Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[Tom]

New Pioneer model run per D'Aleo (WxBell) indicates a cold DJF centered directly over the lakes region. Stretches back to the Pacific Northwest and south through the central US, and SE US. Above normal into the Desert Southwest and California. I'd say this is a fair assumption at this time. If the waters near the Baja don't cool some I agree there's a decent risk of there being problems getting the cooler air this far south this winter. There's a high likelihood of there being a recurring ridge somewhere this winter. Just hoping it is not over me again this year.

 

Anybody see D'Aleo's recent post over the curious nature of the QBO? I believe it shines a great light on how winter failed for a lot of us last season. Probably more so than El Nino did, IMO. It was another of those things that I studied last year and should have given more weight to. I won't be making that mistake again.

Could you post a map???  I haven't subscribed to WxBell yet...I'll probably do it later this month.  What's his thinking on the QBO this year???

[OKwx2k4]

Could you post a map??? I haven't subscribed to WxBell yet...I'll probably do it later this month. What's his thinking on the QBO this year???

Can't post a map right now. About to start a poker tournament. Here's his closing statement on the QBO though. I'll try to get the map up later this afternoon.

 

"We await the July update to see if the easterlies resumed at higher levels and will follow if so whether it will push down quickly in a more normal fashion. otherwise the easterly phase at 30mb lasted only 1 month compared to 13 months the last cycle. Easterlies are usually stronger than westerly anomalies which makes this even more unusual. Solar flux is low - currently in the 80s (this month so far is 73.9 sfu) so an easterly QBO would point colder."

 

It's interesting because it sounds like it tried to flip but hesitated. Sounds like it should be flipping anytime.

 

 

Analog years used in the model update were 1998, 1960, and 2014 as primaries. 2002 and 2003 made the list as secondary analogs with another year or 2 thrown in.

[OKwx2k4]

Tried to get a map up but couldnt. I only post on mobile and I can't get it to let me do it.

[Tom]

One of NMME's products, the NASA Model, just updated their August outlook for the SON period...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

I like what its showing up towards the Archipelego Region in N Canada.  Of late, it has been getting cool up that way with summer snows and could possibly be a trend as we move towards Autumn.  Alaska and the west coast torch, probably a bit overdone in the SW I think bc I believe the Monsoon will be stronger than average this year, esp if the E PAC hurricane season kicks up.  Maybe it's trying to show that in the NW part of Mexico with a little cool pocket and along the Baja.  I wouldn't mind a near normal Autumn.  

 

The CFSv2 is showing a similar theme, but cooler along the EC...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd2.gif

 

 

 

 

On the flip side, the NASA is advertising a torch for Winter...make your own assumptions for this run...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season4.png

[OKwx2k4]

Anybody follow Firsthand Weather here? Their early winter forecast is out. Looks like a wedge of cold over our regions. I hope it's right.

[OKwx2k4]

JB tossed out another slough of winter analogs today.

 

"59-60,60-61,93-94,95-96,13-14,14-15 would be analogs that would wind up matching such a thing."

[Tom]

Anybody follow Firsthand Weather here? Their early winter forecast is out. Looks like a wedge of cold over our regions. I hope it's right.

I'll post his maps here for everyone to see...thanks for sharing...

 

Here is the link if you'd like to read:  http://firsthandweather.com/2105/early-2016-17-winter-forecast/

 

http://firsthandweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Early-2016-17-Winter-Forecast.png

[Tom]

Some of the early clues that I'm going to look out for as we head into September, is if we start seeing more troughs forming south of the Aleutians.  We'll see if the East Asian theory starts playing a role later this month and begins a pattern of forming that trough...and if it holds later into September.  Seems like most met's/forecasters are starting to "bank" on the N PAC to play a big role given the fact that the La Nina may be weak or even ENSO neutral.

[OKwx2k4]

Some of the early clues that I'm going to look out for as we head into September, is if we start seeing more troughs forming south of the Aleutians. We'll see if the East Asian theory starts playing a role later this month and begins a pattern of forming that trough...and if it holds later into September. Seems like most met's/forecasters are starting to "bank" on the N PAC to play a big role given the fact that the La Nina may be weak or even ENSO neutral.

I really like where their heads are at with the PDO enso combo. 2 wildcards for me are if the QBO will cooperate and how much of a problem will the very warm waters off the Baja and SoCal could be if they persist and try to help blast warmth too far east. I'm still waiting on a few more clues I guess.

[UnionWX]

We like

 

Ed Vallee ‏@EdValleeWx  4h4 hours ago

New European monthlies are in through the winter. Theme of near/below normal temps and near/above normal precip (snow) continues!

 

Ed Vallee ‏@EdValleeWx  4h4 hours ago

New European monthlies are in through the winter. Theme of near/below normal temps and near/above normal precip (snow) continues!

 

[Tom]

Boy, this would be an exciting hemispheric alignment...

 

Evolution from late Autumn/early Winter...

 

NDJ...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd4.gif

 

DJF...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd5.gif

 

JFM...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd6.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Sign me up! Looks like a frigid JFM with a perfect southern storm track.

[Tom]

Sign me up! Looks like a frigid JFM with a perfect southern storm track.

For a few weeks now, the CFSv2 has been showing a lot of precip in the eastern 2/3rd's CONUS...

 

DJF...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd5.gif

 

 

JFM...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd6.gif

[Tom]

I've been doing some digging and trying to find some more Winter Outlook maps and I came across the CPC's temp/precip through October 2017.  I'll post the maps below.  I remember before the winter of 2013-2014, the CPC had equal chances of below or above normal temps for much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation.  Meaning, the maps below were basically the color "white" with some orange on the west coast.

 

Check out what they are thinking at the moment from late Autumn through Spring!  You can get the idea that they may be thinking a very cold winter may be on the way for parts of the lower 48...coupled with a wet/snowy season.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/t.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/p.gif

[Tom]

About 4 weeks ago, I saw the potential of where the CFSv2 could be heading given the SST alignment in the N PAC and a weak La Nina.  There were some weeks where the model had warm runs (a given) but the overall trend has been a colder look for the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation.  Here are the recent weekly trends for late Autumn and Winter...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd4.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd4.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd5.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd5.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd6.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd6.gif

[jaster220]

For a few weeks now, the CFSv2 has been showing a lot of precip in the eastern 2/3rd's CONUS...

 

DJF...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd5.gif

 

 

JFM...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd6.gif

 

 

About 4 weeks ago, I saw the potential of where the CFSv2 could be heading given the SST alignment in the N PAC and a weak La Nina.  There were some weeks where the model had warm runs (a given) but the overall trend has been a colder look for the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation.  Here are the recent weekly trends for late Autumn and Winter...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd4.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd4.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd5.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd5.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd6.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd6.gif

 

LOL @ the precip "radar hole" over Lwr Mich. Better be a fluke   Makes zero sense when you think about thermal boundary zones and how systems normal ride a SW to NE trajectory in this area. Need I remind everyone to keep enthusiasm in check. 2011-12 winter was looking stellar right up to the bitter FAIL. Just sayin

[Tom]

I just saw a video on Gary Lezak's Weather2020 blog and he mentioned that from now till early October, we will see smaller features of a new pattern developing until the new pattern takes hold right around the 1st week of October..  It's interesting seeing what the 500mb pattern the models are forecasting over the next 1-3 weeks in the northern latitudes.  If this is true, then we will see the trough form south of the Aleutians which is where the pattern is heading by next week.  

[OKwx2k4]

LOL @ the precip "radar hole" over Lwr Mich. Better be a fluke Makes zero sense when you think about thermal boundary zones and how systems normal ride a SW to NE trajectory in this area. Need I remind everyone to keep enthusiasm in check. 2011-12 winter was looking stellar right up to the bitter FAIL. Just sayin

Only thing I can think of that I noted about 2011-12 early on down my way was that I would get marginal temps all season and an ice storm threat or 2. I was pretty much dead on there at the time. That was back when I used to write this stuff down in a comp notebook. One has to remember that 2011-12 occurred after (not during) a pretty stout La Niña and the majority of the Northern Hemisphere's oceans were much below avg. Not really a close comparison to this year at all. That year was doomed from the start as was 2012-13 for some different (qbo, solar, ++AO) and some similar reasons.

[OKwx2k4]

Has anybody done a side by side of August 2013 ssts vs today's? Based on sea surface temps alone, there's a massive cold signal for North America. Just massive. Also, it's not east based cold this time. Dead center of the US. I give that a huge thumbs up.

[Tom]

Has anybody done a side by side of August 2013 ssts vs today's? Based on sea surface temps alone, there's a massive cold signal for North America. Just massive. Also, it's not east based cold this time. Dead center of the US. I give that a huge thumbs up.

However, during the 1st half of October 2013 the NE PAC cooled off significantly...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.10.10.2013.gif

 

Then it warmed towards the end of November 2013...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.11.28.2013.gif

 

 

 

Current SST anomaly in the N PAC is very, very warm...unlike in 2013, I don't believe there will be that much volatility this year.  Modeling doesn't suggest it and the fact that this is a mature +PDO.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.8.11.2016.gif

[Tom]

I'm wondering how much the drought that is forming in the SE will influence the 2016-17 LRC pattern when it starts developing in Oct/Nov...also, the warm waters off the SE coast could pump the SE ridge early on in the season.

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/current/current_usdm.png

[OKwx2k4]

However, during the 1st half of October 2013 the NE PAC cooled off significantly...

 

 

 

Current SST anomaly in the N PAC is very, very warm...unlike in 2013, I don't believe there will be that much volatility this year. Modeling doesn't suggest it and the fact that this is a mature +PDO.

 

 

 

This is kinda what I'm getting at. If the N PAC hadn't cooled so greatly in 2013, I believe pretty firmly that there are places as far south as me or further that would have seen a top 4 or 5 winter in terms of cold. I'm leaning that way this year. Thinking in terms of being sandwiched between 2 ridges most of the winter. All you need is a SSW or a hard AO dip in early December and it's 3 months of game on.

 

Just really need the easterlies (qbo) to get its act together over the next 45 days or so before I'm going to go all in for cold at this point. Fooled me once. I learned my lesson. Won't fool me again!!

[jaster220]

Only thing I can think of that I noted about 2011-12 early on down my way was that I would get marginal temps all season and an ice storm threat or 2. I was pretty much dead on there at the time. That was back when I used to write this stuff down in a comp notebook. One has to remember that 2011-12 occurred after (not during) a pretty stout La Niña and the majority of the Northern Hemisphere's oceans were much below avg. Not really a close comparison to this year at all. That year was doomed from the start as was 2012-13 for some different (qbo, solar, ++AO) and some similar reasons.

 

Funny how pretty much every major outlet with highly paid long range forecasters all missed that fact. I don't remember one single high profile wx source coming out with any maps or related forecast showing/saying how the upcoming winter was going to "blow chunks" for most of the lower 48. They pretty much were all saying robust winter incoming. I remember being very concerned that all the really cold stuff was hanging out on the other side of the globe and showed zero signs of wanting to come over to our side. Hoping the season delivers - for everyone - but especially for you since you hang tough on here holding out hope whereas I've enjoyed 3 above normal seasons with the whopper season giving me 2 winter's worth of the white stuff and massive depths (like you got down there in 2011 I think it was) 

[Tom]

One of the coldest runs yet on the CFS model.  Been watching it daily and I've noticed that its trying to push plenty of systems across the central states mid/late October.  Some pretty cold days on this run with hints of snow in late October.  I'll be honest, it hasn't shown really any warm runs in October.  Still early though, but interesting to see how its trying to paint a pattern that has plenty of troughs traversing the eastern 2/3rds of the nation as the new LRC develops.  

 

By the opening of October, snow cover starts spreading over AK/CA...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/12/basis00/namk/weas/16100100_1200.gif

 

Mid October...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/12/basis00/namk/weas/16101500_1200.gif

 

 

By Halloween...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/12/basis00/namk/weas/16103112_1200.gif

 

Brrr...pretty chilly Halloween...I'm sure it will change, but the trend has been cold...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/12/basis00/namk/tmax/16103112_1200.gif

 

Subfreezing daytime highs for the northern plains opening week of November???

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/12/basis00/namk/tmax/16110300_1200.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Funny how pretty much every major outlet with highly paid long range forecasters all missed that fact. I don't remember one single high profile wx source coming out with any maps or related forecast showing/saying how the upcoming winter was going to "blow chunks" for most of the lower 48. They pretty much were all saying robust winter incoming. I remember being very concerned that all the really cold stuff was hanging out on the other side of the globe and showed zero signs of wanting to come over to our side. Hoping the season delivers - for everyone - but especially for you since you hang tough on here holding out hope whereas I've enjoyed 3 above normal seasons with the whopper season giving me 2 winter's worth of the white stuff and massive depths (like you got down there in 2011 I think it was)

2010-2011 was the stuff that dreams are made of for me. Once in 100 years type of season. Almost 5 seasons worth of snow and a few consecutive 4 day stretches of never making it above freezing. I don't know if I will get to see that again in my lifetime or not but I hope so.

 

You could probably still find some old forecasts from '11-12 online somewhere. Not even close to reality, like you said. I never saw a solid warm map out of anyone that year. I guess I can't really say a whole lot though. I busted pretty hard last year and I honesty knew better. I let some stuff cloud my reasoning when I knew better. I hope I won't be making the same mistake again this time around.

[jaster220]

@ /\ Tom's maps

 

Pretty sure this will center the heart of the cold anomalies to our west vs right over the GL's. If it progresses SE in classic fashion and then stops right in our sweet spot with the prevailing SLP track, this could be awesome. 

 

@ my comment on the "qpf holes" over SMI..

 

Interesting that today's wx snapshot from ORD shows the classic SLP track precip shield. Signs of things to come?

 

  

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Lock that CFS run in Tom. Snow in northwest Arkansas and NE Oklahoma by November 6th! Lol. It would be cool to see that. Haven't deer hunted in the snow in my adult life down here. I know some 40 and 50 year olds who have but I havent. I know it's a fantasy map but the trends are our friend.

[jaster220]

2010-2011 was the stuff that dreams are made of for me. Once in 100 years type of season. Almost 5 seasons worth of snow and a few consecutive 4 day stretches of never making it above freezing. I don't know if I will get to see that again in my lifetime or not but I hope so.

 

You could probably still find some old forecasts from '11-12 online somewhere. Not even close to reality, like you said. I never saw a solid warm map out of anyone that year. I guess I can't really say a whole lot though. I busted pretty hard last year and I honesty knew better. I let some stuff cloud my reasoning when I knew better. I hope I won't be making the same mistake again this time around.

 

Did you see that rare low over Hudson Bay that bombed down to 980 mb? Be nice if that was a hint of things to come. Anomalous for sure!   

[Tom]

 

Did you see that rare low over Hudson Bay that bombed down to 980 mb? Be nice if that was a hint of things to come. Anomalous for sure!   

 

Check out the 12z GFS run for next weekend near the Lakes...

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

I dont have model links set up this time of yr. Can you post a shot? 

[Tom]

The CFSv2 weeklies are now out to mid Spring and I'm starting to see the small shifts in the placement of the coldest anomalies over N.A. which are very similar to 2013-2014 and quite possibly 1977-78.  Just by looking at the 700mb pattern in mid/late Autumn, the trough begins to build south of the Aleutians, possibly even farther west south of the Bearing Sea.  If that's the case, this means the mean trough will be placed over the central CONUS.  The farther east, the cold will be farther towards the eastern 1/3rd of the CONUS.  I know these are small things to talk about but it has a big implications of where the cold will be centered.

 

Here are the 700mb patterns for NDJ, DJF, JFM and FMA respectively...I like to look of the blocking in the Arctic and the strong signal for a NE PAC ridge.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd3.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd4.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd5.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd6.gif

 

 

 

Here are the temp anomalies....the probability that this winter could drag on into Spring are increasing.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd3.gif'

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd4.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd5.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd6.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Wow. Very impressive. That is literally the most perfect spot for the GOA low.

[Tom]

Wow. Very impressive. That is literally the most perfect spot for the GOA low.

Later next week, the CPC comes out with their new monthly seasonal outlook on Thursday.  I bet the map will show more widespread below normal probability.

[OKwx2k4]

They're going to have to. I don't see how it wouldn't be colder even with the warm biases.

[Tom]

Oh boy, the Brazilian is sniffing out a snow system in late October (sarcastic)!  BTW, CFSv2 still advertising a chilly October and early November.

 

http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2016081412/08808W4158N.png

 

 

Here are the latest trends for September, 1st month of met autumn, looking good if you don't want the heat in the south and central states...if we continue to see the trough trying to reform south of the Aleutians next month, good chance it will be a dominant factor for the cold season.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201609.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20160815.201609.gif

[Tom]

The new JMA monthlies came out yesterday and they are echoing the idea of an amplified N.A. pattern, similar to the CFSv2.  Notice the ridge in the NE PAC next month.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201608.D0900_gls.png

By October/November, the model is seeing a central based La Nina and continues with the NE PAC ridge.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201608.D0900_gls.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201608.D0900_gls.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Now, we (SWMI folks) just need this, coupled with that (cold), and presto!  

 

 

 

 

Was thinking over the weekend, that through this run of historic winters, two things I'm still chasing are a top ranking depth, and a top 3 Big Dog (CAT-5) storm.

 

Depth of 2 foot plus happened in '78 and '82. Got to 21" in 2014 (twice?)

Jan '67 and '78 both hit on the same dates and both left Marshall with 22" of single storm accumulation. So I've got a tie for 1st unless I could "crown a new champ" then I'd have a tie for 2nd LOL  

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

The CFSv2, JMA, and long range EURO all echo the same or similar ideas. Simply put, friends, summer is all but over for our regions in the weather sense at least. Short summer in meteorological terms of heat. I categorize "weather autumn" as the first complete 7 day stretch of below 90 highs after the last full 7 days of above 90 highs.

[james1976]

Lots of things pointing toward a potential 13-14 type Winter. That was epic.

[james1976]

I haven't looked for it on the internet yet but today on the radio they mentioned the Old Farmer's Almanac just came out with their Winter Forecast and it apparently has the Midwest with below normal temps/above normal snowfall.