June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

How is this for torchiness and the heat never ends?

EC_BCweather

Despite a sweltering first half, May actually came in near normal in terms of temperature #BCweather https://t.co/fJO68LBlei

01/06/16 9:05 am

https://twitter.com/ec_bcweather/status/738038835607707648

 

Vancouver Island finished with above normal temps, but much of the province was normal or BELOW normal in temps.

2nd warmest May on record here.

[ShawniganLake]

0z gfs ensembles trended warmer in the long range.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is a little cooler for Sunday than its 12Z run.

[BLI snowman]

00Z ECMWF is a little cooler for Sunday than its 12Z run.

 

Should be close for triple digits down here, climo certainly isn't in favor of it seeing as it's only happened twice before late June (May 1983 and June 1970 in downtown Portland).

[Deweydog]

Tonight's Euro looks different from previous Euro runs which looked different from previous Euro runs before that.

[TT-SEA]

Moderate rain here this morning.    Picked up just under .50 here so far... while SEA and OLM got almost nothing.    Looks like the Portland area also got some rain.   

 

00Z ECMWF is going with the trough for next Wednesday and Thursday so hopefully another chance of rain for everyone.   

 

The pattern in the long term is looking more benign and shifted north.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls15/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls15-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-z3kxec.png

[jcmcgaffey]

SEA really has missed out by a large amount.  I get that it is due to the direction of the storms and the shadowing but there have been several times in the last week or two where I thought the measuring device at SEA was broken or not measuring accurately.   There were several days recently I had between .5 and 1" of rain and SEA had nothing and I only live about 12 miles north.  I would watch a big rain cloud go over SEA and they would only pick up .01 and places nearby would pick up .15 or .20. It just seems a little odd.

Moderate rain here this morning.    Picked up just under .50 here so far... while SEA and OLM got almost nothing.    Looks like the Portland area also got some rain.   

 

00Z ECMWF is going with the trough for next Wednesday and Thursday so hopefully another chance of rain for everyone.   

 

The pattern in the long term is looking more benign and shifted north.

 

 

[Jesse]

If PDX hits 100 on Sunday, it would be the only time they have gotten that hot this early aside from 1983...

 

Fortunately for us that is a terrible analog that we will never follow.

[TT-SEA]

SEA really has missed out by a large amount.  I get that it is due to the direction of the storms and the shadowing but there have been several times in the last week or two where I thought the measuring device at SEA was broken or not measuring accurately.   There were several days recently I had between .5 and 1" of rain and SEA had nothing and I only live about 12 miles north.  I would watch a big rain cloud go over SEA and they would only pick up .01 and places nearby would pick up .15 or .20. It just seems a little odd.

 

 

 

Yeah... I was just thinking this morning that there might be an issue with the precip sensor at SEA.

 

Still have heavy drizzle here and up to .65 on the day.    A great soaking rain here.

[TT-SEA]

If PDX hits 100 on Sunday, it would be the only time they have gotten that hot this early aside from 1983...

 

Fortunately for us that is a terrible analog that we will never follow.

 

 

We won't follow 1983... not even close locally.       

 

And one day is not a good guide anyways.

 

2003 is probably a better match to this pattern anyways.   1983 was hot flash amidst cool, wet weather.

[Jesse]

We won't follow 1983... not even close locally.       

 

And one day is not a good guide anyways.

 

2003 is probably a better match to this pattern anyways.   1983 was hot flash amidst cool, wet weather.

 

Forum fantastic!

[TT-SEA]

Analog list from CPC also showing early June of 1998 on the list lately.   

[Jesse]

Analog list from CPC also showing early June of 1998 on the list lately.

Any years you don't like showing up?

[TT-SEA]

Any years you don't like showing up?

Really need to filter out years that were totally different from an ENSO perspective.

 

There are a wide variety of years showing up... but I am looking for years with a Nino to Nina transition as having some possible future predictive value.

 

1998 has been on our list of possible analogs so its interesting when it shows up on the analog list multiple times. Might not mean anything, but Nino to Nina years carry more weight of course.

[Jesse]

Really need to filter out years that were totally different from an ENSO perspective.

 

There are a wide variety of years showing up... but I am looking for years with a Nino to Nina transition as having some possible future predictive value.

 

1998 has been on our list of possible analogs so its interesting when it shows up on the analog list multiple times. Might not mean anything, but Nino to Nina years carry more weight of course.

That didn't really answer my question.

[TT-SEA]

That didn't really answer my question.

There are years with all kinds of different results for summer on the list.

 

Point stands though.

 

1951 has been high on the list. That was a great summer in my opinion. But it's probably meaningless since ENSO was going in the opposite direction.

 

Of course last summer was going in the opposite ENSO direction and still was a summer with an early peak and then a steady decline to below normal by September.

[Timmy Supercell]

June 4th will be an easy record breaker in Klamath Falls, 89 was the record in 1969. Forecast to be 96 (was forecast to be 98 earlier). It may match record June high temperature of 98 set in 1992 and 2015.

 

And if 100 happens, I beat record earliest 100+ by around a month. (07/02/2013 is the earliest and my last). They are more rare than in Portland. Based on averages, maybe every 8 occurrences in PDX there would be 1 in K-Falls.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is troughalicious.  

[Jesse]

12Z GFS is troughalicious.

I was wondering why it took you so long to post about it. That explains it.

 

Not even any maps.

[Jesse]

We will hear about the 12z Euro trending warmer 25 minutes early if it does, though.

 

Objective analysis.

[TT-SEA]

I was wondering why it took you so long to post about it. That explains it.

 

Not even any maps.

 

 

On my phone.   

[TT-SEA]

We will hear about the 12z Euro trending warmer 25 minutes early if it does, though.

 

Objective analysis.

 

 

Not with maps until after 1 when I get back home. 

[Phil]

We won't follow 1983... not even close locally.

 

And one day is not a good guide anyways.

 

2003 is probably a better match to this pattern anyways. 1983 was hot flash amidst cool, wet weather.

Looks more like 1980 to me, at least over the Western Hemisphere.

[Jesse]

Very nice.

 

[Phil]

Really need to filter out years that were totally different from an ENSO perspective.

 

There are a wide variety of years showing up... but I am looking for years with a Nino to Nina transition as having some possible future predictive value.

 

1998 has been on our list of possible analogs so its interesting when it shows up on the analog list multiple times. Might not mean anything, but Nino to Nina years carry more weight of course.

The years showing up most frequently since April have been 1983, 1988, 1973, 1995, 1966, 2007, 1978, 1993, 1980, 1991, 1994, 1959, 2005, 1954.

 

Actually have seldom seen 1998. It started showing yesterday, but it's still a terrible analog, and has shown no predictive value over the US this spring/summer.

 

In fact, 1998 featured the driest May on record in the US. Obviously, nothing like 2016 from a pattern perspective, in the long run.

[Phil]

We won't follow 1983... not even close locally.

 

And one day is not a good guide anyways.

 

2003 is probably a better match to this pattern anyways. 1983 was hot flash amidst cool, wet weather.

Over the US as a whole, we'll likely follow a blend of 1978, 1980, 1983, 1988, and 1995 fairly closely, in my opinion.

[TT-SEA]

The years showing up most frequently since April have been 1983, 1988, 1973, 1995, 1966, 2007, 1978, 1993, 1980, 1991, 1994, 1959, 2005, 1954.

 

Actually have seldom seen 1998. It started showing yesterday, but it's still a terrible analog, and has shown no predictive value over the US this spring/summer.

 

In fact, 1998 featured the driest May on record in the US. Obviously, nothing like 2016 from a pattern perspective, in the long run.

 

 

Where we have been has no implication on where we are going!   

 

At least that is what you taught me.  

[Phil]

Where we have been has no implication on where we are going!

 

At least that is what you taught me.

True, my reasons for disliking 1998 as an analog have nothing to do with how frequently it shows up on an image during a certain few weeks.

[TT-SEA]

True, my reasons for disliking 1998 as an analog have nothing to do with how frequently it shows up on an image during a certain few weeks.

 

 

Understood.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF showing another heat wave for next weekend now.   

 

Maps to follow when I get home.  

[Deweydog]

12Z ECMWF showing another heat wave for next weekend now.

 

Maps to follow when I get home.

Thou shalt be judged!!!

[Phil]

Poor blob. Developing low frequency clockwise flow should finish it off by July. Might briefly resurge during the first half of June, however.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.2.2016.gif

[TT-SEA]

Very nice.

 

image.png

 

Those warm, ridgy members are a possible hint of a pending switch to the ECMWF solution.  

[Phil]

Those warm, ridgy members are a possible hint of a pending switch to the ECMWF solution.

Yeah, there's widespread suggestion for a GOA ridge during week2 now, though it'll root farther west/offshore overall compared the current one, and eventually the ridging should set up completely offshore. Almost like a drawn out version of discontinuous retrogression.

 

All in all, it fits with the idea of a warm first half of June, followed by a much cooler second half.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, there's widespread suggestion for a GOA ridge during week2 now, though it'll root farther west/offshore overall compared the current one, and eventually the ridging should set up completely offshore. Almost like a drawn out version of discontinuous retrogression.

 

All in all, it fits with the idea of a warm first half of June, followed by a much cooler second half.

 

 

Don't tell the GFS.     It will probably figure it out soon enough on its own.

[Jesse]

Those warm, ridgy members are a possible hint of a pending switch to the ECMWF solution.

Good thing. It would have been a shame to avoid another record warm month.

[Phil]

Don't tell the GFS. It will probably figure it out soon enough on its own.

http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images/blog/ECMWF-GFS-NAM_cartoon.jpg

[Phil]

Good thing. It would have been a shame to avoid another record warm month.

You'll enjoy the second half of June. The first half was always going to torch.

 

Probably won't be a +4 month like I was originally thinking, but still easily +2.5 region wide.

[TT-SEA]

You'll enjoy the second half of June. The first half was always going to torch.

 

Probably won't be a +4 month like I was originally thinking, but still easily +2 to +3 regionwide.

 

Yeah... even 1889 had a relatively cool second part of June after a torchy first half.   

[Phil]

Also, FWIW, low pass E-IO (80-110E) forcing and a dropping AAM integral now showing up on all the long range guidance, including the EPS, CFS, and now the GEFS/NAEFS/CMC ensembles starting late June, so agreement growing on that one.

 

Glad I lowered my July anomalies in the contest, despite the timing/amplitude uncertainties.