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July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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PDX is +2.5 through yesterday.

 

The -10F comment was pretty silly, but it definitely looks like a solidly cool period upcoming.

 

 

Ahhh... I always forget to toggle down to Portland on the CF6 page.    Seattle is on the top on their page but Astoria in on the top on the PDX NWS page.

 

I am not even sure this is a solidy cool period for PDX southward.   Looks pretty close to normal most days.  Definitely a solidly below normal period farther north and across the east side of the mountains.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Ahhh... I always forget to toggle down to Portland on the CF6 page.    Seattle is on the top on their page but Astoria in on the top on the PDX NWS page.

 

I am not even sure this is a solidy cool period for PDX southward.   Looks pretty close to normal most days.  Definitely a solidly below normal period farther north and across the east side of the mountains.   

 

It will be cool. Low-mid 70s is cool for July down this way. You are just being a Tim about it.

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Models showed this front dissolving quickly this morning and skies clearing for the last several days.

 

Here is late this afternoon per the WRF:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016070312/images_d3/intcld.12.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016070312/images_d3/wa_tsfc.12.0000.gif

 

 

 

The WRF does very well unless there is an inversion in place. And we clearly have scoured out the inversion from earlier this week.

I was just going by the NWS forecast which did not look promising. Thanks for the good news!!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It will be cool. Low-mid 70s is cool for July down this way. You are just being a Tim about it.

 

 

Could be close to 80 on Wednesday and Thursday down there.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Could be close to 80 on Wednesday and Thursday down there.   

 

Even if it did, just touching average with other days surrounding it several degrees below average would make for a coolish week overall.

 

Or maybe it won't be cool at all. Maybe the models are way overdoing everthing it will be right around average. Unlikely, but regardless, a huge improvement from the last few summers. And according to some the troughing is just getting started. :)

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Even if it did, just touching average with other days surrounding it several degrees below average would make for a coolish week overall.

 

Or maybe it won't be cool at all. Maybe the models are way overdoing everthing it will be right around average. Unlikely, but regardless, a huge improvement from the last few summers. And according to some the troughing is just getting started. :)

 

Probably a coolish week overall.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GFS/GEFS and 00z EPS continue troughing through d15, probably beyond. Another overturning anticyclonic breaker depicted on the longer range 00z EPS.

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I think that I adjusted quicker.

 

Early July troughing certainly happening despite being told I was completely wrong for the last couple weeks and the big crash would happen around 7/15.

 

The second half July will average warmer than the first half... the opposite of the prediction for a crash by 7/15. Remember to bring this post up at the end of July. :)

Thing is, slow bias aside, I've been calling for a cool/troughy July since April. You were thinking the opposite until quite recently. So, I think I had the right idea.

 

I can't believe you're trying to spin this into a victory for yourself. It's kinda gross, dude.

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Thing is, slow bias aside, I've been calling for a cool/troughy July since April. You were thinking the opposite until quite recently. So, I think I had the right idea.

 

I can't believe you're trying to spin this into a victory for yourself. It's kinda gross, dude.

The really bizarre thing to watch is when he tries to play up the early July troughy period in one breath to prove his forecasting prowess, then downplay it the next to troll cool weather lovers/soothe his biases. It's almost like he has split into two people.

 

Maybe the other personality needs its own account just to keep things from being so confusing.

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Also, I'm very much aware that my intraseasonal forecasts have been biased slow, and I'm working on it. I'm usually better at longer ranges than shorter ones, as my understanding of higher frequency forcings and potential subsequent systematic feedbacks is poor relative to my understanding of those on lower frequencies. We all have weaknesses, and I'm not afraid to be straightforward about mine.

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The really bizarre thing to watch is when he tries to play up the early July troughy period in one breath to prove his forecasting prowess, then downplay it the next to troll cool weather lovers/soothe his biases. It's almost like he has split into two people.

 

Maybe the other personality needs its own account just to keep things from being so confusing.

It's especially irritating considering that whenever I'd share my long range thoughts on summer, he'd disagree, lash out and fight me, claim I "don't understand PNW climate", etc. So, to see him reverse course and claim he had it right all along just blows my mind.

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Thing is, slow bias aside, I've been calling for a cool/troughy July since April. You were thinking the opposite until quite recently. So, I think I had the right idea.

I can't believe you're trying to spin this into a victory for yourself. It's kinda gross, dude.

Gross??

 

 

I have been thinking for the last few weeks that an early July troughing period followed by a warmer and drier pattern with no real troughing in the second half of July would be a clear win over your forecast. We love to compete.

 

We will see what happens. It's not gross to compete. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Gross??

 

I have been thinking for the last few weeks that an early July troughing period followed by a warmer and drier pattern with no real troughing in the second half of July would be a clear win over your forecast. We love to compete.

 

We will see what happens. It's not gross to compete. :)

For months, you were lashing out me for predicting a cool/troughy July. It was exhausting and time consuming to try and reason with you. Do you honestly think that I (or the forum, for that matter) will forget those cringeworthy battles?

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For months, you were lashing out me for predicting a cool/troughy July. It was exhausting and time consuming to try and reason with you. Do you honestly think that I (or the forum, for that matter) will forget those cringeworthy battles?

I certainly haven't forgotten.

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Whatever, I'm not continuing this. Let's see how the month turns out first. Karma.

Clearly it is going to be cool/warm/troughy first half/ridgy first half/nice/troughy second half/blowtorch/years with 1's, 9's and 8's-esque/did I mention nice?/slightly above/below normal/and most importantly, nice.

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12z Euro is not looking great for 80 degree weather Wed/Thu.

 

The trough dropping in after that looks like a monster for early-mid July. Much deeper/cooler than the current one.

 

 

Yeah... the ULL next weekend has been looking impressive for a few runs now.  Should be significant rain as well.

 

Given the troughing in the first part of July... its almost a given that the second half of July will be much nicer.

 

Lets hope this cycle of troughing is over by next week as the ECMWF shows.   

 

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-l1tONY.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... the ULL next weekend has been looking impressive for a few runs now. Should be significant rain as well.

 

Given the troughing in the first part of July... its almost a given that the second half of July will be much nicer.

 

Lets hope this cycle of troughing is over by next week as the ECMWF shows.

 

 

You can hope away. I think it would be fun if troughing stuck around most of the month. We're due.

 

Agreed that the next system is looking good for some rainfall.

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Yeah... the ULL next weekend has been looking impressive for a few runs now. Should be significant rain as well.

 

Given the troughing in the first part of July... its almost a given that the second half of July will be much nicer.

 

Lets hope this cycle of troughing is over by next week as the ECMWF shows.

 

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-l1tONY.png

Actually, the entire pattern is about to retrograde again, assuming the d10 solution is accurate. Note the easterly momentum flux between 20-30N/90-130W and departing WAFs. Result would be renewed offshore height rises and more western troughing a few days later.

 

The WAFs from the CCKW-induced tropical cyclones in the EPAC force the NPAC anticyclone poleward into the antecedent NAM anticyclone, forming pseudo rex-block over the NPAC surf zone boundary. Initially that leads to flow reversal/vorticity enhancement south of the Aleutians, but with the aforementioned forcing departing, heights rise underneath and into the void between the anticyclones, splitting the trapped vorticity in two, with one piece sliding into the PNW, the other retrograding into the NWPAC.

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Actually, the entire pattern is about to retrograde again, assuming the d10 solution is accurate. Note the easterly momentum flux between 20-30N/90-130W and departing WAFs. Result would be renewed offshore height rises and more western troughing a few days later.

 

The WAFs from the CCKW-induced tropical cyclones in the EPAC force the NPAC anticyclone poleward into the antecedent NAM anticyclone, forming pseudo rex-block over the NPAC surf zone boundary. Initially that leads to flow reversal/vorticity enhancement south of the Aleutians, but with the aforementioned forcing departing, heights rise underneath and into the void between the anticyclones.

 

 

We will see... this is a pretty easy forecast based on our local history.    The second half of July will not be troughy here overall.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's summer guys... Whether it will be average or 10F below normal depends on something as fickle as the Marine Layer, not upper level patterns. So really we don't know whether 7/1-7/10 will end up average in Portland or 7F below normal and whatever the benchmark we used for Seattle, until we're halfway through the period. Here's a relevant PDX discussion.

 

Perhaps one of the trickiest parts of the Independence Day forecast -
and perhaps most relevant for those hoping to watch fireworks along
the coast - is in trying to determine whether or not the cool air
aloft behind today`s cold front will be enough to weaken and deepen
marine inversions to the point where the boundary layer is no longer
saturated enough for clouds.
If low clouds clear out along the coast
today and Monday, they may have a hard time re-forming at all for the
rest of the week. This would likely mean clear or partly cloudy skies
throughout the CWA Monday evening. Even if low clouds hang on along
the coast Monday afternoon and evening, ceilings should be rather
high due to the very deep marine layer.

As the upper low over BC slowly wobbles southward Mon-Tue, the air
mass aloft is expected to slowly cool through midweek. Even if low
clouds dissipate along the coast, 850 mb temps of +7 to +10 deg C
should keep inland valleys in the 70s for highs each day.
Weak
shortwaves rotating around the upper low may clip SW Washington with
a couple showers from time to time, mainly along the coast and in the
higher terrain. Otherwise, there could be a decent amount of sunshine
Mon/Tue, but with temps remaining mild to a little cool for this time
of year
. Weagle 

 

 

Anyway more likely than not it seems we will be closer to normal despite the troughiness in PDX. That could change if the marine layer sticks around.

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We will see... this is a pretty easy forecast based on our local history. The second half of July will not be troughy here overall.

What local history?

 

All of the short term pattern analogs for the upcoming progression suggest subsequent a retrogression (offshore height rises) is a near certainty, and this is exactly what should happen if long range ECMWF verifies.

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What local history? All of the short term pattern analogs for the upcoming progression suggest subsequent retrogression (offshore height rises) is a near certainty, and this is exactly what should happen if long range ECMWF verifies.

Local history strongly suggests that if the first part of July is troughy/cool/wet then the second part of the month will not be that way. Even in Nina years.

 

You will see. This is a pretty easy call without even looking at a map.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's summer guys... Whether it will be average or 10F below normal depends on something as fickle as the Marine Layer, not upper level patterns. So really we don't know whether 7/1-7/10 will end up average in Portland or 7F below normal and whatever the benchmark we used for Seattle, until we're halfway through the period. Here's a relevant PDX discussion.

 

Anyway more likely than not it seems we will be closer to normal despite the troughiness in PDX. That could change if the marine layer sticks around.

I think Weagle may be employing a bit of wishful thinking, but it is true that a cooler airmass aloft could actually inhibit the marine layer a bit, since it is largely dependent upon some sort of inversion being in place.

 

That said, if the next few days stay pretty clear that will probably allow nighttime lows to drop lower than they would in a very cloudy pattern.

 

I think 2-3 degrees below normal overall for PDX through the 7th or so is a pretty safe bet.

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Is "Local History" some sort of yuppie newsletter that you type up and pass out at New Seasons?

Right.

 

Even if the first half of July averages below normal and the second half above normal... I will still be wrong I guess!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Local history strongly suggests that if the first part of July is troughy/cool/wet then the second part of the month will not be that way. Even in Nina years.

 

You will see. This is a pretty easy call without even looking at a map.

I've already found several Julys that contradict this idea.

 

I'm not making any definitive statements until I get a better idea of how the EPAC forcing progresses, but I'd lean towards more troughing during the second half of July, possibly with a relatively brief reprieve in the middle as the wave cycles.

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I've already found several Julys that contradict this idea.

I'm not making any definitive statements until I get a better idea of how the EPAC forcing progresses, but I'd lean towards more troughing during the second half of July, possibly with a relatively brief reprieve in the middle as the wave cycles.

So if SEA and PDX average below normal for the first half of July and above normal the second half will you give me credit for being right? :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Something like JAS 1998 is real possibility as well given the timing so far this summer.

 

Do you seriously see this summer ending up that warm and humid, or are you just trolling?

 

Trying to get better at separating your trolls from your actual forecasts. 

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Do you seriously see this summer ending up that warm and humid, or are you just trolling?

 

Trying to get better at separating your trolls from your actual forecasts.

 

Yes I do actually. It's been humid so far.

 

Nina forcing did not prevent that from happening in 1998.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Right.

 

Even if the first half of July averages below normal and the second half above normal... I will still be wrong I guess!

 

I thought the first half of July may just average normal? Or if we are following 1998, well above normal! Which Tim is saying this?

 

You are so all over the place it is almost embarrassing. And everyone sees it but you.

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I thought the first half of July may just average normal? Or if we are following 1998, well above normal! Which Tim is saying this?

 

You are so all over the place it is almost embarrassing. And everyone sees it but you.

I have actually been very accurate overall and have adjusted well. You just love to dimiss everything I say. And will mock me absolutely either way.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Local history strongly suggests that if the first part of July is troughy/cool/wet then the second part of the month will not be that way. Even in Nina years.

 

You will see. This is a pretty easy call without even looking at a map.

Your July blowtorch was based off of history as well...

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