August 2016 Observations and Discussions

[Thunder98]

When do you think you will see the 1st 40F or lower morning lows?

[westMJim]

I had the most intense thunderstorm in several years here at my house. Complete with lots of thunder and lightning along with very heavy rain and wind.  The rain gauge recorded 1.73”  but some of the rain may not have made it into the gauge.  Will have to see how much rain fell at the airport as Grand Rapids may be getting  close to a August rain fall record. As of yesterday GRR had recorded 6.57” of rain and the August record is 8.46” set in 1987.

[Tom]

Yesterday's Tornado outbreak came with a surprise.  Nearly 35 Tornado reports were reported in IN & OH.  Sadly, the town of Kokomo, IN was hit hard with an EF-3.  Back in Nov 2013, the same town was hit hard by a tornado and some of the same houses/families were hit again by the Tornado yesterday.  What are the odds of that happening???

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.gif

 

 

Edit: Check out the SPC storm report from the same storm system in the LRC that effected the same areas nearly 150 days ago on March 27th!  Incredible..

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/160327_rpts.png

[Tom]

Seems to me like the models are all flipping to a warmer look as we head into September.  Here are the latest JMA weeklies showing a ridge building in starting Week 1 and continuing through Week 4.

 

Latest CFSv2 run for September...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160825.201609.gif

 

 

If the Typhoons/storms don't re-curve near Japan and head west, instead of N/NE, then a ridge will likely build in.  A super Typhoon is set to hit Japan Day 5-6 and head inland towards mainland China.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_fe_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_fe_7.png

 

 

 

[NEJeremy]

I remember just checking the SPC site yesterday out of curiosity and seeing the tornado watch at about 245p my time and it was in area with a 0% tornado risk. It was very odd looking! Of course, at the 3p update they added a 5% area. Quite the outbreak too. Here's a video of a large, wedge tornado in northwest Ohio. Towards the end of the video, the tornado strikes some buildings unfortunately.

 

Yesterday's Tornado outbreak came with a surprise.  Nearly 35 Tornado reports were reported in IN & OH.  Sadly, the town of Kokomo, IN was hit hard with an EF-3.  Back in Nov 2013, the same town was hit hard by a tornado and some of the same houses/families were hit again by the Tornado yesterday.  What are the odds of that happening???

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.gif

 

 

Edit: Check out the SPC storm report from the same storm system in the LRC that effected the same areas nearly 150 days ago on March 27th!  Incredible..

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/160327_rpts.png

[james1976]

Thats sad stuff

[james1976]

I was hoping for a cooler September so im not excited about the ridging. DMX mentions a ridge to build in next week.

[Tom]

Thats sad stuff

We have to see what happens to the tropical storm down near the Bahama's which is forecast to head into the GOM and intensify.  A lot of times, if this does develop into a Hurricane, those systems "vent" out and the Midwest experiences ridging.  DMX prob siding with the Euro bc the GFS doesn't even have a Hurricane, not even a tropical storm.

[james1976]

Fall like morning here. 60 with a lot of mid level clouds. Last night i was out on my new deck and i noticed a few leaves have turned color and fallen.

[Tom]

GFS has been flipping back and forth for Labor Day weekend around the Lakes region.  There were some earlier torchy runs and now recent runs look more autumnal.  Let's see what today's runs show.  Wouldn't mind seeing a more seasonal approach, although, wouldn't mind also seeing a fantastic boating weekend on Lake Michigan.

[Niko]

Can anyone tell me how to post pics on here. I was in Chicago this week and took some neat photos. Thanks.

[Tom]

Can anyone tell me how to post pics on here. I was in Chicago this week and took some neat photos. Thanks.

Click on the "More Reply Options" tab, then click on "Choose File", then click "Attach File"...

[Niko]

 

Building Thunderstorm in South Bend Indiana.

[Niko]

Click on the "More Reply Options" tab, then click on "Choose File", then click "Attach File"...

Tom, my other pics are too large to attach. Is there a way to shrink them.

[Tom]

Tom, my other pics are too large to attach. Is there a way to shrink them.

I have the same problem and haven't figured it out.  Did you use your phone to take the pics?  If so, try using your phone to upload the pictures and see if it works, otherwise, you have to downsize it on your computer.  Unless, someone else on here can help.

[Niko]

I have the same problem and haven't figured it out.  Did you use your phone to take the pics?  If so, try using your phone to upload the pictures and see if it works, otherwise, you have to downsize it on your computer.  Unless, someone else on here can help.

Yup, I used my phone. Ok, let me try to upload the pics. BTW, Chicago is an amazing city. I'm going there again next month for a weekend getaway.

[Niko]

Here are some pics of Chicago that I took this week. "Lake Michigan"

[Tom]

Here are some pictures from the Air & Water Show last weekend that capture the sky line and some of the jets in action. I believe these were the Thunderbirds, which were the main event.

[OKwx2k4]

Those are some awesome pictures Tom!

 

Edit: And Niko! Very nice!

[Hawkeye]

I picked up another 0.45" of rain overnight, which boosts my August total to 7.12".  My summer total is 20.23", obviously well above avg.

[Tom]

Woke up early around 5:45 am to pick up my parents from ORDt and it was pouring out with training bands.  Much of the area picked up 0.5-2.0" of rainfall.  A Flash Flood Advisory has been issued for portions of Chicago as a result of the drenching rains:

 

 

 

Flood AdvisoryFLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
730 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

ILC031-197-INC089-271630-
/O.NEW.KLOT.FA.Y.0073.160827T1230Z-160827T1630Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILL IL-COOK IL-LAKE IN-
730 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RISES FOR...
EASTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...
COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT

* AT 727 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. REPORTS OF ONE AND A QUARTER TO NEARLY TWO INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM VOLUNTEER OBSERVERS. MOST OF THIS
HAS FELL SINCE 300 AM.

[Tom]

CPC's Week 3-4 Outlook certainly flipped!  Looks like summer will continue holding on...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah, Tom. The flip back to warm happened faster than we all thought BUT, it does fit all analogs I have for now that I believe will see us through the fall.

[Tom]

Here were the local rainfall totals from yesterday...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/pastevents/2016/Aug27/27Aug2016rainfall.png

 

 

Low 80's and a touch of humidity today through Tuesday, but Wed - Sat look fantastic.  Possible low/mid 70's are in the forecast on both Thursday/Friday with some cool nights and dewpoints in the low 50's.  Should feel quite nice to have several days in a row where the humidity is gone and A/C turned off and the smell of bon fires in the neighborhood!

[Tom]

Both Euro/GFS backing off the torchy Labor Day weekend.  Maybe one day of warm weather on Sunday, but all in all a seasonal look to it.  Could be a soaker around these parts on Labor Day as a strong cold front tries to press on through Sunday night.

[westMJim]

Its with a tear in my eyes as we are now winding down the summer of 2016. This has been a warm and wet summer here in Grand Rapids and Grand Rapids.  Every month has been above average temperature wise and August is now the second wettest August in Grand Rapids history at the last report there has been 7.95” at the airport the record for August is 8.46” in 1987. There has been 9.86” here at my house and for the summer Grand Rapids is now at 14.72” and I am at 15.06” Its been a very wet two months in the area. Just have to wonder if that will lead to a dry period for the upcoming winter?

[Tom]

Starting Wednesday, this 7-day forecast looks phenomenal...some models even suggest temps near 70F on Thursday with a stiff breeze off the lake!  Hello September!

 

[Tom]

FYI, I started a September Thread...the end to our warm and wet summer is coming to close this week...

[jaster220]

Its with a tear in my eyes as we are now winding down the summer of 2016. This has been a warm and wet summer here in Grand Rapids and Grand Rapids.  Every month has been above average temperature wise and August is now the second wettest August in Grand Rapids history at the last report there has been 7.95” at the airport the record for August is 8.46” in 1987. There has been 9.86” here at my house and for the summer Grand Rapids is now at 14.72” and I am at 15.06” Its been a very wet two months in the area. Just have to wonder if that will lead to a dry period for the upcoming winter?

 

I like a wet Summer. Normally you won't follow that with a wet autumn so winter could be wet like summer. In a really good year (81-82) a wet autumn can continue into the winter but those are the exception it would seem. 

[Tom]

Yesterday we had several SLOW moving cells that dumped torrential rains.  I was just to the east but places not far from me received 1-3" in a short period causing some pretty bad flooding.  This morning, another line of slow moving storms moved on through.  The pattern over the last couple days reminds me of the tropics.  It's been a muggy, moist and warm atmosphere.

 

I'm not surprised that August will go down in the books as the stormiest Aug in the past 75 years!  

 

[Hawkeye]

We did not add any rain the last few days so my August total is 7.16".

[Tom]

August is coming to a close today.  It has been an active, warm and almost had a tropical "feel" for most of the month.  For the majority of the Lakes/Midwest region, it has been above normal both temp & precip wise.  Not much rain is expected today, so I don't see much change in the map below.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/mrcc/MonthPDeptMRCC.png

 

 

Temp wise, the farther east you go, the warmer it got...

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/mrcc/MonthTDeptMRCC.png

 

 

The Plains region and points west were spared from most of the heat..

 

 

 

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nwscr/MonthTDeptNWSCR.png

[Tom]

Just incredible footage of what the Monsoon can do in the CO region...

 

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/5104473222001/colorado-springs-hit-by-flooding-and-several-feet-of-hail?autoStart=true&utm_source=accuweather&utm_medium=accuweather&utm_campaign=awx_videowal_lin

[Niko]

Anyone notice how active the tropics have gotten. Hawaii is a one-2-punch!

[westMJim]

Welcome to September and the start of the fall season. With August 2016 now mostly in the record books, here at Grand Rapids we ended the month with a mean temperature of 73.5° and that was good for +2.7° the average high for the month was 83.4° and the average low was 63.7° the warmest day was 92° the coolest low was 53° and it was a wet month as well with 7.97” of rain falling and that is good 2^nd place in the all time August rain fall for Grand Rapids with only the 8.47” that fell in 1987 being more. Around the area Lansing was also much warmer than average with a mean of 73.9° and that is +4.1°  Lansing had 6.63” of rain.  Over at Muskegon they had a mean temperature of 73.2° and that is +3.3° To our east Detroit mean was 76.7° (+4.7°) and they had 5.62” of rain. At Flint their mean for August was 75.5° (+6.7) Up north Alpena mean was 71.2° (5.8°) but they were much drier with only 1.92” of rain. At the Soo they had a mean of 69.2° (+4.6) and 4.32” of rain, At the Soo it was the warmest August since 1947 (69.8) and over at Marquette the August mean temperature was 65.9° (+2.2°) all around Michigan it was a warmer and in most locations wetter than average August.

[Tom]

Illinois experienced its second wettest August on record, with August 1977 being in first place.  The July-August period was the wettest on record.  Is there a connection to the winter of 1977-78???  Hmmm, just pondering on the idea.

 

https://climateillinois.wordpress.com/2016/08/29/wettest-july-august-second-wettest-august-in-illinois/?utm_content=buffer92977&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[OKwx2k4]

Was thinking 78-79 but I'll sure take a 77-78! It was even better!