2-19/2-21 Great Lakes Winter Storm...Heavy Rain/Flooding and Snow

[Money]

Ggem runs the low just east of Dubuque. Lots of moisture and cold air on the backside

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif

[Money]

1.29 QPF+ up near Marquette which would be all snow

[Iowawx]

GGEM color maps on WX Bell aren't up to the event now, but would the black and white maps suggest heavy snow here in East Central Iowa? 

[Money]

Not sure yet. Out to HR 57 here: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[WildWisconsinWeather]

No chance with the low track Iowawx, would likely pass west of you.

[East Dubzz]

Looks like it may be heavy snow around Waterloo, but getting closer to rain the further east you go. Hard to tell for sure on back and white maps. I know the 540 line is pretty far east, but that's not always the best indication. I'd say East Central Iowa is still a good amount of rain.

[Money]

HR 65 is snow in North-Central Iowa. Rain in eastern IA

[East Dubzz]

I take it the freezing line would be the dotted black line on the bottom right panel?

[Money]

DSM NE to Prarie Du Chen to just west of Green Bay looks to be the snow line

[Money]

DBQ is literally right on the RN/SN line

[East Dubzz]

Weird that DBQ is on the RN/SN line considering the SLP is actually a little further west than the GFS and NAM. Obviously gets a little more cold air wrapped in.

[Money]

Yeah, you start out as a RN/SN mix than switch over to plain old rain and then back to RN/SN as the low passes by. LSE looks to do well this run.

[East Dubzz]

I feel like I would get dry slotted as the low passes through and the only hope I would have at some real accumulation snow would be on the backside. My guess is that I start the storm off with maybe a little mix, not lasting long, then switch to all rain, get dry slotted, and then maybe catch a little light snow on the backside if I get lucky.

[Money]

I feel like I would get dry slotted as the low passes through and the only hope I would have at some real accumulation snow would be on the backside. My guess is that I start the storm off with maybe a little mix, not lasting long, then switch to all rain, get dry slotted, and then maybe catch a little light snow on the backside if I get lucky.

 

GGEM is the only model tonight thats this far west. 

[East Dubzz]

GGEM is the only model tonight thats this far west.

 

Still close enough on most models for me to see a dry slot. And none of them keep me cold enough for much snow.

[Iowawx]

20-40 mile shift SE is all I need. Just looked at the GGEM snowfall maps on WX bell and the snow line is from CR/DBQ and NW. 2-6 NW of that line. 

 

SLP would actually move right through Rockford, IL. Or just to the west of there. 

[East Dubzz]

20-40 mile shift SE is all I need. Just looked at the GGEM snowfall maps on WX bell and the snow line is from CR/DBQ and NW. 2-6 NW of that line.

 

SLP would actually move right through Rockford, IL. Or just to the west of there.

 

But you're banking on the GGEM being right with the cold. This is going to be a very close call. GFS and NAM not quite as generous pulling cold air in.

[Geos]

 

[Money]

0z UKIE HR 72: 981 over LSE lol

[East Dubzz]

Probably gonna have to wake up later and see what the Euro showed. Unfortunately, back to school tomorrow after a long weekend, so some sleep is needed. See ya all tomorrow, let's hope something exciting come from this storm, whether it be a thunderstorm or snow!

[Money]

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[th_snow]

Crazy how good consistent models have been with bigger scale storms like this. But, when a clipper comes through, it can't even figure out the track when the storm is actually hitting the area.

Might be because clippers come from Canada where the RAOB network is sparse.

[james1976]

blizzard watch for me?! wasnt expecing that. im right in the thick of it so i hope it dont change over the next 36-48 hours!

[East Dubzz]

Euro was pretty similar to the GEM in terms of track, took it just east of Dubuque.

[gosaints]

This could easily turn. Into a msp special

[Money]

12z NAM is very close to giving DBQ 6+.

 

MKE talking about issuing winter storm watches for FZR/Sleet if the track shifts farther east.

[gosaints]

Looks like a real wrapped up storm for once. Waa should be impressive

[East Dubzz]

12z NAM is very close to giving DBQ 6+.

 

MKE talking about issuing winter storm watches for FZR/Sleet if the track shifts farther east.

Still a good 90 miles away from the 6"

[Geos]

Looks like a central, ne Iowa snow storm right now.

 

 

On the flip side the NAM is soaking IL.

 

[East Dubzz]

Looks like I'm gonna be on the short end of the QPF from this storm. Get split by the heavy snow and heavy rain.

[james1976]

what was euro snow map from last night?

[East Dubzz]

what was euro snow map from last night?

Can't link, but I can tell you it had about .50" QPF of snow for you.

[Money]

12z GFS takes a 985 MB L over Milwaukee. East of 06z.

[gosaints]

Ggem west warm. Gfs now the eastern flank of guidance

[Tom]

Check out how similar the track is of this storm back in Cycle 2 and now the forecast for Thursday...

[Madtown]

looks like a rainy day to me

[Tom]

I could deal with 0.50-0.75" of rain...

[Tom]

12z Euro...looks like James is in the right spot for this one...

[DominicR]

GFS good hit E IA/WI. Heck take that 75 miles SE put us in the game. Big differences still 60hrs out.

[Tony]

Looks like a decent icing event looming