The Tim and Phil thread

[Phil]

Is in not obvious that my post was in reference to the pattern nationwide, not temperature anomalies within the I5 corridor?

 

Holy smokes.

[TT-SEA]

Troughy, cool, ridgy, and warm at the same time!

Clearly was troughy at the 500mb level for a good part of the time and still above normal at every station for every month.

 

We live at the surface.

 

Will you tell us it was a snowy winter if the snow does not quite reach the ground?

[Phil]

Clearly was troughy at the 500mb level for a good part of the time and still above normal at every station for every month.

 

We live at the surface.

 

Will you tell us it was a snowy winter if the snow does not quite reach the ground?

So was it cool? Or warm? I'm confused.

[TT-SEA]

So was it cool? Or warm? I'm confused.

It was a warmer than normal summer at every station for every month. On the ground where humans live.

 

That is not even a question you need to ask. The data is readily available and not debatable.

[TT-SEA]

Uh, no.

 

At every station on the climate data section of the SEA NWS site for every month.  

 

18 out of 18  (6 stations * 3 months).

 

Pretty compelling evidence.   Those stations are the most controlled and do not miss any days.

[TT-SEA]

I'd say Quillayute is less relevant to this board than PDX.

 

 

I am talking about our region up here in WA and also SW BC since Shawnigan pointed out its laughable to show Vancouver Island as below normal this summer. The map incorrectly showed this region entirely below normal for the summer.    Not talking about Oregon.  

 

And Quillayute is a great example of a station far removed from any UHI effect... still above normal all 3 months. 

[ShawniganLake]

I'd say Quillayute is less relevant to this board than PDX.

That -0.1 at PDX in July probably just overwhelmed the data in the map that Phil posted, so they just painted all of the western lowlands in blue for the three months.  If that map is showing surface temps it is clearly very wrong 

[Deweydog]

I'd say Quillayute is less relevant to this board than PDX.

Last month's -.10 sure did bump their street cred.

[TT-SEA]

That -0.1 at PDX in July probably just overwhelmed the data in the map that Phil posted, so they just painted all of the western lowlands in blue for the three months.  If that map is showing surface temps it is clearly very wrong 

 

 

Even PDX was well above normal in June and again now in August.     

 

How can one month at one station (and only -0.1) skew an entire region for the entire summer?

 

PDX has been solidly above normal for the last 3 months overall.   

 

The map was clearly wrong.   

[Phil]

That -0.1 at PDX in July probably just overwhelmed the data in the map that Phil posted, so they just painted all of the western lowlands in blue for the three months. If that map is showing surface temps it is clearly very wrong

The map runs on a 40km resolution. Its purpose is to depict temperature tendencies on a nationwide scale. The only notable cool temperature anomalies in the nation this summer have occurred in the PNW.

 

The higher resolution aggregations will better depict small scale variations.

[TT-SEA]

The map runs on a 40km resolution. Its purpose is to depict temperature tendencies on a nationwide scale.

 

The higher resolution aggregations will better depict small scale variations.

 

 

You can paint it purple if you want... its still been above normal for the last 3 months at every major station up here in western OR and WA.   

 

There is no debate.     Its official data in the books for you to review.     Its not subjective.   

[Phil]

Here's the quality controlled, gridded surface temperature data.

 

June:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/53E37BEC-E1A3-4E9A-999D-BE744BFCA41B_zpshxdvy00t.png

 

July:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/69CCEBE6-BE45-496C-A222-232E6E16D148_zpsrgjxpfnd.png

[Front Ranger]

OLM is running about +1 for the summer. That is all that matters.

[TT-SEA]

Even PDX is at +1.6 over the last 3 months.  

[TT-SEA]

OLM is running about +1 for the summer. That is all that matters.

 

 

Paint the entire region blue!    When not one major station in western WA and OR has been below normal for the last 3 months.   Not a single one.  

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EAF0C24D-B011-456E-B544-8D4B1D571306_zpslzeib72t.jpg

[Phil]

You can paint it purple if you want... its still been above normal for the last 3 months at every major station up here in western OR and WA.

 

There is no debate. Its official data in the books for you to review. Its not subjective.

DID I ARGUE OTHERWISE? WHAT THE HELL IS YOUR POINT?

[ShawniganLake]

The map runs on a 40km resolution. Its purpose is to depict temperature tendencies on a nationwide scale. The only notable cool temperature anomalies in the nation this summer have occurred in the PNW.

 

The higher resolution aggregations will better depict small scale variations.

I guess at that resolution its probably picking up the cooler temps that may have occurred at higher elevations.  Sort of similar to looking at a poor resolution snowfall map during the winter here.  Forecasts 6ft of snow in the long range, even though the snow level is going to be 2-3000ft. 

[TT-SEA]

D**n that blue map is infuriating! Laughable! Completely destroys my memories of this toasty summer.

 

I think a strongly worded letter is in order.

 

 

All we said is that it was wrong.    It is wrong.   

 

If every station was below normal for the summer and the map showed red... would you say it was wrong?   I would say that was wrong as well.  

[TT-SEA]

I guess at that resolution its probably picking up the cooler temps that may have occurred at higher elevations.  Sort of similar to looking at w poor resolution snowfall map during the winter here.  Forecasts 6ft of snow in the long range, even though the snow level is going to be 2-3000ft. 

 

 

Good news then!   It will be a VERY snowy winter across our region even if the snow level never falls below 1,500 feet.    We can all go out and play in our low resolution snow!   

[Phil]

I guess at that resolution its probably picking up the cooler temps that may have occurred at higher elevations. Sort of similar to looking at w poor resolution snowfall map during the winter here. Forecasts 6ft of snow in the long range, even though the snow level is going to be 2-3000ft.

Yeah, should be obvious what the purpose of that map is.

 

Tim is just trying to start a fight. Every bit of board drama involves him somehow.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, should be obvious what the purpose of that map is.

 

Tim is just trying to start a fight. Every bit of board drama involves him somehow.

 

 

This is why...  these are not small scale variations.   Every station has been above normal for the last 3 months.     You were trying to argue otherwise.   

 

 

The NOAA map overly smoothed, yes. The purpose is to depict regional temperature anomalies on a broad scale, rather than smaller scale variations.

 

The dominant trough position this summer has been over the PNW. I don't think anyone can deny this, looking at the 500mb height anomalies.

 

 

Uh, BLI has been a monstrous outlier to the majority of the region (even the I-5 corridor) this summer. Why reference a station that's been largely unrepresentative of the region?

 

 

You're completely missing the point. The NOAA map is designed to (and was in reference to) measure(d) temperatures on a broader scale to reflect systematic tendencies and behaviors through the summer. Not small scale variations.

 

The maps you're referencing don't even depict official, quality controlled data. Just preliminary anomalies.

 

[Phil]

Did you miss your meds? Nowhere in those posts was I arguing the I5 corridor averaged cooler than normal.

[TT-SEA]

Did you miss your meds? Nowhere in those posts was I arguing the I5 corridor averaged cooler than normal.

 

 

You clearly were trying to minimize the warm stations like BLI.    But every station has been warm.    

 

And not just the I-5 corridor either.

 

The coast and also Vancouver Island... every station warmer than normal.  

 

Sorry... the map is wrong.   

[Phil]

My post about BLI was in reference to this (innacurate) post:

 

Bellingham as an example... its been getting warmer as the summer as progressed.

The bolded is demonstrably false. As in, absolute horses**t.

 

June finished cooler than May. July finished cooler than June. September will finish cooler than any month since last year.

[TT-SEA]

Upper levels were cooler than average over our region this summer, overall. 

 

If upper level temps were slightly warmer than average in the winter, many places still might end up below normal thanks to inversions. In that case it would be fair to say that a map painting upper level departures as red is as correct as the departures of the stations on the surface. Both can be right.

 

Although, of course, the cries of "fake cold!" would be echoing through the forum. Perhaps a good deal of this summer's warmth was "fake warmth", then, by that measure?

 

 

Surface is the surface in both cases.   Fake cold is real.   

 

And much of the real warmth this summer has been far from "fake".   

[TT-SEA]

My post about BLI was in reference to this (innacurate) post:

 

 

The bolded is demonstrably false. As in, absolute horses**t.

 

 

Bellingham has actually been getting a little warmer in relation to normal as the summer progressed.   My point was 100% accurate.   Again the data is not debatable.   

 

June +1.9

July +2.0

August +2.6

 

 

I believe that is a higher number each month.   

[Phil]

You clearly were trying to minimize the warm stations like BLI. But every station has been warm.

 

And not just the I-5 corridor either.

 

The coast and also Vancouver Island... every station warmer than normal.

 

Sorry... the map is wrong.

Uh, no. I was conveying the fact that the Northwest region (as a whole) has experienced a cooler than average summer. I said exactly that in three of my follow-up posts.

 

How can I "minimize" the I5 corridor if I'm not talking about it?

[Phil]

Bellingham has actually been getting a little warmer in relation to normal as the summer progressed. My point was 100% accurate. Again the data is not debatable.

 

June +1.9

July +2.0

August +2.6

 

 

I believe that is a higher number each month.

It's an outlier in that regard, as SEA, PDX, OLM, and the majority of stations within the I5 corridor have cooled overall as the warm season has progressed.

 

In fact, only two stations in the entire region have followed BLI's trendline, BLI being one of them.

[TT-SEA]

Uh, no. I was conveying the fact that the Northwest region (as a whole) has experienced a cooler than average summer. I said exactly that in three of my follow-up posts.

How can I "minimize" the I5 corridor if I'm not talking about it?

You specifically said the I-5 corridor more than once.

 

It's been a warmer than normal summer for every major station in Western WA and OR.

[Phil]

You specifically said the I-5 corridor more than once.

 

It's been a warmer than normal summer for every major station in Western WA and OR.

Bullcrap. I never even mentioned the I5 corridor until you invoked BLI to claim it's been "warming through the summer" which is pure horses**t.

 

Nice try.

[TT-SEA]

It's an outlier in that regard, as SEA, PDX, OLM, and the majority of stations within the I5 corridor have cooled overall as the warm season has progressed.

In fact, only two stations in the entire region have followed BLI's trendline, BLI being one of them.

Ahhh... August will be warmer than July at every station. Not cooling as the summer progressed. Warm... less warm... and then warmer again at most stations.

[Phil]

Ahhh... August will be warmer than July at every station. Not cooling as the summer progressed. Warm... less warm... and then warmer again at most stations.

But not May or June! You seem to struggle when it comes to statistical analysis.

[TT-SEA]

Bullcrap. I never even mentioned the I5 corridor until you invoked BLI to claim it's been "warming through the summer" which is pure horses**t.

Nice try.

What? Just the opposite.

 

You tried to minimize the warmth as just being isolated along the I-5 corridor.

[Phil]

What? Just the opposite.

 

You tried to minimize the warmth as just being isolated along the I-5 corridor.

It has mostly been confined to western WA/OR. Most of the Northwest region will finish with a cooler than average summer.

[Phil]

You're both jumping the gun. The JAS period was always the point of discussion, since everyone agreed June would be warm.

Yeah, even I forecasted a warm JJA.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, even I forecasted a warm JJA.

And it was!

 

With a big rebound in August as we get deep into this Nina forcing.

[Phil]

And it was!

 

With a big rebound in August as we get deep into this Nina forcing.

Niña forcing was prevalent through (most of) July...August had forcing biased west of Niña climo towards 150E w/ IO subsidence.

 

That makes a difference.