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June 2016 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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One day I'm going to have to move to the UP of Michigan. Lol. Would be so nice to feel 30s in June. I guess that would only be nice if you don't live there and have to deal with the cold for 7 10 months a year though.

 

..fyp

 

 

 

 

KRMY bottomed out at a balmy 40*F just before 6am..only way to go is up, up, up! http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/wink.png

 

My 10-day has nothing less than 80*F for highs, not sure where all this talk of the Fridge door being re-opened is coming from?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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..fyp

 

 

 

 

KRMY bottomed out at a balmy 40*F just before 6am..only way to go is up, up, up! http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/wink.png

 

My 10-day has nothing less than 80*F for highs, not sure where all this talk of the Fridge door being re-opened is coming from?

GFS keeps showing a rather strong "back door" cold front coming down out of the N/NE late Sat and cools temps on Sunday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016060912/gfs_T2m_ncus_14.png

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GFS keeps showing a rather strong "back door" cold front coming down out of the N/NE late Sat and cools temps on Sunday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016060912/gfs_T2m_ncus_14.png

 

Models this time of year tend to bore me since I'm not a severe wx chaser as much as winter wx chaser. NWS currently showing an 7 deg pull-back for Sunday (to 81) and Intellicast folks have a 5 deg pull-back to 83. At least for here (well inland) those both look like Saturday's heat and humidity is replaced by Sunday's more perfect climo conditions. I'll take it. :)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Both GFS/EURO have been showing a cut-off system next week Tue-Fri, first targeting the Plains, then heading east slowly towards the Midwest & southern Lakes....followed by a beauteous weekend next week.  Those who will dry out from the heat this week will prob get a good soaker next week.

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As a follow-up to my post above, I see the NWS has lowered Sunday's high to a very pleasant 78 while the humidity drops fantastically from 83 to 31% by late pm. Looking forward to a stellar June day in mby!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We had some local hail producing storms last night.  Grayslake, IL had 1-1.5" sized hail last night...

 

 

 

 

Another good soaking rain last night should allow for a hot and steamy day today!  Had some nice boomers as well...here is a neat lightning strike...

 

 

 

 

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As we are about to bask in the heat and humidity, this may "cool" your thoughts a bit...

 

Up in the northern part of Alaska, near the Brooks Range, a Winter Storm Warning has been issued...

 

 

 

Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
304 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

AKZ206-102000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160610T2000Z/
NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...ANAKTUVUK PASS...ATIGUN PASS...GALBRAITH LAKE...
SAGWON...FRANKLIN BLUFFS
304 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT
TODAY...

* LOCATION...NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE CREST AND EAST OF THE
DALTON HIGHWAY.

* SNOW...ABOUT 1 INCH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL 4 TO 9 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BY NOON...WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF
SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MAY BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.
 
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As we are about to bask in the heat and humidity, this may "cool" your thoughts a bit...

 

Up in the northern part of Alaska, near the Brooks Range, a Winter Storm Warning has been issued...

 

:huh:  Have to wonder if that amount at that remote and far north of a locale is really headline worthy? Would think their Warning Criteria would be a bit higher as GRR prolly certainly would go with a blanket WWA even in this populous balmy southern region

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:huh:  Have to wonder if that amount at that remote and far north of a locale is really headline worthy? Would think their Warning Criteria would be a bit higher as GRR prolly certainly would go with a blanket WWA even in this populous balmy southern region

 

Not totally unheard of, but unusual for an area that is seeing 24 hours of sunlight right now. Up there, they don't see all that much snow. They get snow in like October and November and then cold dense high pressure usual sets up over the region until the jet stream comes back north in like March and April.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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So far a SE wind is in control and it's only 74° outside. Heaviest rain went south with 0.36" overnight. No hail reports up this way, just some thunder.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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:huh:  Have to wonder if that amount at that remote and far north of a locale is really headline worthy? Would think their Warning Criteria would be a bit higher as GRR prolly certainly would go with a blanket WWA even in this populous balmy southern region

well they have been roasting up there for what seems like a few years now. maybe their tolerance for snow is being lowered  ;)

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LOL - this map says it's a stationary-fest across the US

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not totally unheard of, but unusual for an area that is seeing 24 hours of sunlight right now. Up there, they don't see all that much snow. They get snow in like October and November and then cold dense high pressure usual sets up over the region until the jet stream comes back north in like March and April.

 

Yeah, forgot about the endless daytime for the summer solstice. And I get that they don't get a lot during the heart of winter, but if you're living up there somewhere with the Polar Bears, you better not be ruffled by that amount of the white stuff falling on what I presume is unfrozen ground.

 

well they have been roasting up there for what seems like a few years now. maybe their tolerance for snow is being lowered  ;)

 

:lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Eau Claire is under a Tornado watch. Temperature is 91F and a heat index of 98F! The dewpoint is a sultry 71F.

 

attachicon.gifeauclairewiwxforcast3.PNG

That line of storms near the Northwoods of WI looks nasty.  This is what you'd expect to see on the northern edge of the heat dome building over the Midwest right now.  Lot's of fuel available to fire up some big storms.

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That line of storms near the Northwoods of WI looks nasty.  This is what you'd expect to see on the northern edge of the heat dome building over the Midwest right now.  Lot's of fuel available to fire up some big storms.

 

The line of T'storms just passed Eau Claire. Storm total of 0.46" in 1 hour with strong winds. Temps dropped from 91F to just 69F! Will it come to your area tonight?

 

 

 

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The line of T'storms just passed Eau Claire. Storm total of 0.46" in 1 hour with strong winds. Temps dropped from 91F to just 69F! Will it come to your area tonight?

 

 

attachicon.gifeauclairewxrept3.PNGattachicon.gifeauclairewiwxforcast3.5.PNG

It's forecast to fizzle out as it heads down this way.  I really don't need the extra rain.  We had plenty already over the past few days.

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We need it here in Socal! Your welcome to bring the rain and t'storms to California.

Did you feel the earthquake last night???  A friend of mine in San Diego felt a strong jolt.  5.2 magnitude hit 100 miles east of LA.

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Just missed 90° here today. SE wind cut inland until about 2pm. Just had a gust front go through for a decaying MCS complex. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Convection showing up on the 4km tomorrow morning. Fails to reach 90° on the NAM.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Grand Rapids had its first 90° day yesterday,  Last year GR did not get its first 90° day until July 28th and we had our last one on August 2nd and that was the warmest day of last summer (91°) and of course in 2014 it did not reach 90° officially all that summer. 

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Up to 85, but now clouds have overtaken the skies. Convection modeled must be getting ready to go.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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A very refreshing air mass today.  Don't mind a relaxation of the high humidity and heat for a day.  Back in the heat tomorrow!  Garden is growing real quick over the past week.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016061206/gfs_apcpn_ncus_19.png

 

Another wet week across the corn belt which will bode well for farmers and gardens/lawns.  Should clear up just in time by the following weekend.

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Starting to look fairly pleasant this week especially near the lake.

 

Dew points are in the upper 30's up this way right now and even below freezing in Milwaukee right now! It's like inter Mountain west type air.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Temps are going to torch into the 100's in the central Plains near KS/OK/TX region this week.  Bonafide heat wave and ensembles suggest the pattern not breaking down through this month.  Anyone located to the north should see chances of storms firing up around the dominant ridge that sets up this week.

 

Next 10 days...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016061300/gfs_apcpn_ncus_40.png

 

 

 

@ Okwx, summer is going to be cooking around your area.  Models don't paint much precip to cool down temps in the near future.

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Temps are going to torch into the 100's in the central Plains near KS/OK/TX region this week.  Bonafide heat wave and ensembles suggest the pattern not breaking down through this month.  Anyone located to the north should see chances of storms firing up around the dominant ridge that sets up this week.

 

Next 10 days...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016061300/gfs_apcpn_ncus_40.png

 

 

 

@ Okwx, summer is going to be cooking around your area.  Models don't paint much precip to cool down temps in the near future.

 

So much for those 8-15 day outlooks, eh?

 

Oh, and it was a total shut-out as far as storms from this mini-heat bubble. Nice stiff winds Saturday though helped with the 90+ highs, and yesterday, as expected was a stellar return to classic NMI style summer wx. Loved this weekend. Single day heat wave that wasn't even that bad followed by awesome cool down. Touched 49 this morning for the low. :)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Okwx, summer is going to be cooking around your area. Models don't paint much precip to cool down temps in the near future.

Yeah, it sucks but let's get this thing over with I guess. It was inevitable but I'm thankful May was so beautiful and cool. Some Niñas progress rather quickly from the super hot season back to an early fall like season by late August to early September. Here's hoping this will be one of those years.

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Safe to say the Upper Midwest will be cooler than normal with all the wet soils.

 

Made it down to 50° here this morning. Hasn't even cracked 70° here yet today. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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