Money Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Discuss the storm for this upcoming week here. Models seem to be trending towards a pretty big storm that could provide some snow on the backside or some flooding rains in areas that have a lot of snowpack (latest GFS run showing 1.5+ qpf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 0z GGEM HR 96 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 I just looked at the GFS is showing a possible major flood event for IL. This would be a big problem. ...That could be a disaster! Street flooding, basement flooding, ice jams, you name it. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 ukie really bombs it out. 980 over msp at hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 euro 985 in s. wi at hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 00z Euro...still lots of time to digest this system. Floods over 1" rains in IA/IL/WI where it doesn't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hmm... This one is gonna be interesting. And has potential cause some bad problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 NAM with 6+ across W. WI. Seriously think this storm is another one to watch. Trended farther SE from it's 0z/06z runs plus with the 4-6+ more inches of snowcover that would only likely enhance the colder temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Will we see another SE shift in the storm track with this system like we did with the system we are currently getting by??? 12z NAM showing a shift in the heavy rains farther south now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Plus a deeper snowpack may also push the system farther south...that's something to keep in mind as systems occasionally like to ride to the south of the deepest snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah, and each run seems to have more cold sector qpf, should be a big mix of things here for now though. FZR/SN/RN etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 The 12z NAM certainly looked interesting for over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z GFS: 980 over GB at HR 84. 12z NAM 990 over W. MI at HR 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z NAM still has 1"+ over NE IL.Still coming in range. EURO was back with low 50s in NE IL at 96 hours. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 12Z GFS hour 78. Chicago gets quite a bit of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z GGEM HR 84: 991 over MKE. 39+ MM of precip in the Chicago area http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/233_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 btw 39 mm is about 1.53 QPF plus there was more at HR 72 and 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 GGEM suggest snow on Thursday with the SLP near MKE. Hopefully a southern shift can occur otherwise it will be a real mess in Iowa. Chicago appears to be getting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 This has a good possibility of being an IA/WI special as it did in Cycle 2...I was worried about that over here in Chicago over a week ago. Didn't expect soo much rain though with this system. We'll see how this system evolves are the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 man the gfs looks perfect for me...as well as nam. hope it holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 ukie has a 978 mb low in n. wi or so at hr 96. Hard to tell where it goes inbetween frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 this storm is looking stronger and stronger all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 One thing you will have to watch out for is the flash freeze. All models have temps dropping quickly to 20 degrees or less. For example. GFS has temps dropping from 31 here at hr 87 to 2 degrees by hr 96. 29 degree drop in 9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS has temps going from 44 at HR 81 to 24.7 at HR 90 with over 1.25 QPF of rain. 20 degree drop in 9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 GGEMI was hearing sandbags are being made up in northern IN already. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 GGEMI was hearing sandbags are being made up in northern IN already. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-30096300-1392660320.jpgHoly cow. Talk about an idle track. That'd be incredible if that panned out. I'm getting way jealous of you guys, we need this storm. I haven't seen anything but pea sized flakes fall for an extended period of time this year. This first frame would be a hell of a snowstorm with heavy rates if it panned out. EDIT: Not sure what the temps would look like, but GFS has a freezing rain event. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 This storm is going to have to go south to give us snow in Eastern Iowa. Chicago looks like rain for the entire event. Any promising signs of a southern shift?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 geos how does the qpf look on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Just a quick glance it looks like Euro went south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Brings the SLP right through the Dubuque area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Holy cow. Talk about an idle track. That'd be incredible if that panned out. I'm getting way jealous of you guys, we need this storm. I haven't seen anything but pea sized flakes fall for an extended period of time this year. This first frame would be a hell of a snowstorm with heavy rates if it panned out. EDIT: Not sure what the temps would look like, but GFS has a freezing rain event. Yuck. That's all rain for this area. Going to be a mess. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 geos how does the qpf look on the euro? For this storm, for Milwaukee it sends out: 0.32" of liquid. Much heavier down this way. Milwaukee gets to 50°. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 LSE buried on the 18z nam. 8-10+ Takes a 985 L pretty much right over head here like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 This storm needs to go south to give us snow, and not have Chicago flood. Any signs of a southern shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 18Z NAM...if it does rain, it wouldn't be that bad according to the NAM. Maybe .40-.50 qpf at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Pretty mixed bag on the 12z GFS ensembles. Several with a storm south of Chicago, others looking like the euro/nam etc http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_12z/f84.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 18z GFS is colder and a bit farther SE than 12z. Even brings a couple inches here (2-4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Quite a few wet ensembles over the snow pack areas. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 18Z NAM...if it does rain, it wouldn't be that bad according to the NAM. Maybe .40-.50 qpf at ORD. Right in the bulls eye! WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 GB AFD MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM TO AFFECTTHE REGION LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. YESTERDAY...THE MODELSWERE INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LOW MOVG THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADAAND THE S/W TROF LIFTING NE OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WOULDNOT EFFECTIVELY PHASE...WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND PCPN SPLITTINGNORTH AND SOUTH OF NE WI. THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE...ANDARE PHASING THE SYSTEMS ON THU/THU NGT...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SFCLOW THAT TRACKS FARTHER NW (THROUGH SE WI/LAKE MICHIGAN AREA) THANPREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO WHAT THE ECMWF WASFORECASTING SEVERAL DAYS AGO...SO THE TREND IS NOT TOO SURPRISING.BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS...ITS EXPECTED THAT SOME LIGHT PCPN WILLARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDS NGT/EARLY THU MORNING...WITH A WEAKWARM LAYER FROM 925-850 MB SUPPORTING A WINTRY MIX OVER ALL BUTTHE FAR NORTH...WHERE SNOW SHOULD PREVAIL. AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NEINTO THE REGION ON THU/THU EVG...IT WILL PULL WARMER AIR AND GULFMOISTURE INTO ABOUT THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA...LEADING TOMIXED RAIN/SNOW...OR POSSIBLY ALL RAIN. FARTHER NW...MODERATE TOHEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NW OF A LINE FROM ISW-IMT. THEHEAVY SNOW SHOULD LIFT OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL/FAR NE WI THURSDAYEVENING. OF COURSE...ALL OF THIS DEPENDS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OFTHE SYSTEM...WHICH COULD CHANGE DRASTICALLY WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELRUNS...GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY THAT MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE WITHPHASING SYSTEMS. MKE AFD FOR WED NT THROUGH THU NT...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW DEPICTED ONTHE MODELS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH ERN WI AS A POLARTROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.WIDESPREAD MIXED PCPN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE WED NT WITHMAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...SOME SNOW POSSIBLY IN THE NRNCWA. ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS MIXED PCPN AND ICE ACCUMWILL LINGER INTO THU AM. TEMPS WILL THEN BECOME WARM ENOUGH FORRAIN AT LEAST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH A MIX OF RAIN ANDSNOW IN THE WEST. ANY SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT UNLESSTHE LOW TRACKS FARTHER EAST. BRISK WINDS AND STRONG COLD ADVECTIONFOR THU NT INTO FRI AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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