June 2016 Observations and Discussions

[OKwx2k4]

No a/c in OK?? That's crazy nuts! I worked in a factory back in '07 here in SMI where we had to wrench on equipment by hand in a certain room that had interior walls only and no a/c. My office had a/c, but I had to spend some days in that room for my project and that summer we had a few triple digit days and that room would heat up to like 120*F in the pm on those days. Also in the heat-wave of '88 I had no a/c at home work or in my (cheap old) car so I've lived it but man, it'd be brutal to go back there again now! Pizza kitchen's no place to work in a hot summer either. Nice in the dead of a NMI winter, but I don't want to be them folks in the summer - no way.

Yeah, people don't really understand why I dread summer but I think sounds like you pretty much get it. Lol. I have never held a job since I was 19 where I worked in an air conditioned or heated building. Held a job for 11 1/2 years as a feed mill operator/lead/maintenance and recently switched to the machinist job I have now with another company. I hate summer. I can always work hard enough to stay warm in the winter but you can't do anything about being hot really.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just curious if he mentions why things have gone opposite out there?

No. He just mentions the computer models being completely off but analogs being right on.

[CentralNebWeather]

My dad worked in a factory here in central Nebraska from 1970-2005 that made portable lights for construction sites. No ac with machines humming. He would get home and collapse in his chair and he wanted the house cool. For our vacations we always went camping in Rocky Mountain national park because he knew it was 2 weeks away from hard manual labor and sweating.

[Tom]

Happy Father's Day everyone!  Have a splendid day.  Mother Nature is delivering a hot and steamy day for most of us on our board.  I'm heading out on the water to the Fox Chain with my brother and his kids.  Enjoy the beauteous day!

[jaster220]

Happy Father's Day everyone!  Have a splendid day.  Mother Nature is delivering a hot and steamy day for most of us on our board.  I'm heading out on the water to the Fox Chain with my brother and his kids.  Enjoy the beauteous day!

 

Thanks Tom, and back at ya! Perfect boat-n-beach wx so my turn to be envious. Hope you had a great time out there!

[Geos]

Happy Father's Day to the dads on the forum!

 

Nice warm and dry day. Was not expecting a dry heat today. 85/56 currently here. 

[Tom]

The Summer Solstice begins today at 5:34pm CST.  Another hot and humid day.  ORD hit 89F yesterday, I think we have had 4 90's this year already, 5 if we hit it today.  It's def been a much warmer summer thus far compared to the previous couple of years.  The water temp near North Ave beach already hit 71F.  Last year it didn't hit the 70's till late July if I recall correctly.

Meantime, hit or miss showers/storms later today, mainly down state.  Wednesday is poised to usher in a solid severe wx threat.

 

 

 

 

 

Teleconnections near the Arctic regions are forecast to flip as the AO/NAO turn positive this week.  I'm going to want to see if the CFSv2, along with other modeling, do in fact have this summer's forecast right with a cooler than normal summer.

 

So far, the Arctic has been near Normal of late, maybe a smidge above normal.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

[OKwx2k4]

The Summer Solstice begins today at 5:34pm CST. Another hot and humid day. ORD hit 89F yesterday, I think we have had 4 90's this year already, 5 if we hit it today. It's def been a much warmer summer thus far compared to the previous couple of years. The water temp near North Ave beach already hit 71F. Last year it didn't hit the 70's till late July if I recall correctly.

Meantime, hit or miss showers/storms later today, mainly down state. Wednesday is poised to usher in a solid severe wx threat.

 

 

 

 

 

Teleconnections near the Arctic regions are forecast to flip as the AO/NAO turn positive this week. I'm going to want to see if the CFSv2, along with other modeling, do in fact have this summer's forecast right with a cooler than normal summer.

 

So far, the Arctic has been near Normal of late, maybe a smidge above normal.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

If the models are going to be right about the summer temps, we need to see the heat domes shoved to their correct places and get the cooldown back going pretty quickly. +AO in July should be pretty good for sea ice. I saw an article that said the record from 2012 is already out of reach so the alarmists should die down quite a bit.

[Tom]

If the models are going to be right about the summer temps, we need to see the heat domes shoved to their correct places and get the cooldown back going pretty quickly. +AO in July should be pretty good for sea ice. I saw an article that said the record from 2012 is already out of reach so the alarmists should die down quite a bit.

Here is the current Arctic Sea Ice Extent...

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries_thumb.png

 

Should begin to head towards the averages if the models are correct.

 

 

Edit:  Here is the link if you want to monitor it...

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

[Tom]

Let's also see what happens near Greenland.  Earlier in April and May sea ice melt was on fire but is now trending towards normal and possibly below normal with a +NAO developing this week.

 

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/images/greenland_melt_area_plot_tmb.png

 

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

[Geos]

It would be nice to gain on the multi year ice total area. Wasn't it just a couple weeks ago it was snowing in the Brooks Range.

 

Looks like dew points are forecasted to crash this afternoon. Front is already through here.

 

[jaster220]

Wow! Just like a fropa in dead of winter enhanced by the lake, this decent looking line just went "POOF" as it moved inland across SMI. We are certainly dry now, and could've used any decent cloud burst. Oh well, one extreme or the other in recent memory; full-on heat and drought, or the opposite. Seems the word "balance" has been deleted from our seasonal vocabulary.

[jaster220]

Was one of the more unique twilight scenarios in Marshall. I cant ever remember seeing a full moon rising very bright and billowing thunderheads (a couple counties south) with lots of lightning strikes shooting up through their tops at the same time. We were walking in town with plenty of trees blocking, but it must've been really photo op worthy for those in the more open farm country! Neat stuff.

[Tom]

@ Jaster, tomorrow you may finally be able to get some nasty storms!  Looks like your in the "Moderate" category issued today from the SPC.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif?1466516646782

[Tom]

Just as the teleconnections flip, the Arctic temps respond...first time they are below normal.  Let's see if this trend continues...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

[Yerf]

closer look for tomorrow

 

 

[Tom]

Cleri8IWMAAsjwt.jpgcloser look for tomorrow

From all indications, tomorrow looks to be wild if this comes together as forecast.  Tons of jet energy coupled with a low level jet and fuel from the heat and humidity down south. 

[jaster220]

@ Jaster, tomorrow you may finally be able to get some nasty storms!  Looks like your in the "Moderate" category issued today from the SPC.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif?1466516646782

 

 

From all indications, tomorrow looks to be wild if this comes together as forecast.  Tons of jet energy coupled with a low level jet and fuel from the heat and humidity down south. 

 

You're in this too buddy, unless you slipped away back to AZ again. Not to doubt, but two points here. 1) I've seen these elevated risk scenarios fail for SMI too many times lately.  2) It's not so much that there's been zero action across SMI (yesterday's storms for example) but they continue to dodge us in every way imaginable. Same pattern we saw in January when the LES stayed just north, several systems got their act together just to my NW or East. I was stuck in the middle with endless 0.5-0.7" dustings if you recall.

 

Perhaps this flip in the Arctic will improve things and as said, Wed into Thur may be the "kick-off"

[james1976]

Im in a flash flood watch for tonight. Looking like an interesting setup underway. May see some severe storms as well.

[westMJim]

All of the storms (and the rain) were to the SW of West Michigan last night.  At this time there looks to be a better chance of seeing a shower yet this morning. So far this month Grand Rapids is still under one inch of rain (0.93” at the airport, 0.66” here at my house) BTW the last time Grand Rapids received less than one inch of rain in June was in June of 1988 (0.25”) one good thing about Michigan is that we are not drought prone,

[Tom]

With the 4th of July weekend not to far away, GEFS is indicating a cooler holiday weekend near the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  EPS is not completely on board with the GEFS, but nonetheless, it doesn't look like a torch is on the way unless your in the West.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016062300/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_7.png

[Tom]

Wish we had a little more sun this morning.  Instead, I'm under a think overcast with some foggy conditions near the Lake and outlying areas.

 

Here are some cool shots of the fog bank rolling in post-storms....

 

 

 

 

Here is the sunrise over Lake Michigan...

 

[NEJeremy]

Ready for any kind of cooler weather here. Although I guess it is summer

So far in Omaha in June, we've had 14 days over 90 including 12 in a row which was our 2nd longest streak ever. We've had the 2nd warmest start to June ever.

We've also had 8 days over 95, but haven't hit 100 yet.

We've been dry as a bone as well as we're over 2" below normal this month.

Can't wait to see my electric bill....

[Geos]

Awesome fog pictures!

 

High of 70° here today, with mostly cloudy skies until about 5pm.

[Thunder98]

All of the storms (and the rain) were to the SW of West Michigan last night.  At this time there looks to be a better chance of seeing a shower yet this morning. So far this month Grand Rapids is still under one inch of rain (0.93” at the airport, 0.66” here at my house) BTW the last time Grand Rapids received less than one inch of rain in June was in June of 1988 (0.25”) one good thing about Michigan is that we are not drought prone,

Do you ever get droughts?

[westMJim]

Do you ever get droughts?

Not the way some parts of the world get them but its all relative. While we do not get a true drought here it can get much dryer than average and that will cause the grass to turn brown. 

[westMJim]

It is another great looking summer day here in the Great Lakes.  With only a week left in June 2016 its time to do something that I have not done in a long time and that is take a look around the state and see where we are compared to average. For the most part the start of summer in the Great Lakes has been above average temperature wise and most places have been dryer than average.  Here is the break down. As of June 23^rd 2016.

In the UP

Sault Ste Marie   Mean temp 59.4° (+0.3°)  rain fall 1.68”

Marquette   mean temp  59.3° (-0.3°) rain fall 2.11”

Houghton     mean temp 58.3° (-0.1) rain fall 2.59”

Northern Lower

Alpena   mean temp 62.2° (+1.1°) rain fall 1.26”

Houghton Lake   mean temp 62.2° (+0.2) rain fall 2.39”

Gaylord mean temp 62.4° (+0.1°) rain fall 2.04”

South west lower

Grand Rapids mean temp 70.0° (+2.5°) rain fall 0.93”

Lansing   mean temp  68.1° (+1.4°) rain fall 0.58”

Muskegon   meant temp 67.1° (+1.7°) rain fall 1.88”

South east lower

Detroit  mean temp 70.4° (+2.2°) rain fall 1.30”

Flint mean temp 69.5° (+3.8°) rain fall 0.67”

Saginaw  mean temp  66.5° (+0.1°) rain fall 1.25”

As has been the case for some time now Flint continues to run warmer than their long term average.

SlimJim
 

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies from yesterday show the following over the next 2 weeks...cooler than normal near the Lakes/East/OV.  Of note also, the Arctic continues with a +AO/NAO.

 

 

[Tom]

I think JB is going to bust on a warmer 4th of July forecast near the Lakes/Midwest/East.  Both GEFS/EPS are starting to look rather cool, mid/upper 70's would be pleasant along with cool nights to have a nice bon fire.

[Geos]

High of 78° on Friday here. Nice breeze off the lake kept dew points and humidity low.

[Tom]

00z Euro really dumps the cool pool in the central Plains on the 4th...both GFS/Euro still on board.  Might be one of the more cooler 4th of July weekends in a few years around these parts.  Been pretty spoiled of late.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016062500/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

[Tom]

It might conceivably stay in the 60's for a lot of the Lakes region on Tuesday...refreshing...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016062512/gfs_T2m_ncus_14.png

[CentralNebWeather]

That would be welcome to nebraskans after a very hot June.

[Thunder98]

Duluth area just got pounded by intense thunderstorms. Severe wx alerts in Minnesota and Western Wisconsin.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

I picked up yet another inch of rain overnight, boosting my June total to 8.07".

[james1976]

Im looking forward to the cooler weather.

[Geos]

Picked up 0.01" of rain this morning. Just can not buy a good rain lately. Miserably humid today, can't wait for Tuesday.

[OKwx2k4]

Euro showing some nice -8° anomalies over my region next weekend. That will be a nice break from the heat. I may be on Dauphin Island next weekend though so I may not get to enjoy it.

[westMJim]

Both the airport and here at my house we had 0.22" of rain this morning so now here at my house I am at 0.95" and at the airport they are now at at 1.15" for the month of June. So far at GRR the departure from average is now at +2.5° and there have been 6 days of 90 or better (with the highest being 93° (officially GRR only had 2 days of 90 or better last two summers with two last summer and none the year before).  So while not a hot June it none-the less has been warmer than average.

[OKwx2k4]

Well, finally getting some rain tonight! Glad for it.