Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[Tom]

CPC has update their seasonal outlook and we begin with January...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t14.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p14.2c.gif

 

 

 

JFM period...strong signal for the OV/Lakes storm track to continue..

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t01.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p01.2c.gif

 

FMA...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t02.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p02.2c.gif

[Niko]

Anyone with new maps for future winter 2017 predictions? Curious to see if any changes are in the works.

[Niko]

I found one......this is from TWC:

 

 

 

[jaster220]

I found one......this is from TWC:

 

 

 

 

Hmm..keeps lower MI at or above normal. Looking more and more like a Wisconsin and west winter.

[Grizzcoat]

No way is IA going to be much below avg....

[Double D]

This is heading into a very disappointing winter imo.

[Tom]

This is heading into a very disappointing winter imo.

I have to agree with this, esp with the way the AO behaved in the Autumn you would think we would have more blocking this Winter.  Instead, Mother Nature said "nasso fast".  A very strong long term long wave ridge has become established in the middle of the country that has been a common theme this Winter and storm systems just weaken as the they head across the country except for the far northern tier.

 

Not looking pretty over the next 2+ weeks...time to take a long break

[OKwx2k4]

It's like sitting in hold'em poker with a really good hand but not seeing the only turn card that could hurt your hand. Lol. Do you go all in and hope for the best or fold?

[Andrew NE]

Always go all in! Lol

[OKwx2k4]

Always go all in! Lol

Lol. There's more truth than you may know in that answer.

[Andrew NE]

Haha. With a winter like we have had so far you got nothing to lose my friend. My glass is still half full for now.

[OKwx2k4]

Haha. With a winter like we have had so far you got nothing to lose my friend. My glass is still half full for now.

Mine too. I'd like to put up a couple of 4"+ events by seasons end. I think it's still possible. I've noticed the eastern pacific around Baja has been warming up steadily since around late November. That's usually a decent sign for things in the second half here but I've been wrong before.

[Niko]

So far, this winter is looking more like an El Nino type. Too many rain systems followed by colder temps, or snow changing to rain and warmer before it turns colder again behind the storm.  The only time I can say we had some real winter weather was from early December to right about Christmas. After that period, the weather began turning sloppy up until now. Curious ta see how the rest unfolds.

[OKwx2k4]

So far, this winter is looking more like an El Nino type. Too many rain systems followed by colder temps, or snow changing to rain and warmer before it turns colder again behind the storm. The only time I can say we had some real winter weather was from early December to right about Christmas. After that period, the weather began turning sloppy up until now. Curious ta see how the rest unfolds.

Going strictly off teleconnections and qbo it's almost as textbook as it gets for a weak Niña, +QBO, negative PNA. The negative PNA is what has really been screwing most of us. That looks to change going into February.

[Niko]

Going strictly off teleconnections and qbo it's almost as textbook as it gets for a weak Niña, +QBO, negative PNA. The negative PNA is what has really been screwing most of us. That looks to change going into February.

Lets hope so because once March rolls on in, my mode starts changing slowly to Spring.

[Tom]

That is what I'm thinking also. December will probably start off real nice and active for most of our members, then as the season wears on I think the west coast ridge becomes a dominant pattern and could very well over whelm the entire SE ridge. Feb/Mar could be an awesome second half and into Spring. This season is going to have some legs.

December def started off very active and wet/snowy for the 1st half of the month around the Midwest and Lakes but flipped big later in the month. Volatility prevailed and then the almighty Jan torch kicked in mid/late Jan.

 

The western ridge will mature mid/late Feb and into March. Hope we can score some snow before the season is over with!

[jaster220]

December def started off very active and wet/snowy for the 1st half of the month around the Midwest and Lakes but flipped big later in the month. Volatility prevailed and then the almighty Jan torch kicked in mid/late Jan.

 

The western ridge will mature mid/late Feb and into March. Hope we can score some snow before the season is over with!

 

You NEED snow buddy! I've managed 91% of normal and without all the torching, could give this winter an "A" but it's grade continues to drop as the stretch of brown ground days continue. Looking forward to sunny and 60º Saturday. Might be taking the fam to the windy city for the day if things work out.