August 2016 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

NAM high rez models showing the nocturnal jet firing up a severe line of storms in S WI that bleeds south into N IL later this evening...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016081112/nam4km_ref_frzn_ncus_15.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016081112/nam4km_apcpn_ncus_12.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016081112/namconus_apcpn_ncus_12.png

 

 

Flood Watches may be extended farther east into WI/IL if trends continue through this afternoon.  We need the rain, it's been bone dry here over the last 12 days or so.  Only 0.02" of rain officially at ORD.

[Hawkeye]

The morning outflow pushed way down to the Missouri border.  This evening's storms may pop in the Sioux City to Fort Dodge area and head east/south from there.  I'm hoping we can get some heating this afternoon.

[OKwx2k4]

A lot of you folks up there are going to catch up in the rain department pretty soon.

[Tom]

NAM high rez showing some intense training storms over portions of IA/WI/IL later tonight...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016081118/nam4km_apcpn_ncus_16.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016081118/namconus_apcpn_ncus_16.png

[Tom]

Local in-house & RPM models are spitting out some hefty 2-5" rains in N IL through tomorrow evening...that would be welcomed moisture to soak the garden and vegetation.  Ground is already starting to get hard.

[Hawkeye]

NAM high rez showing some intense training storms over portions of IA/WI/IL later tonight...

 

The training storms ended up right through Cedar Rapids.  3-4 inches has fallen across the city, with up to 4.7" in a couple spots outside the city.

[Hawkeye]

My overnight rain total is 3.62", and I was even in a relative dry pocket.  5-6 inches fell in a narrow band south of the city.

[Tom]

The training storms ended up right through Cedar Rapids.  3-4 inches has fallen across the city, with up to 4.7" in a couple spots outside the city.

Hoping to get drenching storms later this afternoon.  Flash Flood Watches were indeed extended into S WI/N IL last night.  Need a good soaker.

 

 

It was such a warm and humid night last night.  The urban heat island effect was in full effect.  Heat Index values close to 90F at 3:00am.

 

 

 

 

At this hour, its a balmy 78F with a 71F dewpoint.  Atmosphere is primed to produce robust downpours.

 

Meantime, here are the latest JMA Weeklies.  Week 1 you can see the cooling coming for the central Plains up towards the western Lakes.  Week 2 the trough moves towards the Lakes and generally speaking, near seasonal temps for most of us.  Week 3 & 4 the model is seeing blocking over the top developing with a possible anticyclone forming near the desert southwest.

[Tom]

Major relief heading towards the central Plains next Fri-Sun according to the Euro...GFS playing catch up...

 

Fri..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081200/ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png

 

Sat...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081200/ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png

 

Sun...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081200/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png'

[chances14]

We had record moisture levels yesterday for southern Michigan according to DTX. You don't often see heat indexes struggle to get below 80 in the overnight hours

 

can't wait until this humid weather is gone for good this year

[Tom]

12z GFS now advertising a wound up Great Lakes early Autumn like storm next weekend.  Unfortunately, this is the weekend of the Air and Water Show.  If trends continue, might have to attend the Friday practice runs instead.

 

998mb SLP...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016081212/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_37.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016081212/gfs_T2m_ncus_38.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016081212/gfs_T2m_ncus_41.png

[Tom]

It's official, Arctic mean temps have gone subfreezing (0C)...they may start free falling if EPS/GEFS are right Day 5-10.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

[Tom]

Wow, I'm just mind blown if this comes to fruition.  I just did some calculations and here we are, nearly 317 days since October 1st when our 2016-17 LRC cycle began and the main features of each cycle are showing up for next weekend.  Let's see how this unfolds.  Remember the GHD storm???  Well, well, well...the GFS in back to back runs is trying to spin up this storm system in nearly the same position/track as it did back in early Feb!  

 

Pretty amazing how it's still being advertised for next weekend.  Lets see if the GFS is right and the EURO will play catch up.  I, personally, am very interested to see if this storm system forms or not.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016081218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_33.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016081218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_36.png

[OKwx2k4]

Lots of great stuff posted since I last checked here today. Looks like an early arctic freeze this year. I wonder how quickly we'll see the annual ice minimum up there this year. A powerhouse great Lakes storm in mid August is definitely something to take note of. So is seeing the trailing low and big associated trough. Lastly, no more upper 90s for me for awhile. Mid 80s for highs the next week or so. Looks like I survived the Oklahoma torch for one more summer. :-)

[Tom]

Nice doughnut hole right over my area in NE IL...torrential rains in the S/SW burbs last night caused some major flooding as training storms pummeled the area.  The state fair got called off early as flooding occured and cars/trailers were under feet of water.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

That flooded parking lot full of pickups and RVs is going to be very costly.

[Tom]

That flooded parking lot full of pickups and RVs is going to be very costly.

That was the first thing I thought of when I saw it on the news last night.  Insurance claims up the Wazooo!

[OKwx2k4]

That's some impressive rainfall!

[Tom]

Both GFS/EURO are dialing up some pretty impressive negative departures next weekend!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081312/ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081312/ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081312/ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png

[Tom]

Nice pool of "cool" in the west/central states over the next 2 weeks...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

CPC thinking it continues Week 3-4...interesting...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

[Thunder98]

Eau Claire, WI got 2.56" on Thursday.

[OKwx2k4]

Yes sir Tom! Such pretty blue colors on those maps! Maybe no more 90s for me at all!

[OKwx2k4]

Sunny and a high of 81 today with low humidity. Best day since late May for me today. Already down to 72. Love it.

[OKwx2k4]

Not even going to get warmer than 84 here for an entire week. Just can't get much better for August in my opinion.

[Tom]

Not even going to get warmer than 84 here for an entire week. Just can't get much better for August in my opinion.

Looks like a few days of upper 80's and storms later this week, but this weekend and possibly the entire week the following week will stay in the 70's!  A taste of perfection looks to be in store for a long stretch.

 

Both GEFS/EPS are showing a highly amplified N.A. pattern starting this weekend and through the extended.  CFSv2 sniffed this out a couple weeks ago.  Surprisingly, it is showing this pattern continuing into the early part of September.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

[Tom]

Over the past 7-10 days, the western Pacific has been active and will continue over the next 2 weeks.  Check out how much the waters have cooled off near Japan.  You can almost see the track in which these tropical systems took.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_wpac_1.png

 

 

Notice how massive the blob of warm waters in the N PAC have expanded and the tongue of colder waters to the south that stretch from Asia to the west coast of Cali.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

I find this interesting, the CFS model is sniffing out some snows to fall in late August/early Sept near Siberia as a trough tries to place itself in that region.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/15/basis00/noas/weas/16090100_1500.gif

 

 

00z EPS Day 10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016081500/ecmwf-ens_z500a_fe_11.png

 

 

 

GEFS day 12...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016081500/gfs-ens_z500a_fe_51.png

 

Day 15...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016081500/gfs-ens_z500a_fe_65.png

[jaster220]

Had a bunch of heavy training storms about 1am Saturday morning and now we're under a Flood Watch for 3 more inches. With a little roof issue, I didn't need this to flip so hard here in August. 

[Tom]

Had a bunch of heavy training storms about 1am Saturday morning and now we're under a Flood Watch for 3 more inches. With a little roof issue, I didn't need this to flip so hard here in August. 

Looks like your in the prime spot to get some heavy rains...hope I can somehow squeeze some precip outta this.  My area didn't get much from last weeks event.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016081514/hrrr_apcpn_ncus_15.png

[jaster220]

Looks like your in the prime spot to get some heavy rains...hope I can somehow squeeze some precip outta this.  My area didn't get much from last weeks event.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016081514/hrrr_apcpn_ncus_15.png

 

My how the tables have turned since June, eh?

[Tom]

The system that is tracking up towards the lower lakes almost has a defo band look to it.  N IN/S MI in the sweet spot with this...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016081520/hrrr_apcpn_ncus_15.png

[Tom]

Arctic temps free falling, similar to what they did back in 2013, although slightly behind the pace back then.  We'll see how much colder it gets from here.  Taking a look at the extended, the pattern is favorable for much below normal temps over the next 10-15 days.

 

Current...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

 

 

2013...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png

[jaster220]

Well over 2.5" fell at my place and some of the heaviest squalls were hitting as I was heading out this morning. This feels more like a remnant hurricane with the winds and strati-form style rains. We are more than saturated now. The red flood warning icon will hopefully return as a red WSW headline with a winter repeat.    Actually, this system reminded me a bit of the December 28th sleet system tbh.

[Tom]

I'm liking where the pattern is heading to close out the month of August.  Finally, just finally we may have a stretch of temps in the 70's and very cool nights!  

 

Signs pointing on the CFSv2 that we may have a cool/chilly Labor Day weekend.  Would fit the LRC and main feature of our cyclical pattern.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20160815.NAsfcT.gif

[Tom]

The month so far has been near normal for the bread basket of the nation.  Wonder how much these positive departures will be erased as we close out the month of August...especially for those near the Lakes/OV region.  EPS/GEFS show dramatic cooling Week 1-2.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

[Tom]

Interesting to see the CFSv2 trending for a cooler September...JB's endless summer forecast may not pan out as hoped...this summer season's transition out of a strong Nino hasn't panned out as previous strong Nino's of the past.  The LRC was a great tool.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201609.gif

[OKwx2k4]

My general thinking at the moment is for a continuation of cooler conditions through mid-september with a rebound in temperatures relative to average late September and throughout most of October. I know there's no guidance out yet that supports this but just my 2 cents worth. The rest of this month looks AMAZING for August. Especially down here as far as me.

[james1976]

72/51 forecast for my area this next Monday. I like that.

[james1976]

Love this time of year as we head toward autumn and daylight starts getting less and the cooler weather sets in. Leaves start changing. The smell of bonfires in the neighborhood. Looking forward to fall and seeing how the new pattern sets up.

[james1976]

How's that storm looking for this weekend and the cool shot?

[OKwx2k4]

The cool shot is still looking very impressive. Idk about the storm. Looks like good rains for our entire region though over the next 7 days.