Jump to content

July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Recommended Posts

Hello everyone. It's July now! Brief intermission for summer 2016?? Looks like it, models are not giving up on a major cool-down through much of July. It may be another month before I get more storms unfortunately.

 

Now here's some local stats put together on June 2016. The Mean is nothing impressive making #17 warmest though the High did manage #8, just a tad warmer than 2006. Even with the mid month gloom, things were somewhat warm.

 

Klamath Falls (KLMT) - June 2016 Temperature Stats
 
Avg High: 2337 (77.9) (#8 warmest) (just above June 2006 Mean 77.7)
Normal High: 2221 (74.0)
Avg Low: 1306 (43.5)
Normal Low: 1271 (42.2)
Avg Total: 3643 (Mean 60.7) (#17 warmest) (almost matches 1957 Mean 60.8)
Normal Total: 3492 (Mean 58.2)
 
2 thunderstorm days in June. Both were very marginal at best. (06/07 and 06/17). A cold core storm on the 17th, well actually there was multiple pop-up cells but all produced only a few rumbles. The final cell only produced 1 flash/bolt, then weakened completely. But that did strike very close to the house and I had quite a startling bang out of it, shaking everything. Funny how I can get storms with too much lightning to count and nothing closer than 1-2 miles (like May 4th) and then a one-hit-wonder storm gives me my loudest thunder of 2016.
 
Not much happening lately, mostly some boring warmth. Though I have tried some new things last few days, got up really early so I could take some 6-7am walks. Super refreshing! This is about the only time of the year I can do this without wearing any long sleeves or jeans. Another aspect that completes the experience is I am usually the only person walking around in downtown K-Falls. A few streets get regular traffic but I can name a long list of streets here where I am the only human being found ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What is the earliest we can even realistically get snow in our climate? A few years ago I had a "freak" snow event of about an inch or a tad less in early to mid October.

Feels cold enough for snow right now...only thing lacking is moisture.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Feels cold enough for snow right now...only thing lacking is moisture.

Really?

 

It's a perfect here. Warm and sort of humid. We have been outside all evening.

 

Last I checked it was still 70 with a dewpoint of 58.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really?

 

It's a perfect here. Warm and sort of humid. We have been outside all evening.

 

Last I checked it was still 70 with a dewpoint of 58.

Cloudy and 65 degrees here. Would be still around 80 in Chelan at this time of the evening. Was so nice!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cloudy and 65 degrees here. Would be still around 80 in Chelan at this time of the evening. Was so nice!

 

Yeah... warm evenings are the best.     I think today was just about the perfect summer day here.  

 

Not a hot day... lots of afternoon sun and a high of 77 but with a dewpoint high enough (close to 60) to make the evening perfectly comfortable as well.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What is the earliest we can even realistically get snow in our climate? A few years ago I had a "freak" snow event of about an inch or a tad less in early to mid October.

 

Realistically mid October is the earliest we can get snow here.  SEA supposedly recorded a trace in September 1972, but that could have just been ice pellets.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The current lack of solar activity is rapidly becoming a big story.  Over a week since the last sunspot was seen and we are still years from the projected solar minimum.  The x-ray flux and 10cm flux continue to slowly decline.  This is looking more likely to be the deepest minimum since the early 1800s now.  Let's hope the theories about deep solar mins correlating with cold in the NW are proven true!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Realistically mid October is the earliest we can get snow here.  SEA supposedly recorded a trace in September 1972, but that could have just been ice pellets.

 

I'm surprised that Seattle and metro can have snow that early. The earliest snow (both wet and sticking) I've recorded during my last 6 years here was 10/05/2011. There is word around that we have snow in September and June but have yet to see any of that. I'm going with the idea that snow earlier than October here is fairly rare, as well as snow later than mid-late May in my neck of the woods, and most likely just 1 day events out of both those months. We have such vast differences in climate and geography so I thought that was interesting.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The current lack of solar activity is rapidly becoming a big story.  Over a week since the last sunspot was seen and we are still years from the projected solar minimum.  The x-ray flux and 10cm flux continue to slowly decline.  This is looking more likely to be the deepest minimum since the early 1800s now.  Let's hope the theories about deep solar mins correlating with cold in the NW are proven true!

 

 

1889 was also in a deep quiet period for the solar activity.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Realistically mid October is the earliest we can get snow here.  SEA supposedly recorded a trace in September 1972, but that could have just been ice pellets.

SEA had lows of 44 and 47 on the two days in September 1972 where they recorded a trace, and they also reported thunderstorms on those days, so it was hail. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEA had lows of 44 and 47 on the two days in September 1972 where they recorded a trace, and they also reported thunderstorms on those days, so it was hail. 

 

Kind of interesting that SEA did drop to 35 at one point in Sept 1972.  That was an exceptional month.  Snow in Sept would be pretty much impossible here though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm surprised that Seattle and metro can have snow that early. The earliest snow (both wet and sticking) I've recorded during my last 6 years here was 10/05/2011. There is word around that we have snow in September and June but have yet to see any of that. I'm going with the idea that snow earlier than October here is fairly rare, as well as snow later than mid-late May in my neck of the woods, and most likely just 1 day events out of both those months. We have such vast differences in climate and geography so I thought that was interesting.

 

October can get cold some years.  1935, 1971, 1984, and a couple of others did record some lowland snow.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest model runs continue to show a nearly endless flow of cool air flowing down the coast of BC and into the far NW.  Payback has begun.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For Timmy_Supercell. Mother Nature's own firework display in the DC area tonight. Actually saw a Sprite/Red Jet but it occurred to the left of the camera. :(

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For Timmy_Supercell. Mother Nature's own firework display in the DC area tonight. Actually saw a Sprite/Red Jet but it occurred to the left of the camera. :(

 

 

I was just reading that sprites and other normally rare phenomenon occur more frequently during periods of very low solar activity.  It doesn't take long apparently...

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest model runs continue to show a nearly endless flow of cool air flowing down the coast of BC and into the far NW.  Payback has begun.

 

 

What was that 8-month of period of seemingly endless rain we went through starting last fall?   Worst winter ever in terms of gloom and persistent precipitation here.   Also the wettest winter ever at SEA and PDX.      That was joy.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What was that 8-month of period of seemingly endless rain we went through starting last fall?   Worst winter ever in terms of gloom and persistent precipitation here.   Also the wettest winter ever at SEA and PDX.      That was joy.    

 

More like 5 month. And then you got a very warm and overall dry spring.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The last several years have been very warm/ridgy across NW North America. Just statistically speaking, that's going to swing the other way, probably sooner rather than later.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually 7 months. It stopped raining as much after April.

 

SEA was wetter than normal in October thanks to a couple potent storms, but more than half the days that month did not have measurable precipitation. Pretty average October in that respect - plenty of Octobers have had more rainy days.

 

Nov-Mar was very wet with not a lot of dry breaks.

 

April was drier than normal throughout the region, and SEA only saw measurable rain on 9 days.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEA was wetter than normal in October thanks to a couple potent storms, but more than half the days that month did not have measurable precipitation. Pretty average October in that respect - plenty of Octobers have had more rainy days.

 

Nov-Mar was very wet with not a lot of dry breaks.

 

April was drier than normal throughout the region, and SEA only saw measurable rain on 9 days.

I'm not talking about SEA though. :lol:

 

It's a nice cool morning with partly blue skies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS ensemble indicates below normal temps for the entire first half of July now.  It would be awesome to pull off a below normal July...there have been so few this century.  The tide has certainly turned now as the colder ENSO has taken control of the atmosphere.  I continue to like our chance for the coldest weather so far this century to occur in the NW between now and 2020.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The WRF is showing dps dropping into the 40s tomorrow.  Should be quite refreshing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Could somebody provide a link for the site that shows SST anomaly changes for the past week and or other time frames?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

 

 

Nino regions warming again overall.  I thought it was favorable for major cooling starting about a week ago?

 

I am still hopeful for a weak Nina.    As I have mentioned... I think that is more favorable for us this coming winter for blocking and cold.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Could somebody provide a link for the site that shows SST anomaly changes for the past week and or other time frames?

Here's another: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/index.php

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nino regions warming again overall. I thought it was favorable for major cooling starting about a week ago?

 

I am still hopeful for a weak Nina. As I have mentioned... I think that is more favorable for us this coming winter for blocking and cold.

They did until recently, and significant cooling was observed. Now antecedent conditions favor warming (CCKW passage), before the next round of cooling.

 

I think you're putting too much emphasis on shorter term, intraseasonal fluctuations in wind stress.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They did until recently, and significant cooling was observed. Now antecedent conditions favor warming (CCKW passage), before the next round of cooling.

 

You're putting too much emphasis on shorter term, intraseasonal fluctuations in wind stress.

 

 

Ahhh... that makes sense.

 

Where do you think this Nina ends up during this coming winter in terms of strength?    Is a weak Nina still possible?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nino regions warming again overall. I thought it was favorable for major cooling starting about a week ago?

 

I am still hopeful for a weak Nina. As I have mentioned... I think that is more favorable for us this coming winter for blocking and cold.

Oh oh...is our awesomely blocky winter full of wintertime fun featuring -18 850 temps with endless supplies of moisture streaming right into western wa (Oregon gets screwed like the good old days) and everyone (in WA) getting along on the forum as they enjoy frolicking in the deep powdery snow...now in jeopardy?

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh oh...is our awesomely blocky winter full of wintertime fun featuring -18 850 temps with endless supplies of moisture streaming right into western wa (Oregon gets screwed like the good old days) and everyone (in WA) getting along on the forum as they enjoy frolicking in the deep powdery snow...now in jeopardy?

 

 

No... that is a lock.   Take it to the bank!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ahhh... that makes sense.

 

Where do you think this Nina ends up during this coming winter in terms of strength? Is a weak Nina still possible?

It's possible. I'm sticking with -1.1C to -1.3C (single-month ONI), more out of stubbornness than anything else. There should be a run of strong trade wind surges later this summer through autumn, in my opinion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No... that is a lock. Take it to the bank!

With the QBO appearing to have skipped over it's negative phase, we should have a +QBO this winter, which now favors much more in the way of NPAC based blocking. So I'd actually agree with this, as of now.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's possible. I'm sticking with -1.1C to -1.3C (single-month ONI), more out of stubbornness than anything else. There should be a run of strong trade wind surges later this summer through autumn, in my opinion.

 

 

Out of stubbornness meaning you think it could be weaker?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...