July 2016 Observations and Discussions

[Geos]

Last nights storms brought area wide beneficial rains which soaked into the soil quite well as I witness a few minutes ago as I strolled around my back yard.  We were getting dry up towards the norther burbs and near W IL.  A general 1-2" of rain fell in those drought stricken areas.  Should be back to normal and if more storms fire up Fri/Sat, even better.

 

 

 

Some cool lightning strikes once again.  The Cloud to Ground explosion is fantastic.  This one struck in S WI...

 

 

 

 

Downtown Chicago double strike...

 

 

Sweet lightning shots!

Had a lightning show out here last night. Was thinking I was back in the Midwest!

[NEJeremy]

my weather station has a heat index of 123 degrees! I think the temp is a bit warm at 98, but the humidity of 64% is spot on with the airport measurement so I'd say it's safe to say we're close to 120 degree heat index. one more brutal day tomorrow before the cool down starts. highs in the mid 80s are forecast for next week

[Tom]

my weather station has a heat index of 123 degrees! I think the temp is a bit warm at 98, but the humidity of 64% is spot on with the airport measurement so I'd say it's safe to say we're close to 120 degree heat index. one more brutal day tomorrow before the cool down starts. highs in the mid 80s are forecast for next week

That is outrageous!  Our Excessive Heat Warning has been cut back from the MCS we had Thu night.  In fact, we have no heat advisories whatsoever in NE IL.  Kinda odd, bc it feels so dang sticky and humid out there.  Sitting at 87/74 currently and I can sense the airmass outside wants to billow up some storms and dump torrential rains.  It's that kind of day out there today.  I have a feeling that my 3 year old nieces B day party will be primarily indoors if that's the case.

[Tom]

Boy, did we get some drenching storms last night.  This time, it was the northern burbs!  Here are some rainfall totals....a general 1 to locally 5" of rain fell last night, the most fell in N Cook/Lake county.  The Edens expressway was shut down last night due to the rain.

 

@ Geo's, I think your area got close to 4-5" of rain last night.

 

Over the last couple days, I think I've received close to 3" of rain.  More expected to fire up tonight along a cold front that is expected to trigger more storms by late afternoon in N IL/S MI.

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016072412/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016072412/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_11.png

Both Willis Tower and Hancock got hit...

 

 

 

 

The sun is starting to come out and temps are beginning to rise into the upper 70's with dewpoints in the 70's.  It will be the last day of this oppressive heat and humidity as much welcomed drier and less humid air comes back into the region.  Glad to see everything soaked and the garden with a much need drink.

[Hawkeye]

I wasn't expecting the 80 dewpoint air to stick around all day today.  Waterloo is down to mid 60s dew, but the nw wind just hasn't brought any relief here, yet.

[Tom]

Storms erupted right over head about 30 min ago as towering cumulonimbus clouds developed and the heavens opened up!  In fact, I had a pretty narly microburst as the trees bent quite a bit but nothing severe.  It was nice to see it happen during the day.  Some vivid and loud lightning with torrential rains...prob will pick up another 1" or so. 

[Tom]

Check out the dewpoint readings in the local region...are you serious???  Low 80's are just insane...

 

 

 

Better not be in a boat during a storm!

 

 

 

 

Local rains in the Chicago area from last night...

 

[Tom]

After what has been a stretch of hot and steamy days, yet very active wx around here over the past week, I"m glad we can dry out and enjoy some tranquil wx for a few days.  Looking forward to some cooler air to settle into the area by the weekend.  However, next week, the ridge will build back in for a few days and I think this will be one of the last chances we will see real summer Heat near the Lakes/Midwest for the summer season.  The LRC suggests a ridge to build in during the 1st part of August, but it won't last long as NW Flow should develop again.  August may in fact end up being a cooler/wet month for a lot of us in the sub forum.

[jaster220]

Was Up North for a few days, come home to soaked everything and now (LOL @ Ma Nature) it's hard to find a blade or stalk of anything that isn't green! Just 3 weeks ago, the 2012 path looked immanent.   

[OKwx2k4]

Good videos on weatherbell this morning. Looking to me like, aside from possibly one more heat ridge popping up soon, that summer is fixing to lose a lot of its grip here over the majority of our region. Another thing that you have to love is already seeing evidence of the very very warm waters at high latitudes in the North Pacific at work already. Not really a classic +PDO but it is nonetheless. Tom, how many more cycles do you think would be left in the 2015-16 LRC? Only 1 or 2 right?

[Tom]

Good videos on weatherbell this morning. Looking to me like, aside from possibly one more heat ridge popping up soon, that summer is fixing to lose a lot of its grip here over the majority of our region. Another thing that you have to love is already seeing evidence of the very very warm waters at high latitudes in the North Pacific at work already. Not really a classic +PDO but it is nonetheless. Tom, how many more cycles do you think would be left in the 2015-16 LRC? Only 1 or 2 right?

Indeed, JB's Aug outlook looks similar to CPC's thinking with a cooler central CONUS and warmer west/east coasts. As for the LRC, we are beginning the last and final 7th cycle. Climo speaking, we are reaching the jet streams weakest point and will eventually begin strengthening slowly towards the end of Aug. Having said that, we will see glimpses of a new cycle showing up towards the beginning of Sept but still have the influence of our current LRC cycle.

[Tom]

If the GFS/EURO are right, Arctic temps may dip near freezing for the first time this summer later this week.  Trend has been below normal since the start of summer.  I think summer temps have reached their peak about 1-2 weeks ago.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

[jaster220]

If the GFS/EURO are right, Arctic temps may dip near freezing for the first time this summer later this week.  Trend has been below normal since the start of summer.  I think summer temps have reached their peak about 1-2 weeks ago.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

 

Hey, It's 273.15º !!!!   Talk about global warming!  Yikes!    

 

Just curious, do you know where exactly that reading is taken? Are we talking the North Pole, or just anywhere north of a certain latitude?

[Tom]

Hey, It's 273.15º !!!!   Talk about global warming!  Yikes!    

 

Just curious, do you know where exactly that reading is taken? Are we talking the North Pole, or just anywhere north of a certain latitude?

That reading is in "Kelvin", which is 0C.  The reading is a daily mean temp north of 80 degrees North.

[jaster220]

That reading is in "Kelvin", which is 0C.  The reading is a daily mean temp north of 80 degrees North.

 

Hence my joking..LOL

 

So, is there a lot of stations north of 80ºN?

[Tom]

Hence my joking..LOL

 

So, is there a lot of stations north of 80ºN?

I know, I know...buy maybe some didn't know what it means.  I'm not sure if there are a lot of stations in that part of the world.  Maybe its satellite driven or computer driven.

 

I did a quick search and this is what I found...

 

 

Plus 80N Temperatures - explanation.

 

The temperature graphs are made from numerical weather prediction (NWP) "analysis" data. Analyses are the model fields used to start NWP models. They represent the statistically most likely state of the atmosphere, given the information available to make the analysis. Since the data are gridded, it is straight forward to deduce the average temperature North of 80 degree North. However, since the model is gridded in a regular 0.5 degree grid, the mean temperature values are strongly biased towards the temperature in the most northern part of the Arctic! Therefore, do NOT use this measure as an actual physical mean temperature of the arctic. The 'plus 80 North mean temperature' graphs can be used for comparing one year to an other.

 

The process of making the analysis is called "data assimilation". In an NWP data assimilation system many, very different types of observations and other information are combined in a statistical manner. In practice the assimilation is done via adjusting a recent NWP forecast, a so-called first guess. Because the data assimilation system knows about interrelations of different model variables, assimilation of for example a pressure observation, will adjust not only the pressure, but also wind and temperature. Precisely how much weight to give different types of observations, and how far to distribute their effect in the first guess field, is deduced statistically. The analysis is the maximum likelihood estimate of the state of the atmosphere, provided the statistical information is correct.

 

An NWP analysis is based on vastly more information than available from any single observing system. Data from ground, aircraft, bouys, ship, satellites, radiosondes, etc. are all combined to adjust the first guess field. As a consequence the quality of an analysis is much better than what can be obtained from gridding, or treating in other ways, data from a single or a few observing systems.

 

In the plot, the red curve is based on the average 2 m temperatures north of 80 degree North, from the twice daily ECWMF analyses. These are gradually becoming better and more detailed, as the NWP model system at ECMWF is improved with time. That is why the name shift with time (e.g. from T799 to T1279 in year 2010).

 

The green curve is based on ERA40 data for the period 1958 to 2002. ERA40 data are in fact analyses, made in the same way as above, but done as a hind-cast, using a fixed version of the NWP model, and spending time on carefully validating and eventually correct or remove all observations found to be in error, before the data assimilation. These, so-called "re-analysis", data represent our best estimate of the properties of the atmosphere for the period they cover.

[Tom]

Midwest/Lakes are going to torch one last time next week...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

 

Then...hopefully this somewhat comes into fruition later in August...for fun, wouldn't that be a sweet map if we fast forward to Winter???  Haha...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

[Tom]

Here is a 4-day total of rainfall for the local area from July 21-24th...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/pastevents/2016/Jul24/TotalPrecipJuly21-24.PNG

[Geos]

Check out the dewpoint readings in the local region...are you serious???  Low 80's are just insane...

 

 

 

 

Better not be in a boat during a storm!

 

 

 

 

Local rains in the Chicago area from last night...

 

 

 

Wow, that picture is awesome!

[Tom]

Latest JMA weeklies suggest near normal temps over the next week, but then signal NW Flow Week 2-4.  The anticyclone seems to want to stay put near the 4 corners region.  Meanwhile, a trough will center near the Upper Lakes and Northeast.

[Tom]

I was up early this morning spreading some commercial grade "weed and feed" on my lawn.  Storms are now just starting to flare up and producing some heavy local rains.  This years weeds have been a big nuisance!  

[NEJeremy]

We've been pretty dry again lately. Lawn is back to turning brown in spots. If I remember correctly, I've had only 1/2" of rain since the 11th. It looks like the airport had almost 2" on the 18th, but we were under 1/2" here. Had a 60% chance or rain in the forecast for last night, but we received nada.

[Tom]

Just an FYI, I started a August Thread...

[westMJim]

Yesterday was cool and damp here in Grand Rapids and with a high of only 71° that is the coolest high here since June 8^th when we only had a high of 69° and yesterday was the 3^rd coldest high so far this summer with the coldest being 63° on June 7^th and then that 69° on June 8^th Also of note is that so far Grand Rapids has received 5.62” of rain and over in Muskegon they have gotten 5.88” of rain and that is the most rain there for a July since 6.63” fell way back in 1952.  So in our area it has not been a dry July. This morning here at my house its cloudy and a cool 68°

[Tom]

As WestJim noted, it has been a wet July for most of us on this sub forum, even our lone member down in OK.  Yesterday, marked the first day where the average temp at ORD begins it's downward trend.  The average temp is now 83F

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nwscr/30dPDeptNWSCR.png

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nwssr/30dPDeptNWSSR.png

 

 

 

As we close out July today, August looks to open wet and warm for a few days this week but a cooler and tranquil pattern sets in next weekend.

 

 

[jaster220]

I was up early this morning spreading some commercial grade "weed and feed" on my lawn.  Storms are now just starting to flare up and producing some heavy local rains.  This years weeds have been a big nuisance!  

 

Weeds love hot (and even better = hot and dry) so my lawn watering back in June's mini-drought seems to have worked to keep them at bay. Since July's huge turn around, my lawn hasn't looked better in quite a while.