August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

The warmth continues up this way.  +3F at Victoria YYJ today. 

[Jesse]

The new 00z GFS shows a west coast ridge wants to build around the middle of the month. This is due to a western pacific typhoon that looks like it will develop and recurve before hitting Japan. Depending on where the ridge sets up, we could have another heat wave in store for the PNW.

 

 

Are we in for another 5+ days in the triple digits like we just saw?

[snow_wizard]

The new 00z GFS shows a west coast ridge wants to build around the middle of the month. This is due to a western pacific typhoon that looks like it will develop and recurve before hitting Japan. Depending on where the ridge sets up, we could have another heat wave in store for the PNW.

 

 

Hour 384 ?

[Jesse]

Back home now. Love seeing temps around 60 degrees in the evening at the meteorological peak of the warm season. It's been a great summer so far.

[snow_wizard]

SEA dropped quite impressively in the past couple of hours when their wind shifted to NW.  They are only 2 degrees above their normal low as of 11pm.

[snow_wizard]

Back home now. Love seeing temps around 60 in the evening at the meteorological peak of the warm season. It's been a great summer so far.

 

The first third of August is looking really cool now.

[Jesse]

The first third of August is looking really cool now.

I love it. Hope it keeps up.

[Front Ranger]

What warm early August scenario is that?  It has looked cool all along.

 

Tim's. He said recently a couple of times that he expected the first 10 days to end up warm.

[Front Ranger]

SEA dropped quite impressively in the past couple of hours when their wind shifted to NW.  They are only 2 degrees above their normal low as of 11pm.

 

Looks like a lot of places will have lows just as cool as this morning, with highs probably 10 degrees cooler than today.

 

Which means some -6 to -8s are probably in order tomorrow. Not bad.

[snow_wizard]

Tim's. He said recently a couple of times that he expected the first 10 days to end up warm.

 

[Geos]

57° here and still dropping. 

 

Sunset tonight.

 

[Jesse]

I never said that. You said we wouldn't see a heat wave and I said we would. I was right, you were wrong.

There was no point where I said we wouldn't see heat late last week.

 

Although if you want to get technical, Portland never saw an actual heatwave, since 3 consecutive 90+ days is the unofficial benchmark.

[Jesse]

Warm spell is gone from the end of the 00z Euro. Fairly cool run overall.

[snow_wizard]

You have to look at the other models to see whether or not things in the long range look believable or not. The new 00z EURO shows the Western Pacific Typhoon recurving just before it hits Japan. This will pump up a huge West Coast Ridge.  

 

 

 

 

It could end up being a huge GOA ridge which would make us very cool.  The ECMWF appears to show the reformed typhoon tracking very north into the Bering Sea.  Not a great place to pump up a West Coast ridge.

[snow_wizard]

Warm spell is gone from the end of the 00z Euro. Fairly cool run overall.

 

 

Quite interesting at the end with abnormally high heights over the Aleutians.  At day 10 I really can't see it getting hot any time soon after that.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, everybody can predict a heat wave a few days out. It takes skill to predict one longer than that.

 

I was one of the very first ones to say we will see it a long ways out and you quickly shot me down, you said "No way".  Hillsboro for a 6 day span hit 89/89/85/90/95/95 and Salem 89/89/88/92/96/97. That is what I would classify as a "Heat Wave" if you want to get technical. 

 

SEA never even hit 90.  In recent years hitting 90 has been no big deal for them.  To not even get there is a non event.

[snow_wizard]

The actual track of where it actually ends up will change as we get closer. The EURO is pretty adamant that it will recurve just before hitting Japan and it's showing that is actually deepens as it recurves out to sea and heads for the Aleutian Islands. In any case, we absolutely do not what to see this happen in the Winter time at all. The winter of 2014-2015 was basically destroyed for us here in the PNW because of Typhoon Nuri. Luckily in La Nina winters, typhoons head to mainland China more so than in El Nino winters. If we see Western Pacific Typhoons start recurving starting in November we are in big trouble here in the PNW.

 

I'm not totally sure about that.  We have an abnormally strong and persistent GOA ridge this year.  A recurving typhoon could serve to amplify it even more.  There is much more to the abnormal warmth of March 2014 through earlier this year than just the typhoon you mentioned.  We had a very strong and very long lasting El Nino.  Much like what happened in the early 1940s and that period was also a wild torch.

[Jesse]

Yeah, everybody can predict a heat wave a few days out. It takes skill to predict one longer than that.

 

I was one of the very first ones to say we will see it a long ways out and you quickly shot me down, you said "No way". Hillsboro for a 6 day span hit 89/89/85/90/95/95 and Salem 89/89/88/92/96/97. That is what I would classify as a "Heat Wave" if you want to get technical.

 

Good job! Although you were throwing out some pretty wild numbers early on that never really verified.

 

The "No Way" was part of a running joke between Dewey and myself, FWIW.

[Jesse]

Quite interesting at the end with abnormally high heights over the Aleutians. At day 10 I really can't see it getting hot any time soon after that.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing.

 

The warm spell at the end of the 12z Euro was looking pretty flimsy at face value anyway. The whole set up was dependent on a low cutting off in just the right spot. That kind of thing is usually subject to a lot of change, especially in the long range.

[MossMan]

Warm morning, currently 57 degrees.

[Jesse]

Less of a warm spell signal in the long range on the 06z ensembles.

 

 

Also interesting to note average 850mb temps starting to creep downward as we head into the middle of August. Summer begins to wane soon.

[Phil]

The actual track of where it actually ends up will change as we get closer. The EURO is pretty adamant that it will recurve just before hitting Japan and it's showing that is actually deepens as it recurves out to sea and heads for the Aleutian Islands. In any case, we absolutely do not what to see this happen in the Winter time at all. The winter of 2014-2015 was basically destroyed for us here in the PNW because of Typhoon Nuri. Luckily in La Nina winters, typhoons head to mainland China more so than in El Nino winters. If we see Western Pacific Typhoons start recurving starting in November we are in big trouble here in the PNW.

Definitely disagree with the bolded, and the "typhoon rule" in general. There are instances (like the upcoming one) where recurving typhoons do temporarily affect the NPAC state, and there are others where the effects of said recurving typhoons are insignificant.

 

Either way, the impact is very not long lasting.

[snow maniac]

Sunshine and clear this morning, looks like I will be in the banana belt again.

[ShawniganLake]

A few storms popping in SW BC this morning, all of the lightning has been well to the north of me so far however.

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/lightning6.jpg

[Phil]

What warm early August scenario is that? It has looked cool all along.

It was my thinking for awhile also, so I busted there too.

 

I don't blame Tim for making that prediction because in most years like this, it'd have been a good call. Unfortunately, we haven't seen a background state like this (IO/WPAC-EPAC gradient, ongoing collapse/realignment of QBO wave) in recorded history. It's now painfully obvious that equator-pole conduits are very much off-climo for a typical Niña (or any ENSO background, for that matter).

 

There's also the fact that SC24 looks to be the shortest cycle in recorded history, assuming history and current trends hold firm going forward. This may have a number of potential implications, both for weather/climate and solar activity itself over the next several decades.

[Phil]

It's funny, because I had my Niña/-QBO analogs all ready to go back in April/May, thinking this would be an easy winter to forecast. Was planning on watching trends in IO/WPAC SSTAs and solar forcing, then finalizing a winter idea in September.

 

Then, the downwelling QBO wave collapsed above 10mb, with easterly shear reversing in the upper sigmas, while westerly shear reversed below 30mb, with corresponding back-return easterlies redeveloping. These easterlies are now waning ahead of the westerlies, which are now downwelling (slowly) from 40mb, and should reach 50mb by October.

 

Then, if that weren't bad enough, the IO-PAC gradient/W-H intensity ratio(s) decided to throw a curveball less than 4 weeks afterward, entering a state never observed before (in a developing Niña). This is reflected in the ongoing -IOD event.

 

As I've looked more closely at these two anomalies, it's becoming clear that they are inherently related, and/or part of the same large scale entropic process that is ongoing.

 

Long story short, what looked like perhaps the most boring/predictable winter in decades has morphed into what looks like the most unusual, unpredictable winter any time in modern history. So, fascinating times are ahead!

[MossMan]

33 degrees and light snow currently in Barrow...it's only a matter of time before we are flirting with the "S" word.

In other news it has been a dry morning around my area, through I did drive through about a mile span of drizzle on my way to work.

[TT-SEA]

33 degrees and light snow currently in Barrow...it's only a matter of time before we are flirting with the "S" word.

In other news it has been a dry morning around my area, through I did drive through about a mile span of drizzle on my way to work.

 

 

Lots of orographic drizzle this morning... hoping for some real rain this afternoon once the ULL passes.

 

Looks sunny by mid to late morning tomorrow... and well into the 80s in Seattle by Thursday.

[Jesse]

Already mostly sunny down here. Low 850mb temps aren't great for thick cloud cover this time of year. Today may get a little warmer than expected as a result.

[TT-SEA]

Looking like it might be a good weekend to be elsewhere.   And let nature water everything again.   

[Geos]

Drizzle started here as well. Sitting right around 60°.

[TT-SEA]

Drizzle started here as well. Sitting right around 60°.

 

 

Sun has been shining here for most of the last hour... even with drizzle falling.   Sort of strange day.   Different orographic effects in play simultaneously.  

[Geos]

Sun has been shining here for most of the last hour... even with drizzle falling.   Sort of strange day.   Different orographic effects in play simultaneously.  

 

Didn't expect anyone in King County to have sun right now. Weird... !

Completely cloudy here.

 

[MossMan]

Lots of orographic drizzle this morning... hoping for some real rain this afternoon once the ULL passes.

 

Looks sunny by mid to late morning tomorrow... and well into the 80s in Seattle by Thursday.

The drizzle has just started at my work, looking forward to a warm and sunny couple of days coming up!

[TT-SEA]

Didn't expect anyone in King County to have sun right now. Weird... !

Completely cloudy here.

 

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/1km/Seattle/VIS1SEA.GIF

 

The hills are creating holes in the clouds... you can see the thin break over my area on that image.

 

Seems to be filling in now.

[Phil]

Anyone thinking about making a winter forecast this year should give this a read, IMO. Sometimes it's the bare fundamentals that are overlooked.

 

http://www.eps.jhu.edu/~cig4/GH11a.pdf

[TT-SEA]

Anyone thinking about making a winter forecast this year should give this a read, IMO. Sometimes it's the bare fundamentals that are overlooked.

 

http://www.eps.jhu.edu/~cig4/GH11a.pdf

 

 

Winter forecast is easy here... rain on most days, gloomy, damp cold.

[Geos]

Just had a pretty good downpour here. And I can see sun rays across the lake in Bellevue.

[Phil]

Winter forecast is easy here... rain on most days, gloomy, damp cold.

[Front Ranger]

Winter forecast is easy here... rain on most days, gloomy, damp cold.

Time for the meds?