August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF shows a heat wave out here next week while its cooler in Minnesota.   

 

Figures.   I wanted cool and rainy while we were gone because we can't be watering.   That massive vortex over AK has heat wave written all over it for the PNW.

 

 

 

 

Some signs pointing toward warmth starting around that time

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016080112/gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

[James Jones]

Evening highs are definitely a tricky beast. 71 at 5pm and BOOM!!!!!!!!!! It's 95 degrees at 7pm.

 

Wear light clothing and get plenty of clear fluids.

Vodka?

[Front Ranger]

Still looks too far north and too weak to bring rain. Probably just sunny, pleasant days for most of the area.

 

Yeah, the trajectory argues for mostly dry, but it's definitely cooler than some other recent runs. Below normal for sure.

[Jesse]

Some signs pointing toward warmth starting around that time

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

 

It's interesting how different your guys' 850mb charts look from ours down here:

 

 

A decent signal for a heat event around day 10, but still a much cooler look overall.

 

I'm thinking if we do get a mid-August heat event it will possibly lead to a cooler and wetter last 1/3 of the month.

[Phil]

What'll probably happen is: WAF surge in NWPAC --> NPAC jet extension --> downstream anticyclonic response (western ridge) --> jet retraction as EFs go equatorward --> anticyclone (ridge) retrogrades offshore under the collapse --> downstream cyclonic response (western trough).

 

So, essentially a repeat of the progression we just went through from late July through today/this week.

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny and 75F here at the noon hour. Might have a shot at some convection early tomorrow morning.

[Front Ranger]

What'll probably happen is: WAF surge in NWPAC --> NPAC jet extension --> downstream anticyclonic response (western ridge) --> jet retraction as EFs go equatorward --> anticyclone (ridge) retrogrades offshore under the collapse --> downstream cyclonic response (western trough).

 

So, essentially a repeat of the progression we just went through from late July through today/this week.

 

Sounds reasonable. Cool first week of August, warm second week, cool again third week, and then maybe around normal last week? That's the progression I'd guess at this point.

 

It might even match Tim's localized analogs.

[James Jones]

What'll probably happen is: WAF surge in NWPAC --> NPAC jet extension --> downstream anticyclonic response (western ridge) --> jet retraction as EFs go equatorward --> anticyclone (ridge) retrogrades offshore under the collapse --> downstream cyclonic response (western trough).

 

So, essentially a repeat of the progression we just went through from late July through today/this week.

Any idea for September?

[BLI snowman]

Shame that our window for 110+ temps is rapidly closing as we enter the not-quite-as-hot sun angle season. Summer 2016 will go down as another year of lost potential.

[Jesse]

Shame that our window for 110+ temps is rapidly closing as we enter the not-quite-as-hot sun angle season. Summer 2016 will go down as another year of lost potential.

Sun angle is RAPIDLY approaching early-May levels!

 

Are you still feeling an August cool anomaly party like it's 1995?

[BLI snowman]

Sun angle is RAPIDLY approaching early-May levels!

 

Are you still feeling an August cool anomaly party like it's 1995?

 

Looks like another pretty frighteningly average month. 

[Jesse]

Looks like another pretty frighteningly average month.

I would agree on the whole.

[TT-SEA]

Hazy... looking forward to rain and an air cleaning tomorrow.

[Geos]

4km NAM showing convective showers tomorrow. Can kind of make out where the PSCZ will fire up.

 

[Geos]

WRF NMM and ARW really showing that PSCZ right along I-90. Showing 1" amounts...

 

 

[TT-SEA]

WRF NMM and ARW really showing that PSCZ right along I-90. Showing 1" amounts...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Welcome to central King County!  

 

We get all kinds of action here.   Sometimes its annoying and sometimes its really fun.    Summer rain and convection in a c-zone is fun.   So is c-zone snow.

 

I would LOVE an inch of rain tomorrow.  

[TT-SEA]

Inversion appears to have broken in Seattle... temps warmed up quickly and the haze has cleared.   Still sort of lingering to the east against the mountains though.

 

[Jesse]

Models definitely seem to be trending cooler with the trough next weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Clearly the inversion is gone because SEA went from 59 at noon to 76 at 5 p.m.

 

Might still go a little higher.  

 

It will be interesting to see if it returns on Wednesday and Thursday or if there was just something different about the weekend trough.

[snow_wizard]

The ensemble espread from the 11th on is pretty crazy.  Must be a typhoon entering the picture.  Those things can create some wildly amplified patterns.

[snow_wizard]

Models definitely seem to be trending cooler with the trough next weekend.

 

It's showing up nicely on the 18z ensemble.  The trough tomorrow shows up as a pretty impressive crash on the 850mb temperature profile.

[Jesse]

It's too bad the increased frequency of obs puts out so much bogus data.

[Deweydog]

It's too bad the increased frequency of obs puts out so much bogus data.

Gonna make fall and winter that much more stressful.

[Jesse]

Gonna make fall and winter that much more stressful.

Maybe for you.

 

Do you think it's a rounding issue?

[Deweydog]

Maybe for you.

 

Do you think it's a rounding issue?

I have no idea. It's been this way for a long time whenever the obs go haywire, which was typically event-generated. Seems like foggy mornings would often do it, probably because of shifting visibilities.

 

All in all, it's a minor inconvenience at best.

[Jesse]

I have no idea. It's been this way for a long time whenever the obs go haywire, which was typically event-generated. Seems like foggy mornings would often do it, probably because of shifting visibilities.

 

All in all, it's a minor inconvenience at best.

Interesting. The shifting visibilities explanation makes sense.

[Deweydog]

Interesting. The shifting visibilities explanation makes sense.

At any rate, I think the obs are taken from one of the NWS mets' 2012 Nissan Altima's car thermometer. He religiously parks in the shade for accuracy's sake.

[TT-SEA]

Most everyone gets some rain tomorrow... except the new desert areas of Olympia and parts of Vancouver Island.  

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_pcp24.36.0000.gif

[GHweatherChris]

Most everyone gets some rain tomorrow... except the new desert areas of Olympia and parts of Vancouver Island.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_pcp24.36.0000.gif

Hot D**n!! Might see some sprinkles tomorrow, thank goodness, the dandelions need some water.

[TT-SEA]

GFS is way deeper with the Sunday trough.   I like that.

 

Too tired to make it to the ECMWF tonight.     Not ignoring it if the heat wave disappears on that run... just sleeping.

[Deweydog]

GFS is way deeper with the Sunday trough. I like that.

 

Too tired to make it to the ECMWF tonight. Not ignoring it if the heat wave disappears on that run... just sleeping.

I'd post a reaction to both scenarios if I were you.

[TT-SEA]

I'd post a reaction to both scenarios if I were you.

 

 

Probably should.

[Front Ranger]

GFS is way deeper with the Sunday trough.   I like that.

 

Too tired to make it to the ECMWF tonight.     Not ignoring it if the heat wave disappears on that run... just sleeping.

 

July was quite the roller coaster. You're forgiven for taking a break.

[TT-SEA]

July was quite the roller coaster. You're forgiven for taking a break.

Canadian and GFS are much farther south with the weekend ULL. I like to see that.

[Front Ranger]

Canadian and GFS are much farther south with the weekend ULL. I like to see that.

 

The warm early August scenario is looking iffy.

[TT-SEA]

The warm early August scenario is looking iffy.

It definitely is now.

[Front Ranger]

Quick cooling again tonight. Many places already into the 50s.

[Geos]

Reached 77° here today. Down to 61° currently.

Point forecast has rain starting around 5am.

[snow_wizard]

The weekend is looking pretty darn cool on the GFS.  The WRF spits out possible highs in the 60s both Sat and Sun.  The decent low at SEA this morning was well timed.  It got the month off to a below normal start!

[snow_wizard]

The warm early August scenario is looking iffy.

 

What warm early August scenario is that?  It has looked cool all along.