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FWIW... the WRF shows sunshine most of the day on Saturday with highs still getting close to 80 in Seattle and then full marine push on Sunday morning with clouds clearing in the afternoon and then sunny most of Monday.

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12Z ECMWF is still not as fast as the GFS.

 

It shows temps in the mid-80s on Saturday for Seattle with full sunshine everywhere.   

 

Sunday is likely the cool day.

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ECMWF is ~12hrs faster than its 00z run, however. Also, 12z Canadian & NAEFS are faster than the ECMWF.

 

I think both 7/30 & 7/31 end up cool, at least for daytime highs. All we need is timing to bump forward by ~18hrs to achieve cooler than average overnight lows for 7/30.

 

 

Doubting 7/30.

 

The 12Z ECMWF is a compromise between the 12Z run yesterday and the 00Z run.

 

At 120 hours out... I tend to trust the ECMWF and its seems to be settling down.   The new run shows a solidly sunny, warm day for everyone on Saturday.

 

Sunday is cool on that run... low to mid 70s in Seattle with some afternoon clearing.   Monday is almost totally sunny again and near 80.   

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We'll see. I'm quite (naively?) confident, but small/mesoscale stuff isn't my strong suit.

 

In the long run, however, I suspect troughing will dominate most of August. Niña forcing will be stronger than it has been in over 4yrs starting ~ 2 weeks from now.

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We'll see. I'm quite (naively?) confident, but small/mesoscale stuff isn't my strong suit.

 

In the long run, however, I suspect troughing will dominate most of August. Niña forcing will be stronger than it has been in over 4yrs starting ~ 2 weeks from now.

 

 

Even the aggressive GFS (WRF) shows sunny and close to 80 in Seattle on Saturday.   

 

Sunday is the cool day on the GFS as well... with afternoon clearing and highs in the low to mid 70s.

 

Monday is totally sunny and close to 80 again.

 

On the fine details locally... the models basically agree now for the weekend and into Monday.

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Even the aggressive GFS (WRF) shows sunny and close to 80 in Seattle on Saturday.

 

Sunday is the cool day on the GFS as well... with afternoon clearing and highs in the low to mid 70s.

 

Monday is totally sunny and close to 80 again.

 

On the fine details locally... the models basically agree now for the weekend and into Monday.

Wrong. The GFS has SEA @ 76 for a high, even with its warm daytime bias (cool nighttime bias as well).

 

image.png

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Side note... a faster solution would not mean a cold morning on Saturday.   Might even be a warmer start with that scenario... and then a cooler day.

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No, it doesn't. The GFS has SEA @ 76 for a high, even with its warm daytime bias (cool nighttime bias).

 

attachicon.gifimage.png

 

 

WRF is close to 80... maybe 78 with sunshine.    Very close to what that is showing and would have a better handle on local effects.    And of course the morning will start off above normal as all mornings do... particularly with a trough moving in.  

 

And its hard to doubt the ECMWF within 5 days.   And it shows Seattle above 80 that day.

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SEA at 77 already and above normal for the day at noon.

 

PDX only at 72.   

 

More influence down there obviously.  

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The WRF is a piece of crap, especially at-range. Noting the parent GFS has been running warm during the day (even @ SEA), buying the WRF makes no sense.

 

The CMC & NAEFS both have SEA in the mid-70s, also. When the EPS updates, I'll post it.

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The WRF is a piece of crap, especially at-range. Noting the parent GFS has been running warm during the day (even @ SEA), buying the WRF makes no sense.

 

The CMC & NAEFS both have SEA in the mid-70s, also. When the EPS updates, I'll post that.

 

 

OK Phil.   Sorry to anger you.    I did not know the temperature at an airport 3,000 miles away was so important to you!  

 

The best forecast for day 5 is probably going to be the ECMWF anyways.    And it shows Seattle above 80 that day.  And Portland is touching 90.

 

Untitled.png?4

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OK Phil. Sorry to anger you. I did not know the temperature at an airport 3,000 miles away was so important to you!

 

The best forecast for day 5 is probably going to be the ECMWF anyways. And it shows SEA above 80 that day. And Portland is touching 90.

 

Untitled.png?4

I've become quite interested in PNW weather/climate since I joined here.

 

I'll refrain from posting on the matter until my house cools down, but I'm fairly confident the "fast" trend in the guidance will continue for a bit.

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I've become quite interested in PNW weather/climate since I joined here.

 

I'll refrain from posting on the matter until my house cools down, but I'm fairly confident the "fast" trend in the guidance will continue for a bit.

 

 

Fair enough.   At the current speed... it will be a warm day on Saturday.   The only way it will not be a warm day is if the models speed things up even more.   That is possible of course.

 

Can you post the 10-day temps at SEA from the 12Z ECMWF?     

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Fair enough. At the current speed... it will be a warm day on Saturday. The only way it will not be a warm day is if the models speed things up even more. That is possible of course.

 

Can you post the 10-day temps at SEA from the 12Z ECMWF?

Sure. Remember, the ECMWF consistently runs too cold on sunny days, and too warm on cloudy days. Essentially the opposite bias vs the GFS.

 

It's also been running generally too cold @ SEA/OLM, and too cold @ PDX/EUG. Not sure why that is.

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Here's SEA on the 12z ECMWF. Has 7/30 warm, but again, that's an outlier relative to the majority of guidance.

 

image.png

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Here's SEA on the 12z ECMWF. Has 7/30 warm, but again, that's an outlier relative to the majority of guidance.

 

attachicon.gifimage.png

 

 

Thanks... I will add 3 degrees or more to most days.     Its already 81 at SEA at 1 p.m. and 80 is shown as the high.     :)

 

Looks like 8 out of the next 10 days are above normal at SEA.  

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Thanks... I will add 3 degrees or more to most days.     Its already close to 80 today and that is shown as the high.   

 

Looks like 8 out of the next 10 days above normal at SEA.

 

Why? It had PDX @ 88 today, EUG @ 93. There's no inherent warm bias in the model, just the nature of the pattern at the moment.

 

It was busting warm @ SEA back in May/June.

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Why? It had PDX @ 88 today, EUG @ 93. There's no inherent warm bias in the model, just the nature of the pattern at the moment.

 

It was busting warm @ SEA back in May/June.

 

 

It works for Seattle... and is going to work this week.   I can already tell.  

 

Care to check back in 10 days and compare?   

 

You just said it will be too cool on sunny days.   It will be sunny this week.

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Why? It had PDX @ 88 today, EUG @ 93. There's no inherent warm bias in the model, just the nature of the pattern at the moment.

 

It was busting warm @ SEA back in May/June.

The constant agenda is exhausting to sift through every day. Impossible to ignore posts when they are being quoted. Wish he would just relax and stop constantly trying to prove something.

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The other way around.   Phil is challenging me with every post.

 

You need to add at least 3 degrees to every day this week at SEA on that forecast (except maybe tomorrow).   No need to challenge it.   Its a fact.   Let it go.

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The other way around. Phil is challenging me with every post.

 

You need to add at least 3 degrees to every day this week at SEA on that forecast (except maybe tomorrow). No need to challenge it. Its a fact. Let it go.

It's a discussion dude, you've "challenged" me just as frequently as I've "challenged" you.

 

Saturday will not be 80+, even @ SEA. I think we should start a forecast contest for the "crash" to settle this. :)

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Did a reasonable forecast for this week at SEA with a chilly Sunday thrown in... came up with +1.3 or +1.4 for July.    

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It's a discussion dude, you've "challenged" me just as frequently as I've "challenged" you.

 

Saturday will not be 80+, even @ SEA. I think we should start a forecast contest for the "crash" to settle this. :)

 

 

Pretty confident in spite of the ECMWF at 5 days out.   

 

I will wait to see the 00Z runs and then wager.    Not sure if the 'speeding up' has settled down for good yet.  

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It would be a good time for one. I might put something together.

 

I'm going to score the monthly anom contest once July is over, too.

Was just about to ask you to start one, actually. More than happy to put my money where my mouth is. :)

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I only hope to win at SEA.  :)

 

I had June at +2.8 and it was +2.6

 

I have July at +1.4 and it will be close.   

 

Roughly a +2.0 summer in Seattle going into August.   Going to have to be -4.0 to break even for JJA.  

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Was just about to ask you to start one, actually. More than happy to put my money where my mouth is. :)

 

 

Real money??   Sweet.

 

I wish I had bet you $1,000 that SEA would be warmer compared to average in the second half of July than the first half.     Easy money.     ;)

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Some of these "discussions" between the two of you of late would be more tolerable/understandable if there was large sums of money at stake.

 

 

I was thinking that last night.    So true.    I would love it.  

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Real money?? Sweet.

 

I wish I had bet you $1,000 that SEA would be warmer compared to average in the second half of July than the first half. Easy money. ;)

Well, let's put down money for Saturday, then. Ante $50?

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12z EPS is a tad faster vs 00z, looks like ~ 1.7 degrees cooler for Saturday at SEA, continuing trend from 00z.

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12z EPS is a tad faster vs 00z, looks like ~ 1.7 degrees cooler for Saturday at SEA, continuing trend from 00z.

 

 

That would still be in the 80s in Seattle.  

 

I will wait for the 00Z runs.   The 12Z run today was a compromise between the last two runs.   Not really a trend now.  

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That would still be in the 80s in Seattle.

 

I will wait for the 00Z runs. The 12Z run today was a compromise between the last two runs. Not really a trend now.

Uh, the EPS is much cooler than the operational ECMWF.

 

Has SEA in the 70s Saturday. In fact, every model/ensemble mean has SEA at or below 77 degrees on Saturday except the operational ECMWF.

 

#outlier

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Uh, the EPS is much cooler than the operational ECMWF.

 

Has SEA in the 70s Saturday. In fact, every model/ensemble mean has SEA at or below 77 degrees on Saturday except the operational ECMWF.

 

#outlier

 

ECMWF has 83 at SEA.   You said the EPS was 1.7 degrees cooler.   That is still in the 80s.   

 

I usually don't bet against the ECMWF at 120 hours.   Could be too slow though.   We will see!

 

Remember normal at SEA is 77... so even upper 70s in above normal.   And the low will not be below 56.   I would bet on that right now.   :)

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The 12z EPS is now cooler than average at all stations during the 11-15 day period. Looks to continue thereafter.

 

 

Perfect timing... hope it works out.     

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ECMWF has 83 at SEA. You said the EPS was 1.7 degrees cooler. That is still in the 80s.

I said 1.7 degrees cooler vs the 00z EPS mean, which had 79 degrees @ SEA. New run is 77.3 degrees.

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Here's day 10, FWIW. Offshore ridge + onshore flow = cooler than average temperatures.

 

post-36-0-57971700-1468825773.png

post-36-0-08047500-1468825765.png

 

Just checking to see if this is still accurate for Wednesday? :)

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Just checking to see if this is still accurate for Wednesday? :)

Considering it was a 240hr (d10) operational run, I'm surprised in nailed the "crash" as accurately as it appears it will.

 

Might only be off by 36-48hrs. All those "heatwave" runs turned out to be nothing more than horsecrap.

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Considering it was a 240hr (d10) operational run, I'm surprised in nailed the "crash" as accurately as it appears it will.

 

Might only be off by 36-48hrs.

 

Going to crash on Wednesday?     Off by 72 hours.   

 

Pretty far off reality for the middle of this week.   

 

EPS 11-15 is only mentioned by you when it shows cold... but its not probably not that accurate either way.

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Going to crash on Wednesday? Off by 72 hours.

Quick trend may continue, so could move up to Friday.

 

Probably ~ 2 days off, when no other model/ensemble (except the CMC) even hinted at it. So, decent run relatively speaking.

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