June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

The second half of July and the first half of August is the most consistently nice period of the year here. Even in the coolest summers there is almost always dry and warm weather in that period. I think any troughing will be focused north of us at that time.

Lol.

[Deweydog]

The second half of July and the first half of August is the most consistently nice period of the year here. Even in the coolest summers there is almost always dry and warm weather in that period. I think any troughing will be focused north of us at that time.

 

[TT-SEA]

Lol.

Its true. Might not be above normal but it's almost guaranteed to be dry and warm.

[Phil]

The second half of July and the first half of August is the most consistently nice period of the year here. Even in the coolest summers there is almost always dry and warm weather in that period. I think any troughing will be focused north of us at that time.

I'm sure your weather will be quite "nice", especially compared to what most of the country will be getting by then (sweatbath).

 

It'll still probably be cooler than average, though. Not just in the PNW, but also over most of the western United States. Hard to be super specific right now, but this looks like a fairly safe bet forecast wise, at least in my opinion.

[Jesse]

Its true. Might not be above normal but it's almost guaranteed to be dry and warm.

Except when it isn't.

[TT-SEA]

I'm sure your weather will be quite "nice", especially compared to what most of the country will be getting by then (sweatbath).

It'll still probably be cooler than average, though. Not just in the PNW, but also over most of the western United States. Hard to be super specific right now, but this looks like a fairly safe bet forecast wise, at least in my opinion.

Agreed.

[Front Ranger]

Its true. Might not be above normal but it's almost guaranteed to be dry and warm.

Climo-wise, sure. But climo-wise, late November/early December should be quite wet, and occasionally it's not.

 

Genuine troughing can happen in the PNW in mid summer. Haven't seen it much in recent years, but it has happened historically.

 

That being said, I agree that late July to mid August won't be wall to wall cool/damp weather. There will be some sort of ridging and dry summery weather in there at times. But could be very different than recenr summers.

[TT-SEA]

Climo-wise, sure. But climo-wise, late November should be wet, and occasionally it's not.

Genuine troughing can happen in the PNW in mid summer. Haven't seen it much in recent years, but it has happened historically.

That being said, I agree that late July to mid August won't be wall to wall cool/damp weather. There will be some sort of ridging and dry summery weather in there at times. But could be very different than recenr summers.

Its already different than recent summers.

 

Although last summer was a great example of an early peak as well. This June has been much different though.

[Front Ranger]

Its already different than recent summers.

 

Although last summer was a great example of an early peak as well. This June has been much different though.

Obviously. But we're talking about mid summer. Troughing and periods of cool/wet weather is definitely possible.

[Deweydog]

7/8 of the requisite courses for an advanced meteorological degree cover the fact weather conditions may vary.

[TT-SEA]

Obviously. But we're talking about mid summer. Troughing and periods of cool/wet weather is definitely possible.

Of course.

[TT-SEA]

I think 1954 was one of the coolest summers ever here.    In that year from mid-July to mid-August out here in the foothills the vast majority of the days were in the mid 70s to low 80s and it rained on only 3 days.

 

1973 was the same... rain on 4 days with most days in the mid 70s to low 80s.

 

Same story in 1983... although there more warm days that year.   Peaking at 90 on 7/30.

 

In 1988 there was no rain at all in that period with most days in the upper 70s and low 80s and 6 days over 90.  

 

I think this lines up with what Phil is saying... a little below normal with some form of troughing at times.    

[Deweydog]

I think 1954 was one of the coolest summers ever here. In that year from mid-July to mid-August out here in the foothills the vast majority of the days were in the mid 70s to low 80s and it rained on only 3 days.

 

1973 was the same... rain on 4 days with most days in the mid 70s to low 80s.

 

Same story in 1983... although there more warm days that year. Peaking at 90 on 7/30.

 

In 1988 there was no rain at all in that period with most days in the upper 70s and low 80s and 6 days over 90.

 

I think this lines up with what Phil is saying.

I dunno... I remember this one guy losing his mind in 2010 or something over varying degrees of low cirrus.

 

Our summers are clearly super-dynamic!

[TT-SEA]

I dunno... I remember this one guy losing his mind in 2010 or something over varying degrees of low cirrus.

 

Our summers are clearly super-dynamic!

 

2010 was an unusually stubborn marine layer year. The cloudiest summer in Seattle history.

 

And even in that year... there was almost no rain and the majority of the days were nice in the mid-July through mid-August period. We even had two heat waves in July and August that year.

 

The worst part of 2010 was May and June. It rained on 32 straight days here in that time frame. I was not alone in thinking that was annoying.

[Deweydog]

2010 was an unusually stubborn marine layer year. The cloudiest summer in Seattle history.

 

And even in that year... there was almost no rain and the majority of the days were nice in the mid-July through mid-August period. We even had two heat waves in July and August that year.

 

The worst part of 2010 was May and June. It rained on 32 straight days here in that time frame. I was not alone in thinking that was annoying.

Crazy.

[TT-SEA]

Crazy.

 

 

It was.   

[Jesse]

It was.

Well within the range of normal for our climate. You have been spoiled by unusually warm, sunny and humid weather in the warm season the last few years. Other shoe will drop at some point. Could be this summer...

[TT-SEA]

Well within the range of normal for our climate. You have been spoiled by unusually warm, sunny and humid weather in the warm season the last few years. Other shoe will drop at some point. Could be this summer...

 

 

Right.   

 

32 straight days of rain in May and June is not well within normal here.   It has never happened in our local history going back to 1898.   That is not even within normal in November and December.     It can happen but its fairly extreme.

 

I don't call last summer spoiling anyone.   It was extreme the other way.  

[Deweydog]

It was.

No Hearts on deck that summer.

 

Cooking MRE's in the storm shelter was far more common.

[TT-SEA]

No Hearts on deck that summer.

 

Cooking MRE's in the storm shelter was far more common.

 

 

Actually... there still was plenty of outdoor fun after we got through the mess in May and June.      

 

I remember that the 4th of July was not too nice though.   

[Jesse]

No Hearts on deck that summer.

 

Cooking MRE's in the storm shelter was far more common.

That summer was completely unprecedented though.

 

There had been no other generally cool and cloudy summers in our history until that one came around. Good thing we got it out of the way because it will probably be at least another century before we see another one.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is fully on board with the weekend trough.

[TT-SEA]

That summer was completely unprecedented though.

 

There had been no other generally cool and cloudy summers in our history until that one came around. Good thing we got it out of the way because it will probably be at least another century before we see another one.

 

 

Sure.

 

Thankfully we got 2015 out of the way as well.

 

That will never happen again.   

[Deweydog]

That summer was completely unprecedented though.

 

There had been no other generally cool and cloudy summers in our history until that one came around. Good thing we got it out of the way because it will probably be at least another century before we see another one.

Oh Nancy, it's practically on par with making the last two summers out to be hell on earth. Just fairly minor tweaks in a moderate climate.

[TT-SEA]

4th of July is definitely cool and showery... hopefully a little better farther east.    

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls02/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls02-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-p_sve5.png

[Jesse]

Oh Nancy, it's practically on par with making the last two summers out to be hell on earth. Just fairly minor tweaks in a moderate climate.

Eh, we've seen several historically warm summers this century so far and only a couple cool (and not even historically so) ones.

 

I will readily admit that I hated the last couple summers, but at least I'm not pretending they were some sort of outlier we will never see again.

[TT-SEA]

Eh, we've seen several historically warm summers this century so far and only a couple cool (and not even historically so) ones.

 

I will readily admit that I hated the last couple summers, but at least I'm not pretending they were some sort of outlier we will never see again.

 

 

I never said that either.    You are making stuff up now.  

[BLI snowman]

I think 1954 was one of the coolest summers ever here.    In that year from mid-July to mid-August out here in the foothills the vast majority of the days were in the mid 70s to low 80s and it rained on only 3 days.

 

1973 was the same... rain on 4 days with most days in the mid 70s to low 80s.

 

Same story in 1983... although there more warm days that year.   Peaking at 90 on 7/30.

 

In 1988 there was no rain at all in that period with most days in the upper 70s and low 80s and 6 days over 90.  

 

I think this lines up with what Phil is saying... a little below normal with some form of troughing at times.    

 

You would have liked early August 1976. 

[Phil]

I think 1954 was one of the coolest summers ever here. In that year from mid-July to mid-August out here in the foothills the vast majority of the days were in the mid 70s to low 80s and it rained on only 3 days.

 

1973 was the same... rain on 4 days with most days in the mid 70s to low 80s.

 

Same story in 1983... although there more warm days that year. Peaking at 90 on 7/30.

 

In 1988 there was no rain at all in that period with most days in the upper 70s and low 80s and 6 days over 90.

 

I think this lines up with what Phil is saying... a little below normal with some form of troughing at times.

Yeah, based on the averages and submonthly standard deviations from SEA/PDX, even a solidly below average July/August would probably feature numerous 70s/low 80s highs at times. It's summer, after all.

 

The 90+ stuff isn't a given, though. Might be done with that for the year.

[TT-SEA]

Tim knows his call for early July troughing is going to bust.

 

 

My call is not going to bust.    Just like the troughing beginning in mid-May and then the troughing I predicted from June 10-24.    I also said the last week of June would be warm.   Not bad!

  

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls02/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls02-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-p_sve5.png

 

Will a couple weeks of normal or slightly below normal temperatures wipe out the +12 departure SEA and the +13 departure at PDX after the first week of the month?

 

The contest hangs in the balance!

 

My intuition tells me the last week of June will be back above normal.

 

 

 

Its all about timing.   I think a warm spell during the last week of June and troughy period during the first week of July is a pretty good call right now.

 

[Front Ranger]

I think 1954 was one of the coolest summers ever here.    In that year from mid-July to mid-August out here in the foothills the vast majority of the days were in the mid 70s to low 80s and it rained on only 3 days.

 

1973 was the same... rain on 4 days with most days in the mid 70s to low 80s.

 

Same story in 1983... although there more warm days that year.   Peaking at 90 on 7/30.

 

In 1988 there was no rain at all in that period with most days in the upper 70s and low 80s and 6 days over 90.  

 

I think this lines up with what Phil is saying... a little below normal with some form of troughing at times.    

 

Check out August 1968, July/August 1932, July/August 1948, July 1955, July/August 1964, August 1976, July 1993, August 1995.

 

I know you want to stick to a certain set of analogs, but the point is, troughing and cool/wet weather can happen mid July to mid August.

[TT-SEA]

Check out August 1968, July/August 1932, July/August 1948, July 1955, July/August 1964, July 1993, August 1995.

 

I know you want to stick to a certain set of analogs, but the point is, troughing and cool/wet weather can happen mid July to mid August.

 

 

Of course it can happen.   But cool/wet weather is never dominant in the mid-July though mid-August period.

 

July 1955 for example... 6 days of wet weather in the mid-July to mid-August period and the other 25 days were in the 70s to low 80s and dry.

 

Mid-July to mid-August of 1968 was spectacular.   Most days in the 80s and only 2 days with light precip.   The second half of August was a mess but that is much more common.

 

1948 - 7 days with precip many days in the 70s and 80s with a peak of 88.

 

1932- 6 days with precip and most days in the 70s and 80s and a week of upper 80s in late July.

 

1964 was probably the wettest/coolest that I have seen but even then 65% of the days in that period were dry and in the 70s or 80s.

 

Wet and cool never dominant from mid-July though mid-August.   

[Deweydog]

PNW summers are generally mild and dry. Generally.

 

Resident genius.

[Phil]

 

My call is not going to bust. Just like the troughing beginning in mid-May and then the troughing I predicted from June 10-24. I also said the last week of June would be warm. Not bad!

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls02/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls02-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-p_sve5.png

Lol, maybe you'll get lucky this time. That's NAMT-driven pseudo retrogression, timed perfectly with a shortwave in the GOA under poleward -AAM propagation. Probably karma for my fight with you.

 

This isn't actually troughing I was referring to in my forecast, though. That comes later on.

[TT-SEA]

Heh, maybe you'll get lucky This would be NAMT-driven pseudoretrogression timed perfectly with a shortwave in the GOA. Probably karma for my fight with you.

 

This isn't actually troughing I was referring to. That comes later on.

 

Lots of "luck" for me this spring and early summer.  

 

Same with the last 2 summers in fact.  

[Phil]

Lots of "luck" for me this spring and early summer.

 

Same with the last 2 summers in fact.

Lol, you were saying July would "blowtorch" just a few weeks ago. Sticking to your guns on that one?

 

FWIW, back in late May you also said ridging would return mid June.

[Deweydog]

Lol, maybe you'll get lucky this time. That's NAMT-driven pseudo retrogression, timed perfectly with a shortwave in the GOA under poleward -AAM propagation. Probably karma for my fight with you.

 

This isn't actually troughing I was referring to in my forecast, though. That comes later on.

Pseudotroughing!

[Front Ranger]

Of course it can happen.   But cool/wet weather is never dominant in the mid-July though mid-August period.

 

July 1955 for example... 6 days of wet weather in the mid-July to mid-August period and the other 25 days were in the 70s to low 80s and dry.

 

Mid-July to mid-August of 1968 was spectacular.   Most days in the 80s and only 2 days with light precip.   The second half of August was a mess but that is much more common.

 

1948 - 7 days with precip many days in the 70s and 80s with a peak of 88.

 

1932- 6 days with precip and most days in the 70s and 80s and a week of upper 80s in late July.

 

1964 was probably the wettest/coolest that I have seen but even then 65% of the days in that period were dry and in the 70s or 80s.

 

Wet and cool never dominant from mid-July though mid-August.   

 

Of course not. But the overall patterns can vary. And be significantly different than recent years.

[Phil]

Pseudotroughing!

Pseudotorquing!

[Front Ranger]

Pseudotroughing!

 

Pseudo nice, though.