimidated by the thought of eating wild mushrooms for many years (there are deadly ones out there, after all), until someone once observed on a hike that I was casually snacking on edible wild plants that were closely related to the deadly poisonous water hemlock. Rule number one in both plants and fungi is that if you’re not 100% sure what it is, don’t eat it. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like a shot at some cool continental air getting in here early next week. The problem with the pattern the ECMWF shows is it would probably be fire weather. The 18z GFS has moved toward the dry cold front solution the ECMWF shows. My money is on the fire weather. We get Santa Ana winds now, why not get them in October like California does? 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: There’s wild ones that are a lot more flavourful than the typical store-bought Agaricus bisporus “button” mushroom. Not going to mention my fave species because I've seen chanterelle hunters pass them up and leave them for me, not even knowing how choice they are. Was intimidated by the thought of eating wild mushrooms for many years (there are deadly ones out there, after all), until someone once observed on a hike that I was casually snacking on edible wild plants that were closely related to the deadly poisonous water hemlock. Rule number one in both plants and fungi is that if you’re not 100% sure what it is, don’t eat it. When I was much younger we used to pick mushrooms and make tea out of them. Tasted awful but then later… wow. 4 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Look how the worm turned the last week of October 1994. https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1994&month=10&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 It'll come. Really hard to say whether it will be a cold blast or a wet blast though. 1990 was kind of interesting in that it turned both wet and cold, although it turned in early October and that ship has obviously sailed this year. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: October is the one month during the rainy season where it’s possible to receive a months worth of rain in 1 day. Too soon to write this one off. Wouldn’t be too surprised to see the flood gates open before Halloween. 1942 did just that and it has to be called an analog at this point. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It'll come. Really hard to say whether it will be a cold blast or a wet blast though. 1990 was kind of interesting in that it turned both wet and cold, although it turned in early October and that ship has obviously sailed this year. Doesn’t have to be a blast at all. Could just slowly trickle into climo. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 76 here…that’s a first for October since I’ve been recording weather. Very hazy. Could not see the cascades or Olympics on the way home this afternoon and the AQI is 92. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Another 80 degree day for Portland metro 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seattle Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Looks like 77 or 78 at KSEA today. We'll know for sure shortly. This is very pleasant weather. Too bad we couldn't have had it back in August Quote 2022-23 Winter: 11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25" 12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace 12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7 1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0" Total: 6.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Newport still stuck in the 54 to 55 degrees range all day and all night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Never thought I’d say it, but I’m ready for another AR now (weather gods: please note the absence of any plural form in that observation). 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Looking very likely we could smash the record for +70 days in October. Already at 3 so far and the record is 5 in 2014. Starting to look like the real transit to fall weather could take longer than it did in 2012. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Flowers and vegetables picked today... just keeps going. So much more still coming. 8 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said: Doesn’t have to be a blast at all. Could just slowly trickle into climo. Not gonna happen IMO. We have yet to see climo this entire year. Records have been set all over the place. In the spring they were cold and wet records, now they are warmth and dry records. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 33 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Looking very likely we could smash the record for +70 days in October. Already at 3 so far and the record is 5 in 2014. Starting to look like the real transit to fall weather could take longer than it did in 2012. It might be worth a dig through all the records of the 20th century to find the top ones. It shouldn't be too hard since cold Octobers can be ruled out right off the bat. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Not gonna happen IMO. We have yet to see climo this entire year. Records have been set all over the place. In the spring they were cold and wet records, now they are warmth and dry records. Could happen. Can't just be record extremes forever. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 45 minutes ago, Phil said: And still no sympathetic warming of the troposphere. Intriguing. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Our hibiscus says let’s keep it going. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Could happen. Can't just be record extremes forever. I would expect a gradual (a period of years) relaxation toward normalcy not all at once. This might be even more crazy than the 1930s, but there are still some boxes that need to be checked to be able to say that for sure. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 2 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I would expect a gradual (a period of years) relaxation toward normalcy not all at once. This might be even more crazy than the 1930s, but there are still some boxes that need to be checked to be able to say that for sure. I am saying that one of the options for later this fall and winter is just normal rain with some dry days mixed and nothing too exciting. It does not always have to be crazy extreme. See 2002-03. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Current global temp maps show an enormous area of anomalous cold over Asia. Just need something to tap into it to get things going. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: All Ninos too. Things are really messed up right now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: And all of those years were moderate to strong El Niños...lol. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kayla said: And all of those years were moderate to strong El Niños...lol. 1942 is the only Nina year I know of where we almost pulled off a bone dry October. The last two days of the month had a soaker that prevented it. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: 1942 is the only Nina year I know of where we almost pulled off a bone dry October. The last two days of the month had a soaker that prevented it. I'm honestly beginning to wonder if we should start looking at Niños as potential wintertime analogs with the way the atmosphere is acting! 1 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kayla said: I'm honestly beginning to wonder if we should start looking at Niños as potential wintertime analogs with the way the atmosphere is acting! 68-69!!!!! 2 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 68-69!!!!! 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: 1968 had one. Check! 1 1 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Not gonna happen IMO. We have yet to see climo this entire year. Records have been set all over the place. In the spring they were cold and wet records, now they are warmth and dry records. So maybe you’re due for climo. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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