June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Is this supposed to change my opinion, or simply show me that it's wrong?

 

 

Neither.   Reinforce your opinion actually based on your own preferences.

[Phil]

I don't know why this period interests me so much. I'm spending more time tracking the forcing/AAM and pattern tendencies than I am our potential severe weather outbreak this Sunday.

 

I guess I just enjoy convoluted, brain-bending pattern transitions.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS is much more troughy later next week. Sort of like the ECMWF. I would post map but on my phone now.

[Phil]

Haha, this solution makes less sense to me than the 12z one. What the heck is it doing in the NPAC after hour 204?

[Phil]

I'm just going to shut up and stop critiquing the models from here on out. I'm used to looking at the variables in play and understanding the nature of a pattern, but I think this one is too complicated for me.

[TT-SEA]

I'm just going to shut up and stop critiquing the models from here on out. I'm used to looking at the variables in play and understanding the nature of a pattern, but I think this one is too complicated for me.

Go by feeling and intuition!

[Phil]

Go by feeling and intuition!

Yeah, there's a natural beauty and simplicity in forecasting based on pattern recognition. Some forecasters have built successful careers through the application of such technique.

 

I can't do it outside my region, though. At least not yet.

[Tyler Mode]

Great halo today.  Even a double structure at one point, but only near the left and right of the sun.

 

[TT-SEA]

Great halo today.  Even a double structure at one point, but only near the left and right of the sun.

 

 

 

You captured some cool-looking cloud formations there... almost look like letters!

 

Actually though... the image super-imposed really distracts from the subject matter.    

[Tyler Mode]

You captured some cool-looking cloud formations there... almost look like letters!

 

Actually though... the image super-imposed really distracts from the subject matter.    

I know, I hate that I have to do it.  I've lost too many photos on the internet to not cover them up.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, there's a natural beauty and simplicity in forecasting based on pattern recognition. Some forecasters have built successful careers through the application of such technique.

 

Mark Nelsen, for example.

[Deweydog]

Mark Nelsen, for example.

Common sense doesn't hurt either.

[Front Ranger]

Common sense doesn't hurt either.

 

Intuition and raging warm bias trumps all.

[Deweydog]

Intuition and raging warm bias trumps all.

Keep politics out of it!!!

[Front Ranger]

Keep politics out of it!!!

 

Make the PNW climate great again?

[Deweydog]

Make the PNW climate great again?

Free cold anomalies for everyone!!!

[TT-SEA]

Great evening... some interesting clouds, warm temps, and even a little humidity.

[Jesse]

Common sense doesn't hurt either.

Let me guess, you think nobody here has it but you?

[Phil]

Let me guess, you think nobody here has it but you?

What, you're denying the fact he's above us all?

[Front Ranger]

Free cold anomalies for everyone!!!

 

Build a wall to keep the warm anomalies down south where they belong!!

[Deweydog]

Let me guess, you think nobody here has it but you?

You seriously need some new material.

[Deweydog]

Build a wall to keep the warm anomalies down south where they belong!!

Problem with a wall is that snow will melt faster on one side of it.

[Front Ranger]

Problem with a wall is that snow will melt faster on one side of it.

 

First world problems. 

 

Hopefully figuring out how the snow will melt will be a major issue winter 2016-17. Tim and his gut say watch out for January...

[Timmy Supercell]

Some pretend cumulus clouds earlier to my east. According to NWS Medford we had a rather weak trigger mechanism today for convection, otherwise something decent would have occurred.

 

Seemingly it was very easy for convection to fire back in April/May. No I'm not being nostalgic or anything, storms generally had an easier time forming back in the last couple months.

[TT-SEA]

Raining.

[Jesse]

Problem with a wall is that snow will melt faster on one side of it.

Lucky for us that will be the south facing side.

[TT-SEA]

Raining hard... very nice.

 

And radar shows that Shawnigan is getting some good rain as well.

 

61 here with a dewpoint 57... windows and doors open listening to the sound of the rain on the roof and on the leaves.

[Deweydog]

Lucky for us that will be the south facing side.

Dodging bullets!

 

El Paso may become sub-Arctic.

[TT-SEA]

I made reference to this period in 9 days on the 12Z run...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_228_precip_p03.gif

 

The same period looks like this on the 00Z run:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_216_precip_p03.gif''

 

 

Probably cooler at that time... but the trough offshore is way north.   Huge changes again.  

[ShawniganLake]

Raining hard... very nice.

 

And radar shows that Shawnigan is getting some good rain as well.

 

61 here with a dewpoint 57... windows and doors open listening to the sound of the rain on the roof and on the leaves.

Meh, radar has been deceiving so far. The mountains to my west have been squeezing out most of the moisture. Just 0.03" here thus far.

[TT-SEA]

Meh, radar has been deceiving so far. The mountains to my west have been squeezing out most of the moisture. Just 0.03" here thus far.

 

 

You just can't win there.   

[Phil]

Must..resist..urge..to..bash..GFS..

[TT-SEA]

Must..resist..urge..to..bash..GFS..

 

Its all over the place!    

[stuffradio]

You just can't win there.   

I can "win" here though, but where Shawnigan is is where it's needed. I've been getting heavy showers on and off. I had a little break, but it's just started back up again.

[ShawniganLake]

You just can't win there.

Some heavy showers went thru just south of here. Parts of Victoria have had ~1/3". Somewhat unusual as shawnigan has a wetter climate than Victoria in general. However, in westerly or northwesterly flow, we see more rainshadowing here than in Victoria.

[stuffradio]

Some heavy showers went thru just south of here. Parts of Victoria have had ~1/3". Somewhat unusual as shawnigan has a wetter climate than Victoria in general. However, in westerly or northwesterly flow, we see more rainshadowing here than in Victoria.

Yeah, it's currently raining heavily here.

[BLI snowman]

Its all over the place!

Model swings at 240 hours!?? Get outta town!

[Jesse]

Model swings at 240 hours!?? Get outta town!

Considering they now initialize at 240, that's pretty shocking.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Meh, radar has been deceiving so far. The mountains to my west have been squeezing out most of the moisture. Just 0.03" here thus far.

 

That sucks. It was a humid day in Victoria with sprinkles of rain throughout. Now it's dumping down. In the past hour of rain we're already approaching, in some areas maybe passing, the totals from the Saturday system. It looks like there's some precip starting to work its way in up your way. With the relatively high dew points and quick transition to a ridge I wonder how much of this humidity is going to get trapped in the stagnant air. I don't see much of a post-frontal push to clear it out. It could make for an uncomfortable day on Saturday.

[stuffradio]

How is this for torchiness and the heat never ends?

 

  EC_BCweather
Despite a sweltering first half, May actually came in near normal in terms of temperature #BCweather https://t.co/fJO68LBlei
01/06/16 9:05 am

https://twitter.com/ec_bcweather/status/738038835607707648

 

Vancouver Island finished with above normal temps, but much of the province was normal or BELOW normal in temps.