Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[OKwx2k4]

Both '09/'10 & '07/'08 would be great winters to experience for most of the sub form, except for maybe the deep southern Plains.

2009-10 was an AMAZING winter down here. 33" of snow and 6th ranked cold behind 1977-78, 78-79, 83-84, 76-77 and 2013-14. Not necessarily in that order. Fayetteville records only go back 67 years though. It was a blockbuster. Don't really remember 07-08 that well. I think my notes were super warm fall and disappointing winter if I'm not mistaken.

[james1976]

13-14 got off to a fast start. I saw first flakes September 27th and first inch October 22. Kept rolling from there.

[Tom]

Pikes Peak, CO got their taste of Winter!  TBH, I can't wait for these scenes...

 

 

[james1976]

Awesome!

[jaster220]

2009-10 was an AMAZING winter down here. 33" of snow and 6th ranked cold behind 1977-78, 78-79, 83-84, 76-77 and 2013-14. Not necessarily in that order. Fayetteville records only go back 67 years though. It was a blockbuster. Don't really remember 07-08 that well. I think my notes were super warm fall and disappointing winter if I'm not mistaken.

 

With 07-08 being quite warm (call it "just cold enough for snow") even up here in MI, I doubt it was a good season down your way. Pretty sure that was the season every storm hit Madison, WI and they got their record 100" total. It was good in Marshall too, but we were on the southern edge of the best storms that winter most of the time and the snow melted off to nothingness quickly. Snow-rinse-repeat was the theme. The bitter stuff waited until the following season which was actually worse better for mby. 2009-10 featured Oct snow but this region was sandwiched between the better storm tracks so it was nothing stellar here, just alright which was no surprise since the two seasons prior were way above avg.  

 

Edit:  @ Pikes Peak photo    It's likely a tell-tale sign that winter conditions are setting in a bit early out in the S. Rockies wrt 1st snows. May not be a slam-dunk correlation, but most definitely a signal for early cold. 

[Tom]

With 07-08 being quite warm (call it "just cold enough for snow") even up here in MI, I doubt it was a good season down your way. Pretty sure that was the season every storm hit Madison, WI and they got their record 100" total. It was good in Marshall too, but we were on the southern edge of the best storms that winter most of the time and the snow melted off to nothingness quickly. Snow-rinse-repeat was the theme. The bitter stuff waited until the following season which was actually worse for mby. 2009-10 featured Oct snow but this region was sandwiched between the better storm tracks so it was nothing stellar here, just alright which was no surprise since the two seasons prior were way above avg.  

 

Edit:  @ Pikes Peak photo    It's likely a tell-tale sign that winter conditions are setting in a bit early out in the S. Rockies wrt 1st snows. May not be a slam-dunk correlation, but most definitely a signal for early cold. 

2007-08 was the epic winter for S/C Wisco!  Like you, our area (except for maybe Geo's area on north) was always on the southern edge of the major storm systems.  A lot of mixed bag systems, while just 50-100 miles NW they had probably 8+ 6-12" storms during the heart of the season.  I went snowmobiling to my friends place near Castle Rock Lake in early January and they had a snow depth of 2-3 Feet in his back yard.  Would love to experience a Winter like that with big storm after storm.  2013-14 had many smaller systems, with a couple big back to back storms to open up the New Year around here.  A lot of WI peeps were loving that year.

[WBadgersW]

2007-08 was the epic winter for S/C Wisco! Like you, our area (except for maybe Geo's area on north) was always on the southern edge of the major storm systems. A lot of mixed bag systems, while just 50-100 miles NW they had probably 8+ 6-12" storms during the heart of the season. I went snowmobiling to my friends place near Castle Rock Lake in early January and they had a snow depth of 2-3 Feet in his back yard. Would love to experience a Winter like that with big storm after storm. 2013-14 had many smaller systems, with a couple big back to back storms to open up the New Year around here. A lot of WI peeps were loving that year.

Oh man, don't remind me about 07/08. I got 121" that year.

[Tom]

Oh man, don't remind me about 07/08. I got 121" that year.

Wow! You prob had a lot of Lake Enhancement that year from systems taking the ideal track. I can't imagine what the scenery looked like back then with mounds of snow. On top of that, temps didn't really torch and your snowpack was deep for a long period of time.

[Hawkeye]

07-08 was awesome here.  I received a record 62 inches of snow.  It was also not particularly cold, which is a plus.  I would kill for another winter like that.

[OKwx2k4]

It's kind of a shame I'm so far away from all of you. I can't honestly hope for the same things in a winter season as you all do or I get screwed. Lol

[Tom]

Stochastic events are hard to predict, but this Icelandic volcano is over due and may erupt at any moment.  If one should erupt, and become a big event, this could have big implications to blocking in the Arctic and cooling of the atmosphere down the road if enough ash is spewed into the highest part of the atmosphere.

 

https://reportuk.org/2016/08/29/icelands-biggest-volcano-about-to-erupt-sparking-fears-of-more-ash-cloud-chaos/?utm_content=buffer5942c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[jaster220]

It's been a couple weeks since I posted maps the CFS model was showing in terms of where the model believes the snow cover will begin to build.  I remember, back in early August, the model saw the Archipelago region and parts of the Yukon having snows already sticking towards the first part of September.  Let's dive in and see what it's showing now.

 

By mid September, here is today's run (btw, its been pretty consistent) where the snow cover should start building.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/29/basis00/namk/weas/16091500_2900.gif

 

 

Both GEFS/EPS show a drastic cooling in this part of northern Canada/Yukon Territories.  In fact, the GFS is showing these snows...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016082912/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

 

 

By October 1st...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/29/basis00/namk/weas/16100100_2900.gif

 

November 1st...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/29/basis00/namk/weas/16110100_2900.gif

 

 

November 22nd...(this will most definitely change, but signing a common tune over the past few weeks)...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/29/basis00/namk/weas/16112200_2900.gif

 

Holy moly if that last map verifies! Ton of coverage in the Lwr 48 for the 3rd week of Nov,  Our once-in-90 yrs 12+ inches last Nov 21st was just an isolated (though deep) blob for a few days, That map above looks like January snow coverage - lol 

[Tom]

Holy moly if that last map verifies! Ton of coverage in the Lwr 48 for the 3rd week of Nov,  Our once-in-90 yrs 12+ inches last Nov 21st was just an isolated (though deep) blob for a few days, That map above looks like January snow coverage - lol 

Today's run singing a similar tune...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/31/basis00/namk/weas/16112212_3100.gif

 

 

I'd love to see this be a repetitive 500mb pattern in the next LRC...troughs digging in the SW, ridge in the SE...eye candy

 

 

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/31/basis00/namk/tpps/16111712_3100.gif

[jaster220]

Stochastic events are hard to predict, but this Icelandic volcano is over due and may erupt at any moment.  If one should erupt, and become a big event, this could have big implications to blocking in the Arctic and cooling of the atmosphere down the road if enough ash is spewed into the highest part of the atmosphere.

 

https://reportuk.org/2016/08/29/icelands-biggest-volcano-about-to-erupt-sparking-fears-of-more-ash-cloud-chaos/?utm_content=buffer5942c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

It says the last time it went big was 1918 (didn't see a month?) and that winter prior (1917-18) was epic for the OHV & Lwr Lakes but Idk about the following couple of winters. I wouldn't presume an immediate relationship as normally there is a lag time for the cold effects. It takes some months for the emmisions to get circulated around the upper atmosphere. If the eruption is large enough (think Tambora or Krakatoa here) the effects can last 2 or more years though. Not sure this Katla is of the caliber to cause global effects? Anyone familiar with the threshold for global wx influence based on amount of ejecta? 

[jaster220]

Today's run singing a similar tune...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/31/basis00/namk/weas/16112212_3100.gif

 

 

I'd love to see this be a repetitive 500mb pattern in the next LRC...troughs digging in the SW, ridge in the SE...eye candy

 

 

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/31/basis00/namk/tpps/16111712_3100.gif

 

"Similar" but different. Quite a bit in reality. Snows from the central plains to the W. UP of Michigan is much more realistic at that timeframe than what the other run was showing. November of '89 is the only one I remember where SMI had snow-on-snow mid winter kind of conditions by that date. 

[OKwx2k4]

Based on analogs alone, there's no possible way that I finish the winter season this year with temperatures more than 1 degree above average. Every series of years I've entered so far leaves me with a cool dry west, cool, normal precip from West TX up through the eastern GL region and a warm wet entire east coast. The following are likely going to be my final analogs. 1959-60, 1978-79(2x), 1983-84(2x), 2013-14, 2014-15, 1915-16, and 2007-08. These aren't cherry picked at all. All are either rooted solidly in ENSO, Atlantic sst with recent evolution of the hurricane season and tracks, and lastly, the North Pacific warm mode.

[jaster220]

Based on analogs alone, there's no possible way that I finish the winter season this year with temperatures more than 1 degree above average. Every series of years I've entered so far leaves me with a cool dry west, cool, normal precip from West TX up through the eastern GL region and a warm wet entire east coast. The following are likely going to be my final analogs. 1959-60, 1978-79(2x), 1983-84(2x), 2013-14, 2014-15, 1915-16, and 2007-08. These aren't cherry picked at all. All are either rooted solidly in ENSO, Atlantic sst with recent evolution of the hurricane season and tracks, and lastly, the North Pacific warm mode.

 

Wild card may be the potential Modiki La Nina. There's almost always a wild card up Mother Nature's sleeve it would seem..

[jaster220]

Today's run singing a similar tune...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/31/basis00/namk/weas/16112212_3100.gif

 

 

I'd love to see this be a repetitive 500mb pattern in the next LRC...troughs digging in the SW, ridge in the SE...eye candy

 

 

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/31/basis00/namk/tpps/16111712_3100.gif

 

 

@ Tom

 

"I'd love to see this be a repetitive 500mb pattern in the next LRC...troughs digging in the SW, ridge in the SE...eye candy"

 

Primary track could set up one wx zone to our north keep in mind. Something I'm concerned about tbh. Keep hearing of the "carry-over" effect from El Nino and the most consistent track dumped on NMI last season.  That scenario actually treats your place (Northern side of Chi-town) pretty good, but mby is more linked with the fate of the south side/NW Indiana. 

[james1976]

Today's run singing a similar tune...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/31/basis00/namk/weas/16112212_3100.gif

 

 

I'd love to see this be a repetitive 500mb pattern in the next LRC...troughs digging in the SW, ridge in the SE...eye candy

 

 

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/31/basis00/namk/tpps/16111712_3100.gif

That 500mb pattern would be amazing

[OKwx2k4]

Wild card may be the potential Modiki La Nina. There's almost always a wild card up Mother Nature's sleeve it would seem..

That possibility was taken into account as well. Evidenced in my analogs as a general (although slight) increase in precip in the southwestern US and a stronger signal for warm ridging oriented more north to south up and down the east coast. It is mindful to note that there isn't nearly the meteorological concensus as to the effects of modoki La Niña as there is for the similar type of El Niño.

 

If I had give my opinion on wildcards at this point they would be:

 

A)Strength and final location of the warm pools in the North Pacific. (Think Aleutian low here. Right now it seems to be drifting between the 2 areas of intense warmth.)

 

B)AO/NAO combo. It's been pretty hard to predict over the last few seasons.

 

C)Sudden stratospheric warming or a lack thereof.

 

It's interesting that the patterns showing up on the CFS in the longer ranges would be what normally precedes the winter pattern I have seen in my analogs.

[Niko]

Based on analogs alone, there's no possible way that I finish the winter season this year with temperatures more than 1 degree above average. Every series of years I've entered so far leaves me with a cool dry west, cool, normal precip from West TX up through the eastern GL region and a warm wet entire east coast. The following are likely going to be my final analogs. 1959-60, 1978-79(2x), 1983-84(2x), 2013-14, 2014-15, 1915-16, and 2007-08. These aren't cherry picked at all. All are either rooted solidly in ENSO, Atlantic sst with recent evolution of the hurricane season and tracks, and lastly, the North Pacific warm mode.

[bud2380]

2013-14 I ended up with 40.1" with 7 Winter Wx Advisories and 1 Winter Storm Warning. No huge storms, but several smaller ones.

 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

2013-14 I ended up with 40.1" with 7 Winter Wx Advisories and 1 Winter Storm Warning. No huge storms, but several smaller ones.

 

2013-14.PNG

Can't remember the exact number but I was right around 60" that winter. It was epic. Lots of clippers. Not much for big storms or wound up storms.

[jaster220]

2013-14 I ended up with 40.1" with 7 Winter Wx Advisories and 1 Winter Storm Warning. No huge storms, but several smaller ones.

 

2013-14.PNG

 

(21) days with measurable SNOW. Not bad for your system-only locale. I counted mine and had (55) days in that historic season. I'm on the fringe wrt "purely LES" and it's rarely more than a dusting way inland. I do however often benefit from slightly higher totals via lake enhancement to the clipper type systems. And I can't sweat the warnings vs advisories as my WFO (GRR) is known to issue an advisory for 10" of system snow and hoist a warning for a Clipper that leaves 1-2" in mby LOL.

 

What I really want is to see another one of these!

 

 

 

Ofc, it may be the only time in history that an ENTIRE STATE has been declared a disaster due to snow, so not holding my breath (sigh..)

[jaster220]

..my post from a local forum last Oct

 

v. bombed

v.tr.

To attack, damage, or destroy with or as if with bombs.

v.intr.

1. To drop a bomb..

 

Best damned video I've seen yet of OUR lakes bliz of '78!   One that's not just a collection of still shots, but a real motion picture. The true effects on the 1st or 2nd day after The Motha of all winter storms for Michigan. We got nuked! Recently saw a report that some areas near Traverse City had up to 51" (on top of a 3 foot base!) by the time follow-on LES ended several days later.

 

Fave spots: @ 1:19 boy vanishes (btw that is a 4x4 they can barely get into the barn), @ 5:16 yep, that's the road there somewhere, and @ the end kids walking through and playing on the snow banks along the road. (that's a sizeable county road too, not some dead-end dirt street)

 

If you realize this is SOUTH of Jackson, not anywhere near the LES belts where things were considerably worse, it's no wonder some were snowbound for weeks in those hardest hit regions. Oh the memories of growing up in the days of wx lore for us Michiganders. My buddies and I were also playing on the huge drifts even up in Genesee Cnty, one of the least slammed areas of southern Mich.

 

 

(for those not from MI, the video that cues up immediately after this one was produced by GRR a couple years ago and the theme music/song is not only period, but the lyrics are a great fit for the super storm that this storm was for the state)

[OKwx2k4]

Well, I checked around and got some added advice on my analogs just to make sure I wasn't cherry picking or being overly wishful. Got responses from someone whom I trust more than myself stating that 1978-79 along with 83-84 and 1959-60 matched more criteria, year to date, than any other years. So no, maybe won't see a January 78 type storm, (I call that one the MOAB. Mother of All Bombs) but a winter of 1978-79 repeat would probably make most if us very happy too.

 

Only other storm that I ever knew of that was as powerful as the January 78 storm was the January 1912 storm and it was actually more powerful. It buried my entire region in feet of snow to some of the largest depths ever recorded in eastern Oklahoma before rolling up through the Midwest and great lakes like the bomb listed above. There were places in the Ozarks and the foothills down here that had a snowpack of over 4 feet at one time. My grandmother was told stories of her parents traveling over the top wires of barbed wire fences by sleigh and only knowing whose property it was by seeing the tips of their fence posts sticking out of the snow. Anyway, if no one can tell yet, I think we're all ready for a real winter again!!

[Tom]

Well, I checked around and got some added advice on my analogs just to make sure I wasn't cherry picking or being overly wishful. Got responses from someone whom I trust more than myself stating that 1978-79 along with 83-84 and 1959-60 matched more criteria, year to date, than any other years. So no, maybe won't see a January 78 type storm, (I call that one the MOAB. Mother of All Bombs) but a winter of 1978-79 repeat would probably make most if us very happy too.

 

Only other storm that I ever knew of that was as powerful as the January 78 storm was the January 1912 storm and it was actually more powerful. It buried my entire region in feet of snow to some of the largest depths ever recorded in eastern Oklahoma before rolling up through the Midwest and great lakes like the bomb listed above. There were places in the Ozarks and the foothills down here that had a snowpack of over 4 feet at one time. My grandmother was told stories of her parents traveling over the top wires of barbed wire fences by sleigh and only knowing whose property it was by seeing the tips of their fence posts sticking out of the snow. Anyway, if no one can tell yet, I think we're all ready for a real winter again!!

 

Thanks for sharing some great stories Jaster & OKwx!!!  I love hearing people's experiences during some of the worst Blizzards in the past.  It seems like to me that some of the most frequent and powerful storms that hit the central CONUS were experienced in the late 70's,  Aside from, the 2010 Christmas Day storm that pounded the Plains and of course the 2011 GHD Blizzard, there hasn't been quite the consistency as the East Coast gets.  Hopefully we see more Winters in the future that can target the majority of our sub forum.  The EC always tends to have 1 or 2 powerful Nor' Easters every winter.  I hope this year's LRC can deliver!

[jaster220]

Well, I checked around and got some added advice on my analogs just to make sure I wasn't cherry picking or being overly wishful. Got responses from someone whom I trust more than myself stating that 1978-79 along with 83-84 and 1959-60 matched more criteria, year to date, than any other years. So no, maybe won't see a January 78 type storm, (I call that one the MOAB. Mother of All Bombs) but a winter of 1978-79 repeat would probably make most if us very happy too.

 

Only other storm that I ever knew of that was as powerful as the January 78 storm was the January 1912 storm and it was actually more powerful. It buried my entire region in feet of snow to some of the largest depths ever recorded in eastern Oklahoma before rolling up through the Midwest and great lakes like the bomb listed above. There were places in the Ozarks and the foothills down here that had a snowpack of over 4 feet at one time. My grandmother was told stories of her parents traveling over the top wires of barbed wire fences by sleigh and only knowing whose property it was by seeing the tips of their fence posts sticking out of the snow. Anyway, if no one can tell yet, I think we're all ready for a real winter again!!

 

Is there a wiki page on that storm? Or do you have any other llinks regarding it? Sounds fantastic and first I've heard of it tbh. 

 

@ Tom's comments

 

Sadly, we're sandwhiched between the two primary bliz regions so our frequency is naturally lower than the plains or the EC. Especially the EC, seems they get massive storms by the gross dozen lately! 

[OKwx2k4]

Is there a wiki page on that storm? Or do you have any other llinks regarding it? Sounds fantastic and first I've heard of it tbh.

 

@ Tom's comments

 

Sadly, we're sandwhiched between the two primary bliz regions so our frequency is naturally lower than the plains or the EC. Especially the EC, seems they get massive storms by the gross dozen lately!

I'm glad you asked me that jaster. It was actually 1917-18 not 1911-12. I'm sorry for getting the years wrong. Type "The old-fashioned winter of 1917-18" in a search engine and read the articles on it. It's easy to miss but there's a paragraph that mentions the snow depth over much of the Ozarks was 4 feet at one point. I believe after further research it was caused by a massive Arklatex low and extreme cold.

[Tom]

I'm glad you asked me that jaster. It was actually 1917-18 not 1911-12. I'm sorry for getting the years wrong. Type "The old-fashioned winter of 1917-18" in a search engine and read the articles on it. It's easy to miss but there's a paragraph that mentions the snow depth over much of the Ozarks was 4 feet at one point. I believe after further research it was caused by a massive Arklatex low and extreme cold.

1917-18 were JB's analogs previous to the 2013-14 Winter and look what happened.  Makes sense it was that year.  The warm blob was a major factor that season and reoccurring arctic outbreaks penetrated the eastern 2/3 rd's of the nation.

[OKwx2k4]

1917-18 were JB's analogs previous to the 2013-14 Winter and look what happened. Makes sense it was that year. The warm blob was a major factor that season and reoccurring arctic outbreaks penetrated the eastern 2/3 rd's of the nation.

Yeah. It was a great winter here. Only thing was that we couldn't get a powerful low going all season long. Capitalized on Southwesterly flow over the cold dome all season long though.

[Tom]

Gosh, everyday when I see the new run on the CFS model, I prepare myself for some changes but instead, it's staying pretty consistent in the longer range (Oct-Nov period).  The 500mb pattern in October suggest a parade of troughs that swing through the central/eastern CONUS.  In November, a deep low or likely to be the PV, gets established just north of Hudson Bay.  If that baby parks itself in this part of N.A., it will deliver plenty of cold air.  Essentially, this would be a phenomenal LRC pattern.

 

Today's run kicks of October 1st...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/09/03/basis00/namk/tpps/16100100_0300.gif'

 

October 13th...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/09/03/basis00/namk/tpps/16101300_0300.gif

 

October 18th...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/09/03/basis00/namk/tpps/16101812_0300.gif

 

October 22nd...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/09/03/basis00/namk/tpps/16102200_0300.gif

 

October 24th...

 

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/09/03/basis00/namk/tpps/16102412_0300.gif

 

 

 

You get the gist of things...I'll be more inclined to believe this pattern if its still showing up by late September.  Nonetheless, it's pretty interesting to see this being portrayed with a clear signal for an Aleutian Low and downstream trough for N.A.

 

 

I'll post later today or tomorrow...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

I checked my 90 day extended outlook from Accu-Weather and it gets very cold by end of November. After ThanksGiving Day, it seems like a strong cold front will sweep on through. My lows are in the teens with snow in the forecast for Late November into early December. A lot of us on this forum are frigid. Lets hope it stays true. Will probably change, but its good to see that Accu-Weather is seeing this cold air mass.

[OKwx2k4]

1977-78 is easing it's way onto my list of years. Especially if the hurricane in the southwest hits Arizona.

[Tom]

CPC updated their SST based forecast and its kinda add looking.  Take a gander...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201608/cahgt_anom.0.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201608/cahgt_anom.3.gif

 

 

 

Resulting temp forecast...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201608/cat2m_anom.0.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201608/cat2m_anom.3.gif

[OKwx2k4]

That is pretty odd looking. I don't quite buy it although it does sort of have the La Nina look to it in the DJF time frame. Leaves room for Arctic intrusions from the northwest which is nice.

[Tom]

When do we expect our first measurable snows of the season???  

 

 

 

 

Both GFS/EURO are predicting northern Rockies snow next week as an early Autumn cold shot knifes down the central Plains.  If it happens, for some places this would be roughly 2 weeks ahead of schedule in parts of the Rockies.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016090500/gfs_asnow_wus_41.png

[jaster220]

I'm glad you asked me that jaster. It was actually 1917-18 not 1911-12. I'm sorry for getting the years wrong. Type "The old-fashioned winter of 1917-18" in a search engine and read the articles on it. It's easy to miss but there's a paragraph that mentions the snow depth over much of the Ozarks was 4 feet at one point. I believe after further research it was caused by a massive Arklatex low and extreme cold.

 

Thanks for clarifying. This totally aligns with my recollections (thus you see Jan 1918 listed in my signature) and yes, I've read those links you refer to. Been a few years though and it's always nice to re-read them from time to time. As I read those stories it seems the worst of that winter wrt departures from the norm was indeed actually south of S. Michigan though we certainly were one of the regions benefitting from the pattern.

 

In one way, I'm sad that there wasn't another blockbuster season/storm that perhaps I hadn't heard about  !  My other research found another S. Lakes/OHV Bomb storm in 1873 and the prior worst storm always spoken of for Ohio was I believe 1863-64 season (prior to NWS records ofc). There's also scattered articles regarding a massive storm from the southern plains up to the E. UP of Michigan during the infamous 1856-57 season. This (I believe) is the storm that buried Saginaw MI with 30" at once mentioned in an article printed after the Jan '67 storm dumped 24" there. Oh if I only had more time to play wx history detective. I Love history and storms so it's a natural to me 

[jaster220]

When do we expect our first measurable snows of the season???  

 

 

 

 

Both GFS/EURO are predicting northern Rockies snow next week as an early Autumn cold shot knifes down the central Plains.  If it happens, for some places this would be roughly 2 weeks ahead of schedule in parts of the Rockies.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016090500/gfs_asnow_wus_41.png

 

I'm really surprised with how most of WI and points west are in NOV. Would've thought OCT way up in the north without influence of warm GL's like we deal with here in SMI. 

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

In reference to the severe winter of 1917-18, I also remember a Skilling/WGN tidbit on the infamous January when Chicago got hit by 4 major storms!  I believe it was a year or two prior (1916?). Are you aware or familiar with that story or the folklore?