May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

The 12z goofus goes into bizzaro land again in the long range, seems to struggle w/ tropical bi-hemispheric wave desynchronization. I think once the AAM fields realign, it'll handle the poleward WAFs on NPAC better.

[TT-SEA]

The goofus goes into bizzaro land again in the long range, seems to struggle w/ tropical bi-hemispheric wave desynchronization.

 

 

This is not patriotic!  

[TT-SEA]

The 12z goofus goes into bizzaro land again in the long range, seems to struggle w/ tropical bi-hemispheric wave desynchronization. I think once the AAM fields realign, it'll handle the poleward WAFs on NPAC better.

 

 

It would be nice for you...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_300_500_vort_ht.gif

[Phil]

This is not patriotic!

I love America! I'm also personally rooting for it. #derechotrain

 

It's still wrong, though. Even the fact that it keeps teasing me with a pattern like that (only to inevitably continue snatching the rug) wouldn't bother me so much if my Twitter feed weren't clogged with weenies and cocky forecasters posting/retweeting/hugging it 24/7.

 

Anyway, I'll shut up about it now.

[Jesse]

It would be nice for you...

 

 

But most importantly, nice for you.

[TT-SEA]

But most importantly, nice for you.

Great. And I post maps that are not nice for me too.

[BLI snowman]

The GFS and Canadian are really close at 240 hours.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

 

But this pattern does not really produce strong onshore flow or rain here.   Seems like it would.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_precip_p03.gif

 

Even relatively strong zonal flow this time of year can end up fairly dry for us. Just not a lot of baroclinicity. Would likely be a cloudy pattern though.

[TT-SEA]

Even relatively strong zonal flow this time of year can end up fairly dry for us. Just not a lot of baroclinicity. Would likely be a cloudy pattern though.

Indeed.

[Jesse]

Indeed.

Definitely onshore flow with that pattern, though. Does that look like offshore flow to you or something?

[Phil]

The progression on the Canadian is much different than the progression on the GFS, however.

 

The Canadian actually rides the trough axis/coinciding jetmax southeastward along the periphery of the building offshore ridge, (probably the correct solution), while the GFS hurls the entire complex eastward (probably the incorrect solution), relatively speaking.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely onshore flow with that pattern, though. Does that look like offshore flow to you or something?

 

No it does not.   And it does not look like strong onshore flow either as I mentioned in my post.   It looks like relatively weak onshore flow based on the pressure gradients.  

 

The 500mb map would lead me to believe the pressure gradients would be strong... but as Justin pointed out the rules are a little different in the summer.

 

No reference to my enjoyment of said pattern.  Just making observations.    

[ShawniganLake]

Is it still May?

[Phil]

ECMWF really building the NPAC ridge this run. Looks more like a classic discontinuous retrogression/-PNA vs a NEPAC vortex.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF really building the NPAC ridge this run. Looks more like a classic discontinuous retrogression/-PNA.

 

 

I noticed that as well through 168 hours.   

 

Everything is backing off and shifting north on this run.

[Phil]

I noticed that as well through 168 hours.

 

Everything is backing off and shifting north on this run.

It's actually colder overall for you guys days 7-10, no mild SW flow. Offshore NPAC ridge pumps, N/NW flow results.

 

Doesn't split the offshore ridge like the GFS. More like the CMC. Kind of on its own with this solution, though.

[TT-SEA]

It's actually colder overall for you guys days 7-10, no mild SW flow. Offshore NPAC ridge pumps, N/NW flow results.

 

Doesn't split the offshore ridge like the GFS. More like the CMC.

 

Is today day 1 or is that tomorrow?

 

Its way warmer than the 12Z run yesterday for Monday and Tuesday... and warmer than the 00Z run.

 

Highs in the 80s those days now.   And still in the mid to upper 70s on day Wednesday.   That is from the ECMWF detailed site.

 

The pattern at 240 hours is looking more benign as well.   

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls03/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls03-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-KyvlPi.png

[Phil]

Colder is a relative term.

 

Its way warmer than the 12Z run yesterday for days 6 and 7... and warmer than the 00Z run.

 

Highs in the 80s those days now. The pattern at 240 hours is looking more benign as well.

Huh? It's over 4F colder over WA/OR vs the 00z with the ridge beginning a retrogression. Those maps are terrible.

[TT-SEA]

Huh? It's over 4F colder over WA/OR vs the 00z with the ridge beginning a retrogression. Those maps are terrible.

 

 

I modified my comment.   I was thinking today was day 1.

 

Those maps are not terrible.  They are amazingly good for surface details here.

 

Monday and Tuesday are warmer than 00Z run.   No question at all.   Wednesday is still in the mid to upper 70s but I don't have the 00Z run at that time frame because that site stops at 180 hours.

 

Thursday and Friday are cooler for sure.   I guess that is day 8 and 9.    Probably upper 60s and low 70s here.   That trough was not on the 00Z run.   But it also seems to steal some thunder from the offshore beast.  

[Phil]

Don't want to post too many clown range model images over something like this, but here's a few. This run is much colder.

 

00z vs 12z 216/204

 

 

 

00z vs 12z 228/216

[TT-SEA]

Go to June thread people!  

[TT-SEA]

Don't want to post too many clown range model images over something like this, but here's a few.

 

00z vs 12z 216/204

 

image.png

image.png

 

00z vs 12z 228/216

 

image.png

image.png

 

00z vs 12z 240/228

 

image.png

image.png

 

Right. 

 

See my post above.   

 

Day 8 and 9 are cooler for sure.   

 

Day 5 and 6 are warmer.   

 

Or should I use hotter and colder?