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May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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This spring has been the complete opposite of 2010 so far.

In transitional situations like this, where we are or have been tends to have less bearing than usual on where we are potentially going. You consistently fail to factor that in. Which comes as no surprise since you really like where we are/have been.

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In transitional situations like this, where we are or have been tends to have less bearing than usual on where we are potentially going. You consistently fail to factor that in. Which comes as no surprise since you really like where we are/have been.

 

 

Another derogatory comment with no provocation.

 

If the tables were turned... you would be sure to point out the current situation is nothing like some year I was mentioning as an analog.

 

This will not be a summer like 2010 or 1983 locally.    Just have to wait until October to prove it.   

 

That being said... obviously the largest warm anomalies of this year are happening now and it will not be like the last two years later in the summer.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Another derogatory comment with no provocation.

 

If the tables were turned... you would be sure to point out the current situation is nothing like some year I was mentioning as an analog.

 

This will not be a summer like 2010 or 1983 locally. Just have to wait until October to prove it.

 

That being said... obviously the largest warm anomalies of this year are happening now and it will not be like the last two years later in the summer.

Jesse is right, though. The large scale pattern, at-present, isn't statistically indicative of where it will be 2-3 months from now. This is easily demonstrable on any timescale of choice.

 

This is why we select analogs in an extrapolative manner, based on known/harmonic forcing parameters. We're forecasting, not hindcasting.

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Jesse is right, though. The large scale pattern, at-present, isn't statistically indicative of where it will be 2-3 months from now. This is easily demonstrable on any timescale of choice.

 

This is why we select analogs in an extrapolative manner, based on known/harmonic forcing parameters. We're forecasting, not hindcasting.

I think a little party of Dewey died inside thanks to that first sentence.

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I think a little party of Dewey died inside thanks to that first sentence.

This is getting old. Really old.

 

You need some new material, especially for someone who half the time is trying to shake the opinionated ****** bag label you earned so deservedly.

 

This summer will be lovely, be it like the last two or not. You'll find nothing from me which has indicating me feeling otherwise. Your anxiety stands alone.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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This is getting old. Really old.

 

You need some new material, especially for someone who half the time is trying to shake the opinionated ****** bag label you earned so deservedly.

 

This summer will be lovely, be it like the last two or not. You'll find nothing from me which has indicating me feeling otherwise. Your anxiety stands alone.

Chill out. It had nothing to do with summer forecasting. More the fact that you seem to have lot of trouble admitting that I ever know what I'm talking about. ;)

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People from the east coast will find this picture extemely lame.

 

 

86 degrees here with convective clouds... sort of impressive for May 2nd.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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86 at SEA at 3 PM, identical to the 3 PM ob. on 4/18 when they hit 89.

 

Seems like they have an outside shot at 90, though more than likely they will peak around 88.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Chill out. It had nothing to do with summer forecasting. More the fact that you seem to have lot of trouble admitting that I ever know what I'm talking about. ;)

Is summer over?

 

It's not out there to adhere to the idea this summer will be cooler than the last two. It would be out there to think it will.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Suddenly losing a bunch of confidence in storms in Klamath Falls. But hey, I lost confidence multiple times last month and either ended up with one or almost had one....

 

I hope things energize east of the cascades soon. That CAPE is sure taking its sweet time. :P

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Is summer over?

 

It's not out there to adhere to the idea this summer will be cooler than the last two. It would be out there to think it will.

 

Last 2 summers were significantly warm. If we had a cooler summer, it can still be warm and above average.

I like the mindset some have on this thread that it has to be either 2015 or 2010. 

 

"Is summer over" - LOL it's May 2nd. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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These two sentences seem to contradict themselves.

 

I don't think so.  Summer has indeed not occurred yet, which would make it strange if I'm supposed to be lauding your skills.  And the bar seems to be really, really low this summer.  The standard seems to be something not top-tier.  Now if you're making a well-informed call in predicting something along the lines of 1983, then if in fact you are correct come September, I'll stroke you all night long.  

 

So what's your call?  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I don't think so. Summer has indeed not occurred yet, which would make it strange if I'm supposed to be lauding your skills. And the bar seems to be really, really low this summer. The standard seems to be something not top-tier. Now if you're making a well-informed call in predicting something along the lines of 1983, then if in fact you are correct come September, I'll stroke you all night long.

 

So what's your call?

Overall summer, anomaly wise? Tough call. Probably why it's been so hotly debated here (no pun intended!).

 

If I were to put money on it, I would say the June-September aggregate ends up near to slightly above average. Forecasting the individual anomalies for each month is a bit more difficult. I may make a summer forecast thread for just such a thing, though.

 

How about yours?

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Awww... How cute. lol

 

I guess this is all I'm getting!

 

http://i67.tinypic.com/1zmcjk0.jpg

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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68 for a high here. With a 10-15 mph breeze all day. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Overall summer, anomaly wise? Tough call. Probably why it's been so hotly debated here (no pun intended!).

 

If I were to put money on it, I would say the June-September aggregate ends up near to slightly above average. Forecasting the individual anomalies for each month is a bit more difficult. I may make a summer forecast thread for just such a thing, though.

 

How about yours?

 

Not too different.  Probably on the warm side, but again I don't put much stock in too much super long range around here during the warm season.  We'll see how things look going into June...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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86 at BLI today. Not sure why we're overachieving so much.

That's amazing.

 

They must have quite a few Summers that never get warmer than that.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Just rained here... massive rain drops and warm.   Some of the largest rain drops I have ever seen.

 

I was hoping for a little thunder... the cloud over us was very dark.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Now I can pinpoint my location on the Space Needle cam... that small shower in the distance is the rain that was falling here.   :)

 

http://s32.postimg.org/6wlxiy1qs/seattle97.jpg

 

I also see why there was no thunder.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Today was a touch warmer up here this time around, hit 87 where the last hot day we hit 86. Still 76 degrees, so pleasant out!!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Sitting out on my back deck at 8:50pm enjoying the warmth and quiet with the exception of the very active birds. Perfection!

image.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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