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June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Timmy Supercell
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Timmy Supercell Grand Master

Timmy Supercell

Posted
Posted

June 2016... right now looking like a warm month based on models but can change later.

 

Personally I am more focused on storm chances this summer. Is this looking like a stormy summer for east sides or mostly dry?

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17
Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 52
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 6/23, 6/25, 6/29, 7/3, 7/4, 7/5, 7/14, 7/16, 7/30
8/1, 8/2, 8/8, 8/16, 8/17, 8/29, 8/30, 8/31, 9/6, 9/21
9/24, 9/27, 

Severe storms: 4
Max High: 98 (feels like 106 on Aug 30)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Tyler Mode
Tyler Mode

Here are the only two decent lightning shots I was able to get in Yellowstone.  We had storms on several days, but most were during the day.  Finally this one edged into the overnight a little bit.  T

bainbridgekid
bainbridgekid

Pretty incredible picture of a friend of mine eating fire at Gas Works last night with a huge bolt of lightning behind her.   Photo and impeccable timing cred to Beth Crane.     I saw easily 20+ bolt

Jesse
Jesse

Went whitewater rafting on the White Salmon River today. Not too many heavy showers out that way.   Caught a great rainbow near Beacon Rock on the way home.  

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

12Z ECMWF is still trending warmer for next Monday and Tuesday.    There was already a big jump on the 00Z run for those days.

 

The trend in the long range has also been to back off the troughing and the 12Z run continued that idea.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls03/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls03-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-KyvlPi.png

 

 

This was 240 hours from yesterdays's 12Z run:

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls03/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls03-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-1lpSiC.png

 

And the 216-hour image from the new 12Z run:

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls06/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls06-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-6tVzCk.png

 

It allows a weak trough to sneak through on day 8 and that seems to take away energy from the trough offshore afterwards.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Going to be an interesting EPS run today. All three global models are heading in very different directions during week 2.

 

While I like the idea of a ridge building offshore, the ECMWF is definitely stronger with it than I'd envisioned. Appears to have something to do with how it handles MJO/TC related outflow in the EPAC.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Going to be an interesting EPS run today. All three global models are heading in very different directions during week 2.

 

While I like the idea of a ridge building offshore, the ECMWF is definitely stronger with it than I'd envisioned. Appears to have something to do with how it handles MJO/TC related outflow in the EPAC.

 

 

Might want to take down your maps in the May thread so you do not get in trouble.   It was my mistake on the numbering of the days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Might want to take down your maps in the May thread so you do not get in trouble. It was my mistake on the numbering of the days.

Yeah, I took them down a few minutes ago.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Overall... I am glad I did not lower my June forecast any more. I am getting the feeling this will be another month of alternating between way above normal and normal with just a few truly below normal days.

 

Just a feeling of course.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Don't know if you've noticed, Tim, but each run has looked pretty different. Models are struggling with the change right now. Probably best not to read way too much into every single run at this stage.

Just a feeling.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

It's June 1st.

 

You are making yourself look like a putz. Nothing new I suppose.

 

 

Yesterday we made forecasts all the way through September.

 

Today you are putz if you are speculating about the the first month of that forecast?     :lol:

 

OK.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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Posted

Yesterday we made forecasts all the way through September.

 

Today you are putz if you are speculating about the the first month of that forecast? :lol:

 

OK.

Based entirely on one model run that you happened to really like?

 

Yes.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Based entirely on one model run that you happened to really like?

 

Yes.

 

 

Not based on any single run.   

 

Side note... Phil wanted to wait until the runs last night before making his final call for June.  

 

Just a continuation of that discussion.   If I was speculating on June 1st that I should have lowered my forecast it would be met with likes from you.    Even if it was just speculation.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Posted

12Z ECMWF ensemble mean at 240 hours...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-4a6bdF.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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The 12z EPS also shifted, nationwide furnace in the long range, except for the PNW and New England which are around average. Everything more zonal overall.

 

Actually looks a lot like the 2012-esque EPS weeklies.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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Posted

12Z ECMWF ensemble mean at 240 hours...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-4a6bdF.png

Troughier.

 

Might have to change that monthly forecast again!

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Posted

Troughier.

 

Might have to change that monthly forecast again!

The mean is troughier than the OP, but it definitely shifted towards a zonal flow type pattern, sort of like 2012.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Troughier.

 

Might have to change that monthly forecast again!

Can't change it. Past the deadline. Feeling is still the same.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

The mean is troughier than the OP, but it definitely shifted towards a zonal flow type pattern, sort of like 2012.

Which part of 2012?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Which part of 2012?

June.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Posted

It is because one run backed off a little on troughing?

 

 

Who cares?

 

Based on persistence actually.   Whatever.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

You're bringing up a coolish month.

 

Prepare for a battle.

 

 

No battle at all.   Its all interesting to me.     I am learning from Phil as we go.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Cool kid Jesse is really starting to take over!  

 

This nina is getting its legs!

 

 

Yeah... serious trolling now from him.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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Posted

Just took a look back at June 2012. Really reminded me how sexy Junes used to be capable of being around here, before they went all Fresno on us the last few years

 

Variety is the spice of life!

 

Of course that spice is Anthrax, though...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Just took a look back at June 2012. Really reminded me how sexy Junes used to be capable of being around here, before they went all Fresno on us the last few years

 

 

How could you forget that month!   Right up your alley.   

 

Even rain-loving Andrew called it "terrible".    Here is his succinct summary of June and the first half of 2012:

 

http://s33.postimg.org/pr7elr6um/Untitled.jpg

 

 

We are only Fresno temporarily.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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It was an interesting departure, but I miss our normal ones.

 

June 2013 and 2014 weren't all that abnormal.  More a return to normalcy after a handful which featured at least one fairly long, anomalously cold/wet period.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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June 2013 and 2014 weren't all that abnormal. More a return to normalcy after a handful which featured at least one fairly long, anomalously cold/wet period.

Yeah... 2015 was the oddball. Definitely an early peaking summer last year. Way above normal in June and then a steady decline to below normal in September.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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Posted

How could you forget that month! Right up your alley.

 

Even rain-loving Andrew called it "terrible". Here is his succinct summary of June and the first half of 2012:

 

 

We are only Fresno temporarily. :)

Is this supposed to change my opinion, or simply show me that it's wrong?

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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You're bringing up a coolish month.

 

Prepare for a battle.

I'm armed and ready.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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No battle at all. Its all interesting to me. I am learning from Phil as we go.

We're all learning from everyone and everything, even if we're not consciously aware of it. :)

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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