July 2016 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

The upcoming weekend "cool" off and drier air is well-timed.  It will feel nice to step outside without breaking a sweat in 5 min!  Taste of Chicago opened today and runs through the weekend.  Should be plenty of crowds Fri-Sun especially with the superb weather. 

[Geos]

I'm glad for the rain, but this weather today was miserable. Dew point near 70 most of the day.

[Geos]

A bit off topic, but here's a look at super Typhoon Nepartak.

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/

[Tom]

A bit off topic, but here's a look at super Typhoon Nepartak.

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/

That storm is a beast...I'm actually working on some business with a guy in Taiwan and he says the whole island has been under alert for days already.  Just checked and there is mandatory evacuations for the entire island.

[Thunder98]

meanwhile here in drought island Michigan....

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/5Kf4tEQ.gif

 

http://i.imgur.com/zLBOJ2F.png

 

 

 

 

Blame Lake Michigan!

[Geos]

That storm is a beast...I'm actually working on some business with a guy in Taiwan and he says the whole island has been under alert for days already.  Just checked and there is mandatory evacuations for the entire island.

 

Looks like it will hit around daybreak, so the visible shot should be pretty impressive.

 

Cloudy day continues here. Not too much hope for any heavy rain today.

[gabel23]

I caught some video of an impressive shelf cloud approaching my area from Tuesday night. This storm produced an impressive lightning show and uprooted trees in columbus. 

IMG4_0800.MOV

[gabel23]

I caught some video of an impressive shelf cloud approaching my area from Tuesday night. This storm produced an impressive lightning show and uprooted trees in columbus. 

Some of my videos are too large so I'm going to have to edit them!

[gabel23]

https://www.facebook.com/gabel23/videos/pcb.10102502787465823/10102502777186423/?type=3&theater

 

https://www.facebook.com/gabel23/videos/pcb.10102502787465823/10102502777176443/?type=3&theater

 

Lighting show: https://www.facebook.com/gabel23/videos/pcb.10102502787465823/10102502777181433/?type=3&theater

 

Let me know if you guys can't see them! 

[Tom]

I-90 corridor is getting pounded by torrential rains...traffic is a standstill...

 

Edit: For that reason, a Flood Advisory has been hoisted:

 

 

 

Flood AdvisoryFLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
611 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

ILC031-080115-
/O.NEW.KLOT.FA.Y.0027.160707T2311Z-160708T0115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COOK IL-
611 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 610 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTH
SIDE OF CHICAGO...INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS HUMBOLDT PARK AND LOGAN
SQUARE. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CITY VIADUCTS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CHICAGO...MONTROSE HARBOR...LINCOLN PARK...NAVY PIER...LOGAN SQUARE...
HUMBOLDT PARK AND LAKEVIEW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

&&

LAT...LON 4189 8761 4188 8764 4189 8773 4195 8772
4196 8764 4194 8764 4193 8763 4192 8763
4191 8762 4190 8762 4190 8760

[Geos]

Got a couple of light showers, but not enough for measurable technically.

 

Clouds held the temp down in the upper 70s today.

 

Some videos of the typhoon.

 

https://youtu.be/ea7csTayubs

 

https://youtu.be/mjMB72QCZww

 

View from the ISS

[Tom]

Here is a beautiful shot from the iconic Havasupai Falls in Arizona...this is def in my bucket list

 

http://images.nationalgeographic.com/wpf/media-live/photos/000/952/cache/havasu-falls-rainbow_95214_990x742.jpg

[Tom]

The air is so thick and humid right now...71F Dewpoint and temp at 79F...lowering humidity levels throughout the day.  Looking forward to a pleasant weekend.  Gotta say, we have been spoiled this summer with a string of near perfect weekends.  It could rain all it wants during the week, keep my weekends free of rain and the intense humidity!

[Geos]

The air is so thick and humid right now...71F Dewpoint and temp at 79F...lowering humidity levels throughout the day.  Looking forward to a pleasant weekend.  Gotta say, we have been spoiled this summer with a string of near perfect weekends.  It could rain all it wants during the week, keep my weekends free of rain and the intense humidity!

 

I think this atmosphere is ready to produce storms. It's really getting dark up this way.

[Tom]

Both EPS/GEFS are agreeing on what could be a longer duration heat wave for the central CONUS just after Day 10.  This also fits with our LRC pattern and the fact that the jet stream reaches its lowest peak right around the end of July/Aug period.  I'm concerned that this may be exacerbating our farmers in the corn belt regions.  Hoping we will get enough rains in between but the pattern may lock in for a while.

[Geos]

Back to low dew points. 85/56 currently. Winds gusting around 25 mph out there this afternoon.

[Tom]

All signs pointing towards a Plains Torch developing later next week into the weekend.  A string of 100F+ days is on the table if this ridge pops and holds.  Any saving grace near the Lakes may be the Ring of Fire pattern that will prob develop on the outskirts of the forecasted heat dome.

[Tom]

This is impressive to see...both GEFS/EPS ensembles seeing 594-597dm Heights by next Sunday into the following week.  I've been eye -balling this period to produce some extreme heat.  Full blown Summa Time heat may be on the way...

 

EPS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016070912/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016070912/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

 

 

 

 

GEFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016070912/gfs-ens_z500a_us_38.png

[Hawkeye]

We had a surprise wet Sunday.  The Minnesota mcs refused to follow orders, instead holding together well down into Iowa.  I ended up with 0.69".  Attention now turns to Tuesday/Wednesday.

[Geos]

It was nice to have a below normal weekend and not having it be from rainy weather. 

Got a little humid late in the day today, but overall the dew points were low.

[Tom]

It was nice to have a below normal weekend and not having it be from rainy weather. 

Got a little humid late in the day today, but overall the dew points were low.

Ya, I really felt the humidity increase aournd 7 or 8pm.  Almost wanted to put the A/C on so I could sleep well...I prob should have!  Get ready for a humid and hot week.  Hope we score some storms, but they may fizzle out as they approach us here tomorrow afternoon, but hopefully the storms that form on Wednesday produce a good soaking.

[Tom]

Seems like the same areas have been on the receiving end of where the storms have been setting up...esp IA, I think their crop is growing fast at a time of season when the crop pollinates. 

 

Latest 12z NAM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016071112/namconus_apcpn_ncus_26.png

[Hawkeye]

There's no surprise mcs to keep us cooler today.  It's up to 87/76 at noon.

[Tom]

There's no surprise mcs to keep us cooler today.  It's up to 87/76 at noon.

Wow, that is a crazy high dewpoint...do you have a lot of crops in your region???

[Tom]

If the GFS is right, days of high temps 100-110F are no fun through the extended.  I believe this will be the hottest stretch of summer heat though.  Midwest/Lakes may get some relief with storms riding the northern tier of the building heat dome.

[Hawkeye]

Wow, that is a crazy high dewpoint...do you have a lot of crops in your region???

 

Iowa is nothing but crops outside the city limit.

[Tom]

Summa time Torch anyone???  I fear that something close to the extreme of 2012 is on the way in the central Plains through the end of July.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Thunder98]

Very high Dew points in Sioux Falls, South Dakota!

 

[Geos]

Very high Dew points in Sioux Falls, South Dakota!

 

sfhumid.PNG

 

That's crazy humid!

 

Hit 90° here today, but the dew point was a more modest 67-70°.

[Geos]

Going to be in Washington State for awhile starting next week trying to see if I can land a entry level job in my field out there. Might be back in the Midwest by late autumn if things don't go well. Seen work in my field around here, but it's pretty much all mid to senior level positions.

You'll still see me around often enough, I'll just be making posts in the western threads a bit more.

[Hawkeye]

Going to be in Washington State for awhile starting next week trying to see if I can land a entry level job in my field out there. Might be back in the Midwest by late autumn if things don't go well. Seen work in my field around here, but it's pretty much all mid to senior level positions.

You'll still see me around often enough, I'll just be making posts in the western threads a bit more.

 

Good luck.  It sucks to lose an active forum member to another region.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up yet another 0.95" of rain overnight.  I don't expect we'll see any redevelopment later.

[Tom]

Going to be in Washington State for awhile starting next week trying to see if I can land a entry level job in my field out there. Might be back in the Midwest by late autumn if things don't go well. Seen work in my field around here, but it's pretty much all mid to senior level positions.

You'll still see me around often enough, I'll just be making posts in the western threads a bit more.

Good luck in your endeavors.  Hope it works out for you.  I hear Washington is a gorgeous state with beauty as far as the eye can see, esp up in the mountains.  

 

The line of storms heading our way is in a weakening state.  Wasn't expecting much from it anyway.  Hoping to get some good storms later today or at night.

 

06z 4km NAM showing some isolated cells popping later this evening in N IL...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016071206/nam4km_ref_frzn_ncus_19.png

[Geos]

Good luck.  It sucks to lose an active forum member to another region.

 

Thanks Hawkeye.

Maybe after I get some experience elsewhere, I'll end up back in the Great Lakes/Midwest somewhere. I always liked central and northern WI for its beautiful landscapes.

[Geos]

Good luck in your endeavors.  Hope it works out for you.  I hear Washington is a gorgeous state with beauty as far as the eye can see, esp up in the mountains.  

 

The line of storms heading our way is in a weakening state.  Wasn't expecting much from it anyway.  Hoping to get some good storms later today or at night.

 

06z 4km NAM showing some isolated cells popping later this evening in N IL...

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks Tom. Washington is beautiful state with some really interesting weather patterns and microclimates. Still been applying in CO, WI, and MN, but I think I'll land a entry level job out there and get some experience. 

I'll be up against the mountains east of Seattle to start with this summer. I will still be able to post reports from family that are here.

The el Nino winters are usually poor at producing snowfall down under 1000 ft there, but in la Nina winters it's quite the opposite.

 

Kind of sucks that complex didn't hold together last night. Things are really browning up. It looks like how the Pacific Northwest is in August or September after several weeks without much rain.

[Tom]

This coming Heat Wave is going to mean business.  Parts of NE/IA/KS may have days of 100F+ heat.  I can't imagine what the heat index will be with all that crop in farm country!

 

00z EPS begins the Heat Dome right over IA next Tuesday and expands it as we roll on through the following weekend.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016071300/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_8.png

 

Thursday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016071300/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_10.png

 

Friday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016071300/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

[Tom]

It's very interesting to see how cold the Arctic gets and western parts of Canada while we will broil in the heat!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016071300/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016071300/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

[Tom]

Hope the NAM-4km is right...need as much rain as possible before the pattern really dries out.  I actually put together a rain collection system off of my gutters so I can collect as much natural rain as possible so I can keep it Organic!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016071312/nam4km_ref_frzn_ncus_14.png

[Geos]

Wow, looks like the Midwest will bake as the West Coast really cools off. Going to be a big switch going from here to there.

 

Clouding up here now. Would be really nice to have some good storms tonight before I take off tomorrow. I know it doesn't storm too much in western Washington.

[Tom]

Wow, looks like the Midwest will bake as the West Coast really cools off. Going to be a big switch going from here to there.

 

Clouding up here now. Would be really nice to have some good storms tonight before I take off tomorrow. I know it doesn't storm too much in western Washington.

Your leaving in the perfect time to avoid the heat and humidity!  I bet your happy about that, huh???  Haven't seen a full blown heat wave since 2012 so I think we are due.  If I recall, ORD averages a 100F day every 3 years so we are over due. We will come close to hitting that mark before this month is out I think.