2-19/2-21 Great Lakes Winter Storm...Heavy Rain/Flooding and Snow

[Money]

ARW

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_eus_033_precip_p03.gif

 

NMM

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_eus_030_precip_p03.gif

 

GFS at the same time has a 992 L in IA

[East Dubzz]

So weird, the models were so consistent up until this morning basically. I think the NAM and it's high-res members are just way off track, but I guess you never know. Still thinking a track right around my area.

[Money]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_eus_036_precip_p03.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_eus_036_precip_p03.gif

 

They are either way off, or this will be one hell of a coup for them.

[Money]

lol

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_eus_039_precip_p03.gif

[dubuque473]

[dubuque473]

Going with the GFS and 1-2" for me.

[Tom]

Dubuque, if you remember, that 12z NAM snowfall map is almost spot on what happened in Cycle 2 back on Dec 20-21st.  That's why I still wont discount it just yet.

[gosaints]

My guess is the gfs rgem are to far west and the nam and its high resolution cousins to far east. But who knows

[Money]

Dubuque, if you remember, that 12z NAM snowfall map is almost spot on what happened in Cycle 2 back on Dec 20-21st.  That's why I still wont discount it just yet.

 

We should know pretty soon whos right. Check out the differences within 12 hours from now and the strength of the LP.

[Money]

Dubuque, if you remember, that 12z NAM snowfall map is almost spot on what happened in Cycle 2 back on Dec 20-21st.  That's why I still wont discount it just yet.

 

What does the effect of dynamic cooling have on models? Wouldn't it push the baroclinic zone farther to the SE hence a farther SE track? Could this be what the NAM and it's cousins are hinting at?

[gosaints]

UKIE in the west camp looks like track is barely east of La Crosse

[Tony]

As you guys already know I am not a fan of the GFS(this winter) no matter if it is even showing a blizzard for our area. The NAM has done ok and not sure about the hi-res models. I'm not saying that the NAM is correct but I am not discounting it and it does have support.

[East Dubzz]

The only thing the NAM has support from is two high-res models. The rest are west.

[james1976]

we all know Chicago will get the snow

[dubuque473]

I hope you are right Tom. 

 

It would be interesting to be less then 24 hours away and "Hey btw...blizzard conditions are here" lol

[Tom]

Dynamic cooling only works if your N & W of the track so it doesn't effect the track necessarily. 

[dubuque473]

I wouldn't rule out snow in May at this point for Chicago

[gosaints]

GFS emsembles don't show much variety of track

[indianajohn]

What are the odds we wake up in the morning expecting rain and are in a Blizzard Warning??? I know not possible but the would be epic LOL!!

[Geos]

Total moisture from the RPM I think.

Low goes way west. Rain back west of MSN.

 

[Tony]

The only thing the NAM has support from is two high-res models. The rest are west.

That is enough....again not saying we are going to get blasted but maybe some waa snows early tomorrow am.

[Tom]

12z Euro stays west near Dubuque, IA @ 00z Friday with a 980mb SLP.

[DominicR]

we all know Chicago will get the snow

 

Not this time. This one finally for you or close by.

[Tom]

12z Euro...really backing off on the heavy rains in N IL...

 

 

[Tom]

Looks like it will be a very close call for Dubuque/Cedar Rapids area...if the SLP can track just east of the Mississippi river I think you guys will get snow as this system deepens and tugs down cold air.  Anyone right on the N&W side of the track will get good snows out of this.

[Money]

L goes from DBQ to about GB, right?

[Tom]

12z Euro takes it to just NW of GRB...

[Tom]

If a Euro track holds, a lot of us in WI/IL area will get rains...Th_Snow will get hammered up near Duluth area.

 

 

[Tom]

The only good news (if there is any) for N IL is that rainfall amounts are backing off a bit so not as much flooding as anticipated earlier and less snow melt.

[Geos]

The only good news (if there is any) for N IL is that rainfall amounts are backing off a bit so not as much flooding as anticipated earlier and less snow melt.

 

That is good news. Probably the best case scenario we can pull off in this situation.

 

EURO really pulls the warm air in though. Milwaukee even gets to 50°.

[Tom]

The highs on Thursday are going to be really brief as that warm tongue pulls in and then temps crash later in the day.  It's going to feel muggy and damp out there  around the afternoon hours Thursday.

[Snowshoe]

NWS Green Bay having a fun day I bet!

 

 

 

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014

TRIED TO MAKE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE WATCH AREA IN TIME
FOR THE NOON BROADCASTS BUT SOME OFFICE COORDINATION STILL NEEDS
TO BE WORKED OUT DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACKING OF THIS COMPLEX DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO DEAL WITH
THE THURSDAY MORNING MIXED PCPN ISSUES. ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WELL WITH THE NEXT FORECAST
PACKAGE.

[Sciascia]

NAM looks NW of its previous run.

[Sciascia]

NAM brings back close to an inch of rain here. Boo.

 

Correction: Over an inch.

[james1976]

great euro run for me! 6+

[East Dubzz]

RAP is interesting. Has the storm starting at midnight and has all freezing rain until 6 AM when the run stops. Lol. That would be terrible if that happened, but don't think that's happening at all. Maybe at the beginning, but would change with a couple hours.

 

And just noticed it's showing rain for Waterloo. Because that makes sense! Lol!

[Sciascia]

Snow all gone from my neighbor's roof. That's what 45 degrees & sun does, man.

[Tom]

18z NAM...sends one slug of moisture through N IL and then the dry slot.  Thinking it could be overdone with rainfall.  4km NAM is still showing 1"+ qpf and a squall line type feature as cold front approaches, then back wash light snow.  It's going to be a wild ride tomorrow.

[East Dubzz]

18z NAM...sends one slug of moisture through N IL and then the dry slot. Thinking it could be overdone with rainfall. 4km NAM is still showing 1"+ qpf and a squall line type feature as cold front approaches, then back wash light snow. It's going to be a wild ride tomorrow.

 

I noticed it brings a ton of moisture over here as well. And the Euro drenched my area as well. Gonna me one big mess over here, even with mostly rain. Gonna be a lot of melting with the rain, but then gonna make things a little slick if and when it does change to snow. And even if we don't get snow, all the melted snow and rain will cause some slick spots once it freezes over, which is a problem all of us will have.

[Tom]

Ya, its certainly going to be a mess.  I noticed the snow pack today is very dense and that could hold a lot of the rain tomorrow.  Good thing for you ED, the temps aren't going to get quite as warm as over there and lower dewpoints so that will help your snow cover from melting rapidly.  I really hope we still keep around 6" or so of snow pack.  When this stuff freezes, its going to be hard as a rock!\

 

I just measured 10-11" of snow depth, probably going to finish the day with 2" of snow loss.