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July 2016 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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The PHX area was hit hard by a microburst last night with torrential rains.  Nearly 2" of rain fell in less than 1 hour from a very slow moving severe cell.  Check out these shots from a chopper...

 

CnsEe37VIAISouv.jpg

 

CnsoeTpVYAE9IzU.jpg

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@ PHX pics

 

When I first glimpsed them, thought it was a TOG or a Nuke!  Then realized neither made any sense. Still a crazy sight. Talk about the heavens opening up! Sheesh  :o

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ PHX pics

 

When I first glimpsed them, thought it was a TOG or a Nuke!  Then realized neither made any sense. Still a crazy sight. Talk about the heavens opening up! Sheesh  :o

Its spectacular, right???  I absolutely love the Monsoon season out there in the valley.  Conditions look ripe right now as the wind trajectory from the developing Anticyclone tugs moisture up from the Pacific and GOM.  I almost feel like heading out there next week after my nieces b day party this weekend and enjoy the scenic beauty from the billowing cumulonimbus clouds.

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In other news, a summer time Winter Storm Warning has been issued for parts of the Brook Range in AK...

 

 

 

Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
359 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

AKZ206-200200-
/O.NEW.PAFG.WS.W.0007.160719T1400Z-160720T2000Z/
NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...ANAKTUVUK PASS...ATIGUN PASS...GALBRAITH LAKE...
SAGWON...FRANKLIN BLUFFS
359 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON
AKDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS
MORNING TO NOON AKDT WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATION...ABOVE 3500 FEET EAST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY.

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

 

 

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It has mostly been a wet July for the corn belt...everyone from N IL/S WI and points east have been missing the rains where its needed.  Lawns are becoming brown and bit dry.  Hoping for a storm or two over the next couple days before the atmosphere becomes capped.

 

july1.png?w=640

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The trend in the CFSv2 is for a cooler and wetter August for the heartland as well as parts of the Lakes.  This would fit the LRC pattern as we will be heading into the "wettest" part of the LRC cycle when we flip the calendar into August.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201608.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201608.gif

 

 

The end to the heat is in site...just gotta get through this weekend as the ridge retrogrades west and a NW Flow aloft starts developing by Sunday which will ignite storms along the "Ring of Fire".  A more seasonal, if not, below normal pattern may set up by mid/late next week.

 

00z Euro suggests a much anticipated cool down later next week!  Fits the cycling wx pattern.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016072000/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

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It has mostly been a wet July for the corn belt...everyone from N IL/S WI and points east have been missing the rains where its needed.  Lawns are becoming brown and bit dry.  Hoping for a storm or two over the next couple days before the atmosphere becomes capped.

 

july1.png?w=640

 

Kinda small map, but I believe it is showing mby around the 1.5 to 2" shading which is a massive improvement over the (6) weeks from about mid-May to July 1st when totals were on the order of .7" the entire stretch. 

 

Good news is, the month's not over and as you said, the heat dome may bring us a side benefit stormy day or two. We're by no means "moist" in Marshall, but its so much better than a month ago!

 

Edit: Oh, and that map delineates nicely (yellow shaded) where that cell Sunday night tracked right along the I-94 corridor ;)  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Dew point map. Insane.

 

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

It's fascinating how crops can precipitate moisture back into the air causing higher dewpoints.

 

Looking forward to the pattern change Week 1-2...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

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@ Jaster/WestJim, I think you guys will be in a good spot to get some beneficial rains overnight tomorrow.  Looks like a squall line forms from the north and heads south down LM.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2016072012/wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_ncus_45.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2016072012/wrf-arw_ref_frzn_ncus_40.png

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Already at a soupy 81F with a thick, humid airmass (77F dewpoint)....hope that line of storms in Wisco can hold together and make it down here by mid afternoon.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/MKX/N0Q/MKX.N0Q.20160721.1324.gif

 

 

It's packing quite the punch with winds of 70-80mph and hail.

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The latest JMA Weeklies indicate the shift in the wx pattern Week 2, and probably through the opening couple weeks of August.  A signal for a slight trough near the Midwest/Lakes region, albeit minimal, it should be welcomed along with the precipitation.

 

It's interesting to see that a -NAO pattern has evolved near Greenland since July 1st.  The JMA see's it continuing through Week 3 & 4.  Suggesting, the CFSv2, may have the right idea as we approach Fall/Winter???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

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Looks like the area back home finally got a good rain today. My parents were saying things are looking really burnt out these days.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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@ Jaster/WestJim, I think you guys will be in a good spot to get some beneficial rains overnight tomorrow.  Looks like a squall line forms from the north and heads south down LM.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2016072012/wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_ncus_45.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2016072012/wrf-arw_ref_frzn_ncus_40.png

 

Just got an (almost severe) cell hit us here in St. Joe and for a few min's the deluge looked more like a LES squall. This is great as it's been a much wetter July than June but the immediate lakeshore's been skipped a lot. Now if it can hold together for several counties inland mby will get yet another decent dose this month.  :)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hey all.  I was in the hospital for a few days, but now I'm back following the weather.  I'm kinda glad we missed out on the severe weather and heavy rain while I was away from my home/computer.  It is truly awful out there today.  The heat index has been well into the 110s all afternoon.  If I was 100% healthy I might try mowing my neighbor's long grass this evening, but I'm still a little weak so there's no way I could do that.

 

We've had plenty of rain this summer, but we could still use an inch after this heat.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I don't remember ever seeing heat index of 120.

 

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

It must feel atrocious out there.  I can't even imagine how it feels to stand out there near a corn field!

 

 

Hey all.  I was in the hospital for a few days, but now I'm back following the weather.  I'm kinda glad we missed out on the severe weather and heavy rain while I was away from my home/computer.  It is truly awful out there today.  The heat index has been well into the 110s all afternoon.  If I was 100% healthy I might try mowing my neighbor's long grass this evening, but I'm still a little weak so there's no way I could do that.

 

We've had plenty of rain this summer, but we could still use an inch after this heat.

Glad your back in the saddle and feeling better.  Some higher rez models have storms nearby Saturday morning.

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Looks like CPC has issued their August Outlook and pretty much is siding with the trends in the CFSv2 model.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_temp.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_prcp.gif

 

 

 

 

CFSv2 trends...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201608.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201608.gif

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Latest HRRR model shows that line of severe storms near MSN making its way towards N IL.  We missed this mornings line that hit MI, hope to see some beneficial rains later tonight.  Parts of NE/IA may get in on the action as well.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016072120/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_7.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016072120/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_9.png

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Nasty bow echo heading towards N IL....the clouds from the distance while I took my jog/sprints were getting dark.  I love summer time nights like these!

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20160722.0007.gif

 

SPC just issued a brand new Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of N IL...

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0407_radar.gif

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Wisconsin/Illinois mcs pushed an outflow boundary westward through eastern Iowa tonight and the storm bubble-up has followed.  I may get some good rain when I expected none.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Last nights storms brought area wide beneficial rains which soaked into the soil quite well as I witness a few minutes ago as I strolled around my back yard.  We were getting dry up towards the norther burbs and near W IL.  A general 1-2" of rain fell in those drought stricken areas.  Should be back to normal and if more storms fire up Fri/Sat, even better.

 

Cn5yHsGWcAA9sDm.jpg

 

 

Some cool lightning strikes once again.  The Cloud to Ground explosion is fantastic.  This one struck in S WI...

 

Cn8Jmk2UMAAsZA2.jpg

 

 

 

Downtown Chicago double strike...

 

Cn8L0n-VYAACYPj.jpg

 

 

 

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