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June 2016 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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As promised, we are fast approaching met Summer and it seems like a near average to slightly below normal month may be on tap near the Lakes/Midwest.  A slow start to a  hot summer???  Most models have been forecasting it to be a hot summer near the Lakes.  Let's discuss.

 

CFSv2 and CPC thinking below...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201606.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201606.gif

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

 

 

 

I wouldn't mind a drier pattern.  It seems to have rained every other day for the second half of May.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif

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I'm going avg precip here based on the CFS. I see that it flips every few runs so I'm reluctant to side either way. Regards to temps, I'll side slightly below normal.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Here is the latest CanSIPS June Outlook...it pretty much nailed May's outlook last month...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016060100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016060100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png

 

 

 

Here is the NMME outlook...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016050800/nmme_T2ma_us_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016050800/nmme_apcpna_month_us_1.png

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At OKwx, CFSv2 not seeing much heat this summer down by you.  It's been pretty steady on this idea for a couple months now.  As the jet continues to weaken and retreat north, I'm wondering how much longer this rainy pattern will continue.  If it doesn't budge, I doubt you will see much sustained heat this summer down there.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd1.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd1.gif

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it's been a different story for some of us a bit further east

 

attachicon.gifspi.gif

 

haven't had measurable rain in almost 3 weeks now imby

Wow, didn't know it was that dry in Michigan.  Maybe with the troughy pattern that is poised to head into the Lakes later this weekend will spark some storms and needed rain.

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At OKwx, CFSv2 not seeing much heat this summer down by you. It's been pretty steady on this idea for a couple months now. As the jet continues to weaken and retreat north, I'm wondering how much longer this rainy pattern will continue. If it doesn't budge, I doubt you will see much sustained heat this summer down there.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd1.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd1.gif

I guess that'd be fine too. Lol. As long as it doesn't stay cooler than average all summer then "warm up" again during fall and winter I will be a pretty happy camper.

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Weather has been perfect the last two days. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. 

 

Looks like some storms to the west that will make an appearance before dawn?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I picked up 0.91" of rain early this morning from a decent line of storms.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Some of the blistering heat in the desert southwest will move east and the Plains will see the heat build in Thu-Sun.  Next weekend looks toasty around here as well.  The A/C's will be humming for sure.

 

Meantime, looking forward to the "brief" cool down Sun-Wed around here with cool nights and low dewpoints.

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Some of the blistering heat in the desert southwest will move east and the Plains will see the heat build in Thu-Sun.  Next weekend looks toasty around here as well.  The A/C's will be humming for sure.

 

Meantime, looking forward to the "brief" cool down Sun-Wed around here with cool nights and low dewpoints.

 

12z GFS cooled it off again some. 

Today is really cool. Only at 66°.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z GFS cooled it off again some. 

Today is really cool. Only at 66°.

Got another soaker today with heavy showers, no lighting, just pouring rains.  I've never had to water the garden this season yet...bonus.

 

Euro pumps the ridge all the way through the Lakes.  Those arctic easterlies and creating so much blocking near Greenland that the GFS is  having a tough time trying to figure out what to do near the Lakes.  I don't mind if we do get into some heat and a warmer weekend.  Might also spawn a summer "ring of fire" pattern.

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0.37" of rain here today. I hope it dries out for several days now.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I'm definitely going to try and enjoy these cooler days before the torch builds in.  The Plains are going to see the worst of it.  Some very good sleeping ahead Sun-Wed with over night lows in the 50's, parts of MI will probably dip into the 40's for a night or two Tue/Wed.

 

@ Geo's, I agree, we need to dry out a bit around here, but we may be seeing some isolated storms later today and tomorrow.  Wonder if we will manage to hit 90F or higher for 3+ days this week/weekend to constitute an official heat wave.

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I'm definitely going to try and enjoy these cooler days before the torch builds in.  The Plains are going to see the worst of it.  Some very good sleeping ahead Sun-Wed with over night lows in the 50's, parts of MI will probably dip into the 40's for a night or two Tue/Wed.

 

@ Geo's, I agree, we need to dry out a bit around here, but we may be seeing some isolated storms later today and tomorrow.  Wonder if we will manage to hit 90F or higher for 3+ days this week/weekend to constitute an official heat wave.

 

I wish this weather could be the rule the rest of the summer. Maybe slightly less windy.

 

Looks like low in the 40s up this way several nights, and 30s in the Northwoods!

 

GFS is showing a really hot day on Saturday, then Sunday it gets interrupted by a NE wind, before coming back on day 8.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I wish this weather could be the rule the rest of the summer. Maybe slightly less windy.

 

Looks like low in the 40s up this way several nights, and 30s in the Northwoods!

 

GFS is showing a really hot day on Saturday, then Sunday it gets interrupted by a NE wind, before coming back on day 8.

The battle...Euro has a full blown ridge all the way through the U.S/Canadian border.  It's interesting, from the Rockies to the central Plains, CPC says its going to roast with minimal precip.  Pattern change from the wet Spring in NE/KS region???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

 

Ring of Fire pattern is going to fire up later this weekend into the following week.  I like tracking long duration Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's).  Should be some intense storms in the coming 1-2 week period.

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Where are these thunderstorms coming from!? Wasn't forecasted to rain today... weird day.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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After a nice sunny (but dry) 10 day stretch, we got some much needed rain over the weekend across SMI. In my area, it was the nice steady soaking in style too, not the flash flood 80% runs off type. Noticed when I cut my grass Saturday there were dry spots showing up. This sun angle is an evapo-machine on 'roids right now. Got hit with (3) rounds including a mild T-shower Sunday morning so everything should've been affected in a positive way.


 


The winds were even a bit chilly yesterday with mostly cloudy conditions so the rain that fell wasn't getting immediately hit by the sun and heat again. Gave it some time to linger, then we got that line of dying T-showers overnight to keep the theme playing.


 


With any luck, we get the ring-of-fire storms to do the same and avoid the drought conditions


Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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After a nice sunny (but dry) 10 day stretch, we got some much needed rain over the weekend across SMI. In my area, it was the nice steady soaking in style too, not the flash flood 80% runs off type. Noticed when I cut my grass Saturday there were dry spots showing up. This sun angle is an evapo-machine on 'roids right now. Got hit with (3) rounds including a mild T-shower Sunday morning so everything should've been affected in a positive way.

 

The winds were even a bit chilly yesterday with mostly cloudy conditions so the rain that fell wasn't getting immediately hit by the sun and heat again. Gave it some time to linger, then we got that line of dying T-showers overnight to keep the theme playing.

 

With any luck, we get the ring-of-fire storms to do the same and avoid the drought conditions

 

Over here, it seems like we have had the target on our back as we keep getting hit by storms.  I was out and about last night in the city enjoying a street fest and we got hit by a quick thunder shower.  Never ends!  Today, there may be another chance of rain.

 

I'm actually pretty stoked to see some heat this weekend.  I want to head out to the beach this Saturday.  Wouldn't mind a slight onshore breeze to cool the beaches though. As for the "Ring of Fire" pattern, I'd like to see some large storms...been a while.

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Nice day today. Mid 70s, nice breezy. Few showers trying to pop up again.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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With a "Slight Risk" day over much of the LP of Mich, we're seeing some warned cells firing up and moving west to east. Had a pop-up shower with massive size r-drops within the past hour here in the Capital City. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Almost "fall-like" out there this morning...cool and breezy, reminds me of a mid/late September day.  Temps have backed off here on Sun/Mon.  Looks like the central/northern Plains are the ones that will feel the heat for a longer period of time.  Euro has also backed off on temps here for Sun.  GFS had the right idea all along from a few days ago.

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Just looked at the GFS a bit deeper, Sunday may have temps in the 60's lakeside on Sun!  What a wild swing if that pans out....the models are having problems in the medium/long range handling the arctic easterlies that have developed near Greenland over the last couple months and troughs that swing down underneath towards the Lakes.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016060700/gfs_T2m_ncus_24.png

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Today feeling like September for sure. Only at 59° here at noon.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Yeah looks like a night to flip the furnace on!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016060712/rgem_T2m_ncus_8.png

One day I'm going to have to move to the UP of Michigan. Lol. Would be so nice to feel 30s in June. I guess that would only be nice if you don't live there and have to deal with the cold for 7 months a year though.

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Just looked at the GFS a bit deeper, Sunday may have temps in the 60's lakeside on Sun!  What a wild swing if that pans out....the models are having problems in the medium/long range handling the arctic easterlies that have developed near Greenland over the last couple months and troughs that swing down underneath towards the Lakes.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016060700/gfs_T2m_ncus_24.png

Yeah, local met was mentioning a cold front moving in Sunday from the northeast. Interesting.

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It has been a very cool June day here in the Great Lakes area.  Looks like the high here in Grand Rapids was only 63° and right now here at my house I have a temperature of 56° and not too far to the north of here the temperatures are only in the low 50’s and there are also many that are only in the 40’s.  While not unheard of it still not pleasant. 

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Here today looked more like late September or early October.  Lots of clouds and a cold wind. Right now at my house it cloudy and 56°

 

Ditto here up until 7pm. Now it is clearing out. High of 62.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That's quite a trough/front. Actually it will be cold enough to snow downwind of Hudson Bay with this!

Friday is looking the warmest in the mid 80s, then low 80s on Saturday, then Sunday looks as cool as today was.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tomorrow looks stormy for S WI/N IL/NW IN/SW MI.  A good chance that someone will get hit hard with "training" thunderstorms as our first "ring of fire" pattern kicks in ahead of the warm up this weekend.

 

First glimpse of our storms already developing in SW MN.  Should be here locally just after sunrise or during the morning rush hour.

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Made it to only 61° here today with upper 50s along the lake front today with sun! That is really something for early June.

 

Pretty much putting all the yard chores on hold until Sunday now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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